As one of the most critical human phenomena, migration today is a global issue profoundly influencing social and international relations. The scope of its influence on the cultural, economic, political, and security dimensions of both origin and host societies is continuously expanding.
Conversely, this flow is mutually affected by changes in the international order or disorder, resulting in a continuous, upward trend, and constantly becoming intertwined with more complex issues.
Given the developments of recent years, numerous international bodies and organizations have been monitoring and analyzing current migration issues. This article will examine the most significant migration challenges and prospects for 2025.
In view of the trajectory of international developments in recent years, it was anticipated that both the world of politics and the world of migration would experience high levels of instability simultaneously in 2025, a trend confirmed by the events of the past few months. This instability is defined by systematic competition between the world's great powers, a multi-polar international order, greater state fragility, an increasing number of violent conflicts, rising terrorism, the weaponization of energy, and food insecurity. Specifically, the wars in Gaza and Ukraine have severely inflamed the threats posed by displacement.
Broadly, the most important current global migration issues can be summarized as follows:
1. Accelerating Global Displacement
2. Uncertain Future of Displacement Originating in the Middle East
3. Various Consequences of the Wars in Ukraine and Gaza
4. Global Impacts of a Second Trump Presidency on Migration
5. Uncertainty in Migration Trends
6. Host Societies' Focus (Including the EU) on Return Processes
7. A Stricter and More Restrictive Global Approach to Migration
8. Increase in Irregular Migration and the Need for Innovative Regulatory Solutions
9. Transition from Temporary Protection
10. Inequalities in Migration Policies
11. The Quietly Growing Role of Labor Migration
Despite the complex and multi-faceted nature of migration, state fragility and violent conflicts will remain the main drivers of migration trends in 2025, just as in previous years. According to the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), the number of forcibly displaced people rose to approximately 122.6 million by mid-2024, representing an 11.5% increase compared to 2023. Two billion people live in conflict-affected areas globally. These regions have expanded by 65% since 2021, with sub-Saharan African countries experiencing the greatest growth. All indicators suggest this trend will continue into 2025 and potentially intensify with escalating conflicts. However, due to sudden events and developments, both natural and human-made, global migration trends face uncertainty. This uncertainty encompasses migration routes, as well as the number and other metrics of migrants such as age, gender, and so forth, making the management of this phenomenon considerably more difficult.
The year 2024 cemented a global trend toward more restrictive migration policies. Many destination countries implemented measures to prevent physical access to their territory or to facilitate the return of undocumented populations in response to irregular migration flows and unmanaged displacement.
Countries like Finland, Poland, and Turkey undertook the expansion of fences and walls along their borders, and the new US administration also intends to resume construction of the wall along the border with Mexico. Furthermore, countries such as Algeria, Libya, Tunisia, Colombia, Panama, and Pakistan carried out mass expulsion programs in 2024 and intend to continue these policies in 2025—programs also announced by new US policymakers.
Meanwhile, the European Union is focusing on outsourcing asylum processing and enhancing return measures.
The Islamic Republic of Iran, which has historically been a generous host to refugees and migrants, is now facing a significant increase in irregular migrants and associated security sensitivities. This situation necessitates precise, long-term planning for managing the phenomenon. Overall, this is a global issue whose resolution requires mutual international understanding and support from relevant organizations, including the UN High Commissioner for Refugees.
Donald Trump's election campaign centered on promises of strict border reforms, domestic action, increased deportations, and the termination of humanitarian protection and regularization programs. This policy shift from the previous administration could, on one hand, divert migration flows from the United States to Europe and other regions. The impact on the European migration policy debate will further empower proponents of stricter deportations and increase political pressure on countries of origin and transit.
In recent years, the European Union has had positive experiences in concluding agreements with neighboring countries that emphasize economic cooperation and, in addition to migration control, allow for the cautious opening of labor migration channels. The impact of changing US rhetoric and policies on Europe could challenge this partnership-based approach, especially if the new US administration successfully implements the large-scale deportations it has announced. In 2025, European policymakers can be expected to place greater emphasis on rapid, high-profile measures to contain irregular migration.
In 2025, the European Union and its member states are focused on the implementation of the new Pact on Migration and Asylum. Nevertheless, last year saw concerns raised that this legislative package is insufficient in some areas and that more measures are needed to address irregular arrivals.
This reinforced calls for innovative solutions. These solutions primarily focused on outsourcing asylum procedures but also placed renewed emphasis on establishing 'return hubs' in third countries.
