This report examines the short- and long-term consequences of the recent deployment of U.S. warships, amphibious assault ships, and a nuclear submarine adjacent to Venezuela’s coast.

By integrating field evidence, official statements, and a review of recent analytical sources, this paper analyzes the issue across three main dimensions:
1. Regional Strategic and Military Consequences: Examining the shifting balance of power and military movements.

2. Economic Impacts: Assessing the effects on Venezuela's oil exports and the attraction of foreign investment.

3. Political and Diplomatic Alliances: Analyzing the role of neighboring countries and the changing regional equations.

In conclusion, this report presents three probable scenarios for the coming months. The most likely scenario is that this force expansion:

• In the short term, serves primarily as a diplomatic pressure and display of force function, making a full-scale ground invasion unlikely.

• However, in the long term, it will lead to intensified domestic militarization in Venezuela, altered oil trade patterns, a worsening economic crisis, accelerated great power competition in the region, and the strengthening of alternative international alliances for Caracas.

The deployment of the United States Navy to waters adjacent to Venezuela in late August 2025 marks the largest military presence in this area in recent years. In recent days, the U.S. has increased its military presence near Venezuela by deploying several missile-equipped destroyers, amphibious vessels, and a nuclear submarine in the Southern Caribbean. Washington has officially justified this action under the framework of anti-drug cartel operations; however, the scale and composition of the deployed forces suggest broader strategic objectives beyond counter-narcotics operations. Venezuelan officials and some analysts have interpreted these movements as an effort

to pressure the Bolivarian government of Venezuela and shift the strategic calculations in the region.

This article seeks to answer the following key questions: What are the military consequences and how are forces being reciprocated? How will this military expansion affect Venezuela's fragile economy? And what role do neighboring countries play in escalating or de-escalating the crisis?

This analysis examines the developments following this naval deployment across military dimensions, economic repercussions (especially the oil market), political alliances, and regional reverberations. Understanding these interconnected factors is essential for predicting Venezuela’s trajectory and its impact on regional stability and global geopolitics. The situation is a classic example of asymmetric conflict between a global superpower and a resource-rich but economically weakened state, with its complexity heightened by the presence of various external actors.

Historical Context of U.S.-Venezuela Relations
The current confrontation is rooted in the history of relations between the U.S. and Venezuela, marked by cycles of cooperation and conflict. Since the early 20th century, U.S. involvement in Venezuela has primarily been driven by energy interests, with American companies playing a significant role in developing Venezuela's oil industry. The relationship changed with the election of Hugo Chávez in 1999 and the start of the "Bolivarian Revolution," which emphasized anti-American rhetoric and regional independence from Washington's influence.

Since about 2005, the U.S. has employed various coercive tools against Venezuela, starting with arms embargoes and expanding to comprehensive financial and oil sanctions in 2019. These actions have practically crippled Venezuela’s oil industry, reducing production from around three million barrels per day in the early 2000s to about 800,000 barrels per day in 2025, despite Venezuela having the world’s largest proven oil reserves. The strategic goal of these sanctions has been to deprive the Bolivarian government of revenue and encourage political change through economic pressure.

The current military deployment follows previous U.S. attempts to oust Maduro, including support for opposition leader Juan Guaidó in 2019 and a failed coup attempt in April 2020. What distinguishes the current situation is the direct military dimension, whereas previous pressures were mainly economic, diplomatic, or based on indirect interventions. This tendency toward a military show of force reflects the Trump administration's frustration with the limited effectiveness of previous measures and its willingness to adopt more aggressive approaches.

