Prior to the illegitimate attack by Israel and the US on Iran’s nuclear and military centers, Iran's diplomatic apparatus pursued an active and multilateral approach in the region. The goal of this policy was to keep key and influential regional countries, including Saudi Arabia, informed about the nuclear negotiations with the U.S. to gain and maintain their trust and cooperation. This approach was seemingly successful; unlike in the past, when the probability of these countries cooperating with any attack on Iran's nuclear facilities was high, this time we witnessed a unified condemnation of the Israeli attack
by the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC).
However, after the attack, the level of regional diplomatic efforts and consultations decreased. This reduction seems somewhat natural and could be due to the need to stabilize the situation and reassess regional calculations. Furthermore, Iran's military-security priorities shifted toward strengthening deterrence and increasing defense readiness following the attack. It also appears that the failure of mediation attempts by countries such as Oman, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Qatar to prevent the Israeli attack—and even the unintentional involvement of some of them in the aggression—has reduced the Iranian diplomatic establishment's confidence in these channels for a genuine resolution of the crisis.
Under these circumstances, it is natural for the focus to shift from active regional diplomacy toward deterrent policies. Despite this, it is essential that the approach and activities of regional countries, especially Saudi Arabia, remain under the close scrutiny of the diplomatic apparatus to exploit all available regional capacities for achieving foreign policy objectives and securing national interests.
The role and position of Saudi Arabia are of particular importance, and it is clear to international relations analysts that the country has recently shaped its foreign policy around de-escalation and active diplomacy on the global and regional stage. After ending the war in Yemen and moving past the Khashoggi murder crisis, the country attempted to repair its damaged image and, through this, boost its economic growth. To this end, Saudi officials have focused on economic and technological projects and fundamentally altered their foreign policy approaches, aiming to shift Saudi Arabia's role from an intervening and notorious military-security actor to a credible, peace-seeking regional balancer.
The key approaches adopted by the country in recent years to achieve this goal include:
1. De-escalation with Iran and Relationship Development
While the Iran-Saudi relationship had escalated to the brink of serious tension, with Saudi officials openly supporting unrest and insecurity in Iran, Saudi authorities assessed this policy as contrary to their economic growth goals and pivoted toward reducing tensions with Iran. This approach, which began with the Beijing Agreement in 2023, has been reinforced by positive diplomatic exchanges over the last two years. Saudi Arabia's objective is to reduce potential threats and create a stable environment for implementing its ambitious economic projects, particularly within the framework of Vision 2030.
2. Normalization of Relations with Israel
Although the process of normalizing relations with Israel faced challenges due to the Gaza war and Israel’s limitless crimes against Palestinian civilians, Riyadh still views it as a strategic goal. Despite its desire to receive security and economic concessions from the US and benefit from normalization with the Israeli regime, Riyadh is avoiding rushing the issue. To preserve its reputation domestically and among Islamic countries, Saudi Arabia is trying to join the Abraham Accords under conditions that demonstrate that proximity to Israel is not a betrayal but a tool to advance the Palestinian cause, thereby strengthening the Crown Prince's legitimacy. To this end, Saudi Arabia has set preconditions for normalization, such as the establishment of a Palestinian state, and is attempting to play a more active role in peace negotiations and secure the leadership of Islamic countries in this domain.
3. Mediation in Regional Crises
In recent years, Saudi Arabia has established itself as a key mediator in regional crises by adopting an active approach. A notable example is its hosting of talks between conflicting parties in Sudan in 2023. In the Gaza crisis, while attempting to mediate and secure a ceasefire, Riyadh openly emphasized its support for the formation of an independent Palestinian state. However, due to the complexity and scale of the crisis, Saudi Arabia’s role in this arena remained limited, and its main priority appears to have been maintaining balance in its relations with Israel and the United States. This active diplomacy has not been limited to the region, as Saudi Arabia has taken steps to play a role in major conflicts like the Iran nuclear talks and the Russia-Ukraine peace efforts to increase its global influence.
4. Economic Diplomacy
Deeply understanding the link between economic and political stability, Riyadh has placed economic diplomacy at the core of its strategy. This strategy is pursued, on the one hand, through massive investments in countries such as China, the US, the UK, Iraq, Syria, and Egypt, and on the other, by developing trade relations with African nations. Simultaneously, to realize its Vision 2030 goals, Saudi Arabia seeks to attract Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) from economic powers like China, India, and the United States to decouple its economy from oil dependency and become an economic hub with diverse revenue sources.
Furthermore, the country is striving to establish itself as a key player in global digital infrastructure architecture. Massive investments in submarine cables, data centers, and cloud computing collaborations with global technology giants attest to this. In addition, Saudi Arabia’s active participation in international discussions on Artificial Intelligence (AI) governance and cybersecurity clearly shows that, in the view of Saudi decision-makers, economic policy and strategic ambitions are completely intertwined.
5. Developing Relations with Global Powers
While maintaining its traditional ties with the United States, Saudi Arabia has simultaneously continued to strengthen relations with China and Russia. This multidimensional approach allows the country to use one power against others when necessary and gain greater strategic independence. Participation in organizations like BRICS is another example of this policy.
6. Internal Reforms
In the domestic political sphere, Saudi Arabia is seriously focused on its transformative social and economic projects. The success of mega-projects like the city of "NEOM" and the attraction of foreign investment are tied to internal stability. Therefore, Saudi authorities strive to project an image of a modern, stable, and reliable government to their international partners.
In a general summary, Saudi Arabia's approach in recent years clearly demonstrates a transition from a policy of confrontation to one of balance and cooperation. By deeply understanding the region's geopolitical complexities and the requirements of the global power structure, the country is attempting to secure its long-term security and interests by reconstructing its foreign policy and regional approach.
It seems necessary to leverage Saudi Arabia's change in posture for the benefit of Iran's national interests and security in the post-conflict period. The geographical location and economic structure of the Strait of Hormuz make Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries acutely vulnerable to any escalation of tensions between Israel and Iran. Any renewed military confrontation between Iran and the Israeli regime threatens not only the flow of energy but also the security of trade and investment in the region. Flight cancellations or reroutings, increased marine insurance rates in the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, and increased electronic disruptions affecting ship navigation systems across the Persian Gulf, among other issues, could turn the dream of economic growth and development for Saudi Arabia and other regional countries into an unreachable mirage.
Therefore, at this juncture, the interests of Iran and the Arab states of the Persian Gulf, especially Saudi Arabia, are aligned: security and stability in the Persian Gulf! To this end, regional consultations and dialogues must be resumed to build resilience and help establish a more sustainable regional order. Saudi Arabia and other emerging middle powers in the region should be called upon to convert their influence into peace and security initiatives and, alongside Iran, prevent another war from breaking out in the Persian Gulf.
Mohammad Mehdi Mazaheri, University Professor
(The opinions expressed are those of the authors and do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of the IPIS)