More than one hundred days into Donald Trump's second term, it is now possible to outline the principles of this administration's foreign policy to some extent. This period has witnessed several developments, including the Gaza crisis, the tariff war, the Ukraine-Russia conflict, the Iranian nuclear issue, the matter of migrant deportations, and tensions in relations with China. These events can reveal new dimensions of his and his administration's views and approaches in foreign policy and diplomacy. Trump's inclination to exert control over Greenland, the Panama Canal, and Canada, alongside his emphasis on pacifism and his determination to end regional conflicts and military engagements, appear unusual from the perspective of international relations and diplomacy. Furthermore, the involvement of Elon Musk, a close ally of the President, in Trump's domestic and international programs is a novel phenomenon in American governance and at the international level. In the following, we will attempt to examine some of the most important considerations regarding what is expected of American diplomacy during Trump's presidency.
Firstly, by examining the set of actions and positions that Trump has adopted, the following propositions can be stated:
- The main premise in the policies of the Trump administration suggests a kind of decline in the global standing of the United States. The majority of policies that have been core components of this country's foreign policy for decades and centuries, including human rights, development aid, institutionalism, Atlantic security, and, in general, everything related to the country's role in global governance, are interpreted within the Trump administration's cognitive framework as an opportunity for exploitation of America by so-called allies and partners, which over many years has been a burden on the American economy and its taxpayers. Whether this premise stems from a social and psychological phenomenon or construct of Americans or has been reproduced by Trump and his intellectual team for political purposes requires further examination.
- He has also criticized America's "interventionism," which in his view led to two "endless" wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. Since Trump has opposed the traditional United States policy of maintaining the liberal international order, he is often labeled an isolationist. However, in reality, his foreign policy statements and actions reveal a different set of fundamental assumptions.
- Trump often refers to having a realist political view, but at the same time, he combines it with the ever-present elements of the United States' expansionist policy. He is also attempting to apply business methods to international relations. While Musk's international activity may stem from different motivations and goals, it is somewhat aligned with Trump's approach.
Now, we have the opportunity to examine and verify the set of Trump's realist views.
Political Realism[1] and American Power
As mentioned earlier, Donald Trump's approach to foreign policy is based on the belief that the global standing of the United States has declined for several reasons. He considers factors such as the policies of previous US administrations, the exploitation by partners and allies, ineffective economic approaches, and the outdated, worn-out, inefficient, and costly structure of the government and its bureaucracy as among these reasons. According to Trump, presidents of recent decades have paved the way for the exploitation of America by allies, partners, and even adversaries. From an economic perspective, he believes that in the context of globalization, many manufacturing industries have been transferred from the United States to other countries, which has negatively impacted the American labor market and workers. In the security realm, Trump has repeatedly criticized allies who, for years, have benefited from the US security umbrella with little investment in their own defense, thereby allocating more resources to the development of their welfare states. He has also criticized America's policy of "interventionism," considering it the cause of two "endless" wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. Since Trump opposes the traditional US policy of maintaining the liberal international order, he is often labeled an isolationist. However, in reality, his statements and actions in foreign policy indicate a different set of fundamental assumptions.
Like many critics of the current US global engagement, the President invokes the concept of realism in foreign policy. Proponents of this approach believe that America should prioritize its own interests and security above all else. They challenge the idea of an international order based on values and institutions, arguing that the world's major powers will inevitably seek to establish their own spheres of influence. (It is from this perspective that his recent policies towards Russia, according to Trump, enhance America's standing and power in the division of spheres of influence as a superpower). Trump's endorsement and attention to the validity of Russia's opposition to Ukraine joining NATO can be interpreted as a reflection of this approach.
The negation of interventionism is another key element of Trump's foreign policy thinking. Alongside this, the emphasis on being peace-oriented and avoiding war and military power is another aspect of Trump's rejection of interventionism. He positions himself as a president who, unlike his predecessors, ends wars rather than starts them. In confronting rivals, opportunistic partners, and adversaries, he prefers economic measures such as tariffs, sanctions, and technological wars, exemplified by his policy towards China. However, this does not signify a reduction in the role of the American armed forces. On the contrary, between 2017 and 2021, Trump repeatedly invoked the concept of peace through strength, which assumes that military power is the best guarantee of peace because it deters hostile countries from acting against the United States.
