The rapid melting of Arctic ice is a phenomenon with widespread consequences extending far beyond the environment. Beneath this thawing ice curtain, not only are new waters and territories being revealed, but a new stage for geopolitical competition is unfolding.

A region once considered a distant and frozen frontier is now precisely at the center of attention and the scene of new rivalries. Official statistics also confirm the scale of this transformation; the U.S. National Snow and Ice Data Center reports that since 1979, the Arctic region has lost approximately 40% of its permanent ice cover, and the extent of its summer ice has decreased by more than 13% per decade.

This situation is not merely an environmental issue; it is a major geopolitical shift that has transformed the Arctic into a hub of increasing competition. From the untapped resources present in the region to the strategic shipping routes that are opening up as the ice melts, these changes bring with them new opportunities and tensions that have the potential to shape international relations for decades to come. 

The New Great Game in the North

John Mearsheimer, one of the most prominent theorists of international relations, views the melting of the ice from an offensive realist perspective, seeing it as creating a new region characterized by a power vacuum. This vacuum, he argues, leads to efforts and struggles by great powers within the anarchic international system to fill it.

Russia is at the forefront in this regard, drawing attention through its display of power in the Arctic. The country has reopened old Soviet bases, conducts massive military exercises, and will commission a fleet of 50 icebreaker ships by 2030. This signifies a polar navy designed for dominance in the North.

China, despite lacking an Arctic coastline, refers to itself as a "near-Arctic state" and has invested billions of dollars in a Polar Silk Road, establishing a network of ports and research stations to increase its influence.

The United States, although a later entrant to this competition, is rapidly catching up. In 2022, the Pentagon unveiled its new Arctic strategy and declared the region's rare mineral resources, essential for the production of electric vehicles and wind turbines, a national security priority. This is not a diplomatic display; it is a race for power in a region that Mearsheimer believes began the moment the ice started melting. 

Historical Background: The Traditional Strategic View of the Arctic during the Cold War

Since the Cold War, Alaska has held significant strategic importance for the United States, hosting key U.S. Air Force bases, including Eielson Air Force Base. The particular importance of this state stemmed from its proximity to Moscow via the polar route. During that era (the Cold War), we saw the deployment of radar networks like the DEW Line in this region to detect Soviet threats, and the concealment of nuclear submarines in Arctic waters was also a subject of military focus at that time.

Now, with climate change and the advent of a warmer Arctic era, the strategic importance of Alaska is expected to double. 

NATO Expansion to the North: Reshaping Security Arrangements in a Warmer Landscape

The security implications arising from the melting of Arctic ice are clearly visible, especially in the Northern European region. One of the most prominent manifestations of this development was the decision by Finland and Sweden to join NATO. These two countries, which had maintained military neutrality for decades, surprised the world with this move in 2023. While this decision was directly influenced by the Russia-Ukraine war, it was undoubtedly accelerated and intensified by the changing security situation in the Arctic.

For Finland, with its 1340 km shared border with Russia, this change in status is vital. With increased access to the Arctic, this border no longer acts as a safety shield but has become a potentially vulnerable point. Swedish leaders have also explicitly cited the changing security situation in the Arctic as a key factor in their decision to join NATO.

The result of these developments is the expansion of NATO's military presence from northern Norway to the Baltic Sea, creating a new barrier against potential Russian actions. Moscow's response to this situation has been a series of measures: increasing forces and equipment on the Kola Peninsula, intensifying rhetoric about NATO encirclement, and initiating a cycle of arms competition.

Ultimately, this new cycle of competition and tension in Northern Europe is rooted in climate developments and the geopolitical consequences of melting Arctic ice. 

Sea Routes: New Waterways, New Powers

The melting of ice in the Arctic is not limited to land; it is fundamentally changing the shape and use of the seas as well. Routes such as the Northern Sea Route along the Russian coast and the Northwest Passage through the Canadian Arctic Archipelago will play a transformative role in future maritime transport.

To understand this importance, consider that a ship traveling from Shanghai to Rotterdam using the Northern Sea Route can cover a distance 40% shorter than through the Suez Canal. This significant difference in distance means saving billions of dollars in fuel costs and time.

However, the opening of these new routes is not without geopolitical challenges. There are significant disputes over the sovereignty of these waterways: Russia claims that the Northern Sea Route is under its sovereignty and controls transit and its costs, while the United States considers it an international waterway. Similar tensions are observed between Canada and the U.S. over the legal status of the Northwest Passage.

While climate models predict that ice-free summers in the Arctic will become common within the next few decades, these disputes have the potential to escalate rapidly. This escalation could include direct military confrontations, a situation similar to what is currently being witnessed in the South China Sea.

 The Rush for Arctic Riches

Estimates by the U.S. Geological Survey suggest that the Arctic may hold up to 30% of the world's undiscovered natural gas reserves and 13% of its undiscovered oil reserves. Furthermore, the region contains significant reserves of metals such as zinc, nickel, and rare earth elements.

This situation presents a contradictory duality: on the one hand, climate change facilitates access to and extraction of fossil fuels; on the other hand, it increases global pressure to reduce carbon emissions and transition to clean energy.

Nevertheless, the enormous economic opportunities that these resources provide often lead to environmental considerations being marginalized in governments' strategic calculations. 

Greenland: A Strategic Territory in a Warmer World

Amidst the polar transformations, Greenland has rapidly become a key player. An example of this growing attention was Donald Trump's 2019 proposal to purchase the island from Denmark—an idea that might have seemed unusual at first glance. However, his stance (and likely a more serious approach in a future presidency) is rooted in America's strategic view of Greenland.

This is because Greenland's ice is melting, revealing vast reserves of rare earth minerals—materials essential for advanced technologies and renewable energy. China, recognizing this opportunity, is actively investing in mines and infrastructure in the region.

But the developments are not limited to the competition between great powers. The indigenous people of Greenland have also not been idle; they are seeking independence from Denmark to take control of the management and exploitation of their natural resources themselves.

With the increasing retreat of the ice, this vast island (larger than Mexico) has the potential to become a focal and decisive point in the geopolitical arrangement of the Arctic. 

A New Challenge for International Law

Given the recent developments and the increasing strategic importance and environmental sensitivity of the Arctic, the need for a comprehensive international legal framework to govern this region is more keenly felt than ever.

Currently, although the national laws of the Arctic coastal states and some international treaties (such as the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea - UNCLOS) govern to some extent, these existing frameworks are insufficient to effectively address the unique challenges of the region. These challenges include the opening of new shipping routes, extensive resource extraction, and complex environmental issues.

A clear and effective legal system can play a vital role in preventing territorial disputes, environmental degradation, and the disregard for the rights of indigenous peoples. Such a system can also provide clear regulations for the sustainable management of resources, nature conservation, and navigation rights in the region.

Without the establishment of such a comprehensive framework, the risk of this pristine and vital region becoming a focal point of international conflicts is significantly increased.

 Conclusion: The Future of Governance in the Arctic

The Arctic is changing, and this transformation has become the beginning of a new race for power in the region.

The future of this sensitive area depends on a critical crossroads:

Will the involved countries be able to manage tensions by reaching effective agreements? Or will the increasing melting of the ice, as feared, unleash a flood of conflicts on the stage of the international system?

Elāheh Sādāt Musavinezhād, Expert at the Center for Political and International Studies

   (The opinions expressed are those of the authors and do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of the IPIS)