Military and Security Dimensions
The U.S. naval deployment represents a show of force that can serve multiple objectives. The Trump administration has officially declared the deployment to be in line with counter-narcotics efforts. However, the composition of the deployed forces seems disproportionate for a mere counter-narcotics operation; historical comparisons show that previous counter-drug operations in the Caribbean typically involved Coast Guard vessels and smaller surveillance systems, not destroyers and nuclear submarines. This suggests the likelihood of strategic objectives beyond the declared mission.
The deployment fits within the Trump administration's approach to what it calls "Narco-Terrorist Organizations." In February 2025, the administration designated groups, including the "Tren de Aragua," as Foreign Terrorist Organizations (FTOs) and set a substantial bounty for the capture of Maduro ($50 million). This classification provides a stronger legal framework for more decisive military action under the Authorization for Use of Military Force (AUMF).

Venezuela's reaction to the U.S. naval deployment has been characterized by maximum readiness and strategic mobilization by Caracas. Within just three days of the U.S. vessels passing through the Panama Canal, Venezuela moved over 15,000 military troops to strategic points on the border with Colombia. This action indicates that Caracas views these movements as an existential threat and is attempting to create a form of deterrence through a display of its defensive capabilities.

Furthermore, Nicolás Maduro ordered the full mobilization of the People's Militia network, announcing its membership at around four million. Although this figure is likely exaggerated for psychological impact, it signifies a strategy of asymmetric deterrence by threatening a prolonged resistance. These militias, while lacking advanced equipment, are capable of engaging in irregular warfare against any foreign ground operation, significantly raising the human cost of intervention.

Venezuela's conventional capabilities, although eroded by the economic crisis, still include some advanced systems acquired from Russia and China, such as Russian corvettes equipped with coastal defense missiles and Chinese surveillance drones. The country's air defense network, built around Russian S-300 systems, poses a potential threat to any aircraft in Venezuelan territory, though maintenance issues and spare parts shortages have likely reduced the operational effectiveness of these systems.

Economic Dimensions and Impact on the Oil Market
Venezuela holds the world's largest proven oil reserves, estimated at approximately 303 billion barrels as of 2023, accounting for roughly 17% of total global reserves.
Despite this immense resource wealth, the country's actual oil production has plunged dramatically. Chronic mismanagement, severe lack of investment, and U.S. sanctions are the main reasons for this, with Venezuela projected to supply only about 0.8% of global production in 2025. This vast gap between potential capacity and practical output is a prominent example of the resource curse in contemporary economic history.

U.S. sanctions against Venezuela's state-owned oil company, PDVSA, since 2019 have severely hit the oil sector and the broader economy. These sanctions restrict Venezuela's access to international markets and technology necessary for maintenance and production enhancement. The Trump administration’s decision in early 2025 to revoke a license for Chevron's operations in Venezuela further intensified the pressure, although some of these restrictions were partially reinstated in August 2025.

The current naval deployment could further restrict Venezuela's ability to export oil, even through indirect routes. Although the Maduro government has developed alternative mechanisms to circumvent sanctions, these are inefficient and cannot replace normal access to international markets. The presence of the U.S. Navy could disrupt even these alternative channels through heightened surveillance and the potential for seizures. This conflict will also have larger geopolitical effects on the energy market, likely keeping supply tighter than before.

China has emerged as Venezuela's main economic partner and a major destination for its oil exports, with Caracas sending about 400,000 barrels per day to Beijing, largely as repayment for previous loans. This relationship provides an economic lifeline to Venezuela while supporting China’s energy security. However, the U.S. naval deployment increases the risk of disrupting these arrangements. If the U.S. attempts to seize Venezuelan oil shipments heading to China, it could lead to global escalation. This situation creates a complex calculation for the global energy market.

Political-Diplomatic Dimensions and Regional Alliances
The international reaction to the U.S. deployment reflects conflicting views on the global order. China explicitly condemned the deployment, with a Foreign Ministry spokesperson announcing opposition to the interference of external actors in Venezuela's internal affairs under any pretext. This stance aligns with Beijing's principle of non-intervention and reflects China's concrete interests in Venezuela. Russia's reaction has also been supportive of Venezuela, framed within the defense of national sovereignty and opposition to any coercive intervention.