The experience with outsourcing models, such as the Italy-Albania Memorandum of Understanding, has exposed a range of legal, operational, and political challenges. Given the significantly greater challenges that 'return hubs' will face, it remains to be seen whether the establishment and operationalization of such centers will be feasible by the end of 2025.
Overall, limited success in implementing the return of foreign nationals is widely viewed as a fundamental weakness in the European migration system. Recent data indicates that only one in five third-country nationals ordered to leave the EU actually does so. European decision-makers have therefore designated increasing the number of returns as a key policy priority in 2025.
The regime change in Syria was one of the most important geopolitical events of the past year. This development is likely to have a major impact on displacement dynamics and has already sparked a debate about the potential for lifting the protection status of Syrian refugees and their return to their homeland. However, such returns will only be possible once a wide range of political, practical, and legal issues have been resolved, and security and economic conditions on the ground have significantly improved. Governments must prepare for the ongoing precarious migration status, including pendulum movements into and out of Syria, temporary and permanent returns, and further displacement. Achieving widespread and sustainable returns will be challenging, at least in 2025. Host countries may prefer to encourage voluntary returns in line with the reconstruction of Syria; however, insecurity and escalating internal conflict in Syria will again block voluntary returns.
The issue of Palestinian displacement and the dilemmas of refugee camps in neighboring countries, particularly in Lebanon, have also become critically complicated, especially as the genocide and forced displacement of Palestinians in Gaza have made the situation even more dire. The scope of conflicts in the Middle East will certainly affect Europe and the West more than before, possessing the capability, like a time bomb, to instantly destroy all plans and agreements for regulating migration in Europe and make the situation uncontrollable. Furthermore, the Ukraine war could have the same consequences for the West.
Experts predict that the Ukraine war will most likely continue as a prolonged war of attrition or enter a temporary ceasefire, likely without the return of occupied territories to Ukraine. These scenarios have a direct impact on displacement, migration, and return. A ceasefire could lead to the return of 1.2 to 2.1 million Ukrainians, while a full occupation of Ukraine by Russia could displace over 10 million more people. If the conflict in Ukraine takes a negative turn, European countries may again face refugee arrivals on a very large scale, all while they are already grappling with the shadow of the energy and economic crises.
By the end of October 2024, a total of 4.2 million Ukrainians were registered as beneficiaries of Temporary Protection (TP) in the EU. Labor market integration of Ukrainian TP beneficiaries has also made significant progress. Recent research has shown a substantial increase in the employment rate of Ukrainian migrants in European host countries in 2024. Against this backdrop, and with the end of Temporary Protection approaching in 2026, this year may see increased efforts to formulate a long-term transition plan across the EU. Key discussion points could include transitioning TP beneficiaries to other types of residence permits, pathways for facilitating circular mobility, and voluntary return programs linked to reconstruction. European policy is based on the principle that efforts must always prioritize protecting Ukraine's interests.
When comparing how Europe handles Ukrainian migrants versus other migrants, inequality in migration policies is clearly noticeable. The importance and priority given to Ukrainian migrants may be justifiable for decision-makers based on Europe's foreign policy, security principles, and foundations, but it will certainly be considered inequality and discrimination from a human rights and international law perspective, further complicating the migrant issue.
Finally, the issue of the quiet increase in labor migration and its growing role in migration diplomacy is noteworthy. This trend is palpable not only in Europe, as a hub for labor migration, but also in other parts of the world, especially in Arab and Asian countries. Europe, however, has addressed this phenomenon in a more planned manner than others. Last year, the number of work permits granted to non-EU citizens increased by 8.9%, seasonal work permits by 22.6%, and the number of EU Blue Cards by 8.8%. Given the effects of demographic change, this trend is not expected to reverse in 2025, even in the face of a potential economic downturn in the EU. Simultaneously, elements of labor migration and skills partnerships are being firmly integrated into the EU's migration diplomacy and agreements with non-European partners.
In conclusion, and in assessing the issues described, it must be considered that the phenomenon of migration, due to its crucial human element, has a far greater potential to become a crisis than is often realized. However, because of its direct relationship with order and disorder in international relations, the more the trajectory of global developments leans toward order, stability, and peace, the more positive effects migration will demonstrate. Conversely, the more unstable and insecure this path becomes, unmanaged migration can further complicate the situation.
Sheida Norouzi, Expert at the Center for Political and International Studies
(The opinions expressed are those of the authors and do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of the IPIS)