The Balkans has long been a region characterized by rivalries, political tensions, and unresolved historical disputes. Nationalistic narratives, ethnic and religious intolerance, and territorial claims are key factors that often shape relations among neighboring countries in this region.

Given that stirring intolerance and division among many people requires only a few loud voices, fostering and maintaining good relations in practice is a far more challenging process. This constant state of tension and distrust has led to deep-seated suspicion towards others and the accumulation of stigmas and stereotypes, often fueled by political rhetoric.

Against this backdrop, building trust and cooperation in the Balkans is a slow and difficult process. Even after achieving a level of stability, this trust and cooperation remain fragile and can easily be undermined and neutralized by new political tensions or external provocations.

Serbia is one of the key countries in the Western Balkans and plays a central role in the region. Following the wars of the 1990s, the country has embarked on a path of relative growth and development and a process of convergence with the European Union. Serbia's unique geopolitical position has made it a focal point of the region.

Although Serbia became a landlocked country with the separation of Montenegro, losing its access to the sea, it has maintained its important and central position and is considered the heart of the Balkans politically, economically, and culturally.

From the perspective of the West, Serbia and the Serb-inhabited areas of the Balkans are traditionally considered within Russia's sphere of influence and among its satellites in Southeast Europe. This is despite Serbia's efforts, for numerous political, economic, and historical reasons (such as its membership in the Non-Aligned Movement), to improve its relations with the Western world as a neutral country applying for EU membership and having chosen the European path.

Nevertheless, due to the Balkan Wars, the people of this country still harbor deep anti-American sentiments, and Serbia is the only country in the region whose population is largely considered anti-NATO. This very issue has shaped Serbia's defense approach, leading it to avoid NATO membership and strongly reject the Atlantic component in the process of Euro-Atlantic integration.

Following the collapse of the roof of a railway station and the resulting casualties, the country (Serbia) has experienced widespread unrest in recent months. This situation led to the government's resignation.

Amidst this unrest and widespread student protests, Serbian authorities have promoted the narrative of a "color revolution" as an attempt to overthrow the government. Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić has repeatedly claimed that these anti-government protests are being organized by foreign elements. These claims have even been raised in meetings between Serbian government ministers and Russian officials. According to Vučić, international organizations like USAID have funded efforts to destabilize Serbia.

Serbia's President has confidently declared the failure of these movements, expressing his positions clearly:

• On February 15, 2025, during a speech to his supporters in Sremska Mitrovica, he stated: "And now I tell you - their color revolution has failed."
• He also declared in early March 2025, in the city of Kikinda, that he intends to write a textbook titled "How I Defeated a Color Revolution in Serbia."

According to him, his experience in confronting these protests can serve as a model for other countries facing similar movements.

Narratives related to color revolutions were also raised during the anti-violence protests following the demonstrations in May 2023, as well as during the crisis after the early parliamentary and local elections in December 2023, which were accompanied by numerous irregularities. Similar narratives of foreign interference have also been widely used by Serbian authorities in recent years whenever anti-government protests have increasingly occurred. The ruling party accused foreign elements of organizing the 2021 protests against the Rio Tinto lithium extraction project, and again in 2024, when the lithium issue resurfaced, another round of widespread protests took place. However, recently, claims have emerged suggesting that Serbian authorities are playing both sides, attempting to present the protests as a color revolution when speaking to domestic audiences and Russian officials, while claiming in contact with Western politicians that the current crisis is the result of Russian interference. The important point is that Vučić has always referred to specific facts of gross interference by foreign countries in Serbia's internal political processes and says: "We condemn such actions and insist that the principles of non-interference in internal affairs be strictly observed by everyone, first and foremost by our Western partners, who have long been trying to exploit the public finance situation in non-governmental countries/entities."

This point was also raised by Filip Ejdus, a professor at the Faculty of Political Sciences in Belgrade, who recently posted on the social network X stating that he had learned from diplomatic sources that the authorities present the outcome of the protests in negotiations with Westerners as Russian interference and in consultations with Easterners as a color revolution. Shortly thereafter, former Serbian President Boris Tadić also wrote on X that at the recent Munich Security Conference, parties told him that representatives of the Serbian delegation were disseminating information among Western politicians claiming that Russian secret services and sources were behind the student protests in Serbia. He condemned these claims as a new level of attack on students, as well as a contradiction with the propaganda being disseminated in Serbia. However, Sergey Lavrov, alongside his Serbian counterpart Marko Đurić, said that the West is trying to destabilize Serbia. At a joint press conference with Serbian Foreign Minister Marko Đurić on February 17, 2025, he emphasized that the Russian leadership supports the efforts of the Serbian leadership and President Vučić to prevent the destabilization of the situation in that country. Similarly, Marko Đurić in the same vein referred to the numerous foreign and domestic pressures that Serbia has endured and thanked Lavrov for his support in preserving stability in his country, which pursues a very important independent policy. Just one day after the conversation between Lavrov and Đurić, Aleksandar Vulin, Deputy Prime Minister, and Sergey Shoigu, Secretary of the Security Council of Russia, met in Moscow to discuss strengthening friendly relations between their countries.

Independent Serbian analysts believe that the nature of the protests is such that they are not being directed by any actor, not even a domestic one. Here, a strong and widespread process is fundamentally being pursued, which is called a popular movement that is very decentralized and at the same time without any grand planning, and it is, in fact, shaking the foundations of social stability and tranquility. Therefore, it cannot be considered an effort in favor of a specific political group. Overall, it must be acknowledged that given the unrest in Serbia, the political developments in Republika Srpska (Bosnia and Herzegovina), and the nature of relations between Serbia and Kosovo, the geography of former Yugoslavia is far from achieving full stability and pursuing a strong process of growth and development, as this region has always been and will continue to be a scene of overt and covert great power competition.

Ali Beman Eqbali Zarch, Head of the Eurasian Studies Group

 (The opinions expressed are those of the authors and do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of the IPIS)