Regional countries have adopted varying approaches: from warning against military intervention and calling for diplomatic solutions and expressing concern about unilateral actions (Colombia, Mexico, and Brazil) to implicitly supporting U.S. security measures (parts of the Caribbean basin and Guyana).

This situation also tests regional institutions. Organizations like the Organization of American States (OAS) and the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC) have lost their mediating position due to ideological divisions among members and lack the ability to forge a unified response. If these bodies cannot facilitate dialogue or de-escalation, the decision-making process will lean toward bilateralism and extra-regional partnerships, further fracturing regional cooperation.

Consequently, this dispersion of positions signals the diplomatic polarization of the region and the complexity of managing cross-border crises, increasing the space for great power competition. Tensions between Venezuela and its neighbors could undermine economic cooperation and regional integration, reversing existing progress in mechanisms like the Pacific Alliance and Mercosur.

Future Scenarios and Predictions
Based on the assessment of the military, economic, political, and regional dimensions, three likely scenarios are predicted for the coming months:

Scenario 1: Prolonged Crisis and Stalemate (Most Likely)
This scenario involves a tense stability without large-scale military operations, characterized by the sustained U.S. naval presence, periodic crises, and continuous economic pressure. The probable consequences in this scenario are:
• Continued enforcement of U.S. sanctions with intermittent vessel seizures.
• Further economic weakening of Venezuela; government survival through adaptive mechanisms.

• Regional polarization between U.S. allies and critics of intervention.
• Gradual erosion of Venezuela’s oil production capacity due to lack of investment.
• Periodic diplomatic initiatives that rarely lead to fundamental breakthroughs.

Scenario 2: Limited Armed Conflict
In this scenario, a miscalculation or incident leads to limited armed conflict, such as the seizure of a vessel accused of drug trafficking resulting in an exchange of fire. This could initiate an escalation cycle involving limited air strikes against Venezuelan military or infrastructure targets, and asymmetric responses from Venezuela or its proxies. The probable consequences are:

• U.S. targeting of Venezuelan naval assets and oil facilities.
• Asymmetric responses by Venezuela including cyberattacks, proxy attacks against U.S. interests, or irregular warfare operations.
• Widespread international condemnation of U.S. actions, especially from China and Russia.
• A sharp spike in oil prices due to fears of supply disruption.
• An intensified wave of migration, overwhelming reception capacities in neighboring countries.

Scenario 3: De-escalation through Negotiation
In this path, tensions are reduced through diplomatic mediation, and specific sanctions relief is granted in exchange for concrete concessions from Venezuela. Potential conditions for this scenario:

• Mediation by neutral countries or institutions.
• Venezuela's commitment to electoral reforms and confidence-building measures.
• U.S. agreement to targeted sanctions relief and specific security guarantees.
• Cautious return of international energy companies to Venezuela.
• Relative stabilization of migratory flows and reduction of regional tensions.
Conclusion

The combined data suggests that the U.S. naval deployment has a dual function: on one hand, it symbolizes strategic pressure and an attempt to shape the international narrative against Caracas; on the other hand, the logical disproportion between the official justification (counter-trafficking) and the force deployment (given known trafficking routes) raises questions about the international legitimacy of the action.

The combined outcome of this situation, which aligns with some experts' view that the deployment is performative, will likely involve strengthening internal support circles and militia mobilization in Venezuela, a narrowing of the civil political space, and a shift in oil trade patterns and financial dependencies toward China and Russia.

However, the risks of localized clashes and regional chain reactions should not be ignored. The U.S. naval deployment near Venezuela marks a dangerous escalation in long-standing tensions that will have consequences beyond Venezuela's borders, including on regional stability, global energy markets, and non-proliferation norms. The final analysis is that, while a full-scale direct conflict appears avoidable, the current path is likely to lead towards a prolonged crisis rather than a quick, definitive resolution.

Parisa Rezaei Fadashkouyeh, Expert at the Center for Political and International Studies

(The opinions expressed are those of the authors and do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of the IPIS)