Another characteristic of Trump is his view in recalling the past and his desire to geographically enlarge America again. In the realm of foreign policy, he constantly harbors the desire to revive the expansionist approach that the United States pursued at the beginning of the 19th and 20th centuries.[2] This policy involves acquiring territory from other governments as a means of expanding US land ownership. Trump's emphasis on this policy could potentially reverse the psychological current of the decline of America's global standing in the public opinion of the country.
The Extension of a Business-Oriented Culture in Diplomacy and Distrust of Institutions
Trump's long and successful business background has consistently been considered a factor in evaluating his persona as president and can serve as an indicator for redefining all his policies and decisions. This can be clearly observed in his transactional approach to relations with other countries. From Trump's perspective, the United States should secure more favorable trade agreements than in the past. He also believes that military aid to partners and allies should not be unconditional or a fixed matter. His business-oriented mindset similarly shapes his negotiation style, wherein an initial extreme offer, typically presented as the ultimate goal, serves as a starting point for commencing negotiations. This approach could explain his inclination to purchase Greenland, control the Panama Canal, or threaten to impose tariffs on specific countries.
Trump's first term demonstrated his distrust of international institutions, multilateral agreements, and global organizations, as well as his preference for bilateral relationships. This aligns with his intrinsic belief in his own effectiveness in dealing with other world leaders. Between 2017 and 2021, this approach led to his two meetings with Kim Jong Un, the leader of North Korea, and currently alludes to a potential bilateral meeting with Vladimir Putin or a trip to China.
Reports from Trump's former aides suggest that he possesses limited knowledge of international relations. He had never held a position related to diplomacy before assuming the presidency in 2017. Assessing his true intentions in foreign policy is further complicated by his distinctive communication style – his statements are often exaggerated and deliberately provocative. Furthermore, Trump believes that unpredictability[3] is to his advantage, as it makes it more difficult for adversaries to discern his objectives.
Elon Musk's Role in Trump's Foreign Policy
The true extent of Musk's influence on United States policy remains one of the biggest ambiguities surrounding the American government. According to Trump's decision, Musk, along with Vivek Ramaswamy, a politician and businessman, will head the Department of Government Efficiency. This entity does not currently exist, and it is unclear whether it will be established within the government. Musk has previously influenced appointments in the new administration, as well as Trump's policy decisions, including his opposition to the compromise budget stopgap negotiated in the House of Representatives. Furthermore, he has the ability to shape US public opinion through the X platform, where he is both the owner and the most prominent user. Therefore, it seems that he may also influence US foreign policy by directly advising the President. In the future, Musk may also become more involved in diplomatic affairs.
In the meantime, Elon Musk's involvement in Europe is likely an attempt to replicate the success he has achieved in the United States through financial and media support for aligned political groups. If the radical groups he supports are successful, his influence on political developments in various European countries and within the European Union will increase. This could also enable him to play a role in shaping national and EU regulations that affect his businesses.
In conclusion, there are several points to mention regarding American foreign policy under Trump in the first 100 days of his term. For example, the transformation Trump has brought about in the transatlantic alliance or his policy regarding the efficiency of the government structure and the dismissal of employees could have more profound effects on foreign policy (in terms of reducing personnel or embassies). The closure of a significant portion of USAID, etc. These are all topics worthy of more detailed examination. The intentions behind Trump's business-oriented policies and decisions in reducing the costs of global politicking for the country will become clear when it is determined in which sectors the financial resources resulting from these reforms are to be spent.
Mohammad Javad Shariati, Senior Expert at the Center for Political and International Studies.
(The opinions expressed are those of the authors and do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of the IPIS)
[1] Reference to realism was previously present in the National Security Strategy document signed by Trump in 2017, and this proposed change in United States foreign policy was encapsulated in the slogan "America First." The individuals who form Trump's intellectual backbone also originate from this same realism.
[2] The United States pursued such a policy in the past; in its history, America's expansionist policy led to the purchase of Louisiana from France (1803), Alaska from Russia (1867), and part of present-day Arizona and New Mexico from Mexico (1854). The ideological foundation for the United States' westward expansion was the doctrine of Manifest Destiny, which was formulated in the mid-19th century and defined territorial growth as the United States's obvious destiny.
[3]A similar strategy was previously employed by Richard Nixon, which was known as the Madman theory.