The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), encompassing ten member states and sixteen observer and dialogue partners, has evolved into a powerful alliance representing half of the global population and a significant portion of the world economy. Often recognized as a counterbalance to NATO, the organization is convening at a critical juncture.

Amid multiple crises affecting its members, China is hosting the largest summit in the organization's history since its founding in 2001, spanning today and tomorrow. This meeting will focus on three key issues: the US trade war with China and India, the war in Ukraine, and the Iranian nuclear file.

Xi Jinping, China's President, is hosting leaders from countries targeted by Western sanctions, including Iran, North Korea, Myanmar, and Belarus. Narendra Modi, India's Prime Minister, has confirmed his attendance after missing last year’s summit. Modi's presence comes as relations between India and the United States have reached a low point due to tariffs imposed on Indian goods following its purchase of oil from Russia.
In addition, a parade will be held on the sidelines of the summit, featuring the leaders of Russia and North Korea, as well as the Prime Minister of Slovakia, Robert Fico, and the President of Serbia, Aleksandar Vučić, further underscoring the strategic importance of this gathering.

Vladimir Putin traveled to China on Saturday night for a visit that is expected to last nearly a week—an unusually long duration for the Russian leader. During this trip, he will participate in the SCO summit, hold talks with Xi Jinping, and attend the Victory Day military parade in Beijing to mark the 80th anniversary of Japan's defeat in World War II, where Putin is set to be the main guest, alongside North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and the leaders of Iran and Cuba. The Kremlin chief was also scheduled to discuss the conflict in Ukraine with his Turkish counterpart and the Iranian nuclear issue with President Pezeshkian on Monday.

Russia has paid special attention to growing regional organizations in recent years, emphasizing all the advantages the SCO offers on the global stage, which requires the support of the world's second-largest economy. Putin also wants to sway India, ensuring that its trade disputes with the US do not reduce Delhi's interactions with Moscow. Before leaving Moscow, he stated that Russia and China have adopted a common position against discriminatory sanctions that hinder the socio-economic development of BRICS members and the world as a whole.

The main item on the agenda for the Xi-Putin meeting appears to be coordinating positions on the Ukraine war, amidst US efforts to end the conflict. Moscow wants to know if it can expect more help from China and how Beijing will react if the US asks it to pressure Russia to end the war. Putin wants to present his views and ensure the two sides are aligned, as the war has become a core pillar of their relationship.
It is well-known that China has become an economic artery for Russia during the Ukraine war, and Kyiv has been increasingly vocal about what it calls China's direct support for Moscow's war efforts.

Currently, bilateral trade has surged to over $240 billion, four times greater than pre-invasion levels in 2022. Beijing is now Russia’s largest buyer of oil and coal and will soon surpass Europe as Moscow’s primary market for natural gas. Specifically, the two sides are expected to discuss the long-proposed Power of Siberia-2 gas pipeline and plans to expand the existing oil pipeline to China. The talks will also likely address the deepening military cooperation between Beijing and Moscow, a development that has alarmed Western governments.

Crucially, China claims to be a neutral mediator in the Ukraine war, yet the relationship between the two countries has grown closer since the invasion began. While China denies providing direct military aid, U.S. officials say Beijing has supplied about 70% of the machinery and 90% of the semiconductors Russia needs to rebuild its war machine. In return, China is receiving assistance in sensitive defense technologies.

Putin's trip comes as Friedrich Merz, Germany's Chancellor, said on Saturday that he expects Russia to stop the war against Ukraine because it can no longer continue it for economic and military reasons. However, diplomatic efforts have failed in recent weeks. Speaking at a conservative regional event in the state of North Rhine-Westphalia, he added: "All efforts in recent weeks have been met with an even more aggressive approach by this regime in Moscow against the people of Ukraine... this war will not stop until we ensure together that Russia, at least for economic reasons, and perhaps also for military reasons, can no longer continue this war."

Simultaneously, General Valery Gerasimov, the Chief of the General Staff of Russia, said on Saturday that his forces are in a state of permanent offensive along almost the entire frontline and that they hold the strategic initiative. Meanwhile, Russia has intensified its air attacks on cities far beyond the frontline since this summer.
Significantly, U.S. President Donald Trump's attempts to reach a diplomatic agreement for the conflict, now in its fourth year, have so far failed. His European allies, including Germany, are calling for stronger economic sanctions against Moscow. Several EU foreign ministers on Saturday urged the United States to collaborate with Europe to pressure Putin into negotiations to end the Ukraine war before the deadline set by Donald Trump.

This SCO summit, the largest of its kind since the organization's founding, appears to be an important opportunity for engagement and consultation for the attending leaders, particularly the core five Presidents of Iran, China, Russia, India, and Turkey, each pursuing their own specific goals.
Naturally, Dr. Pezeshkian will use this opportunity to deepen friendly relations with these Presidents and other participating leaders. Consultations on vital issues, especially Iran's peaceful nuclear program, the activation of the 'snapback' mechanism, and illegal Western sanctions, alongside strengthening comprehensive relations with SCO member states, particularly Beijing, which has significant political and economic ties with Tehran, will play a crucial role.

Ali Beman Eghbali Zarch, Head of the Eurasia Studies Group

(The opinions expressed are those of the authors and do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of the IPIS)