In the arena of global geopolitics, alongside traditional strategic rivalries, a more subtle yet increasingly vital competition is taking shape. Largely out of sight, countries are engaged in a strategic game to gain access to resources that may not have widely familiar names but have become fundamental components of modern military, economic, and technological power: rare earth elements.

The Strategic Importance of Rare Earth Elements

Rare earth elements (REEs) comprise 17 metallic elements that, contrary to their name, are relatively abundant in the Earth's crust. What makes these elements "rare" is their widespread dispersion in nature and the complex, costly, and often environmentally damaging processes required for their extraction and refining. Nevertheless, these elements have become an undeniable necessity for the development of today's advanced economies.

In the words of Dr. Eugene Gholz, a political science scholar at the University of Notre Dame, "Whoever controls the rare earth elements supply chain will control the future of advanced technologies." This statement clearly illustrates the importance of these materials in the realm of global politics. Dr. Gholz believes that these elements play the same role in the 21st century that oil played in the 20th century.

The strategic importance of rare earth elements stems from their unique properties, such as magnetic characteristics, luminescence, and electrochemical capabilities, which make them key components in advanced technologies like precision-guided weapons and renewable energy systems. Global demand for these elements, which was around 62,500 tons in 2006, increased to 125,000 tons in 2021 and is projected to reach 315,000 tons by 2030. The majority of this demand growth is due to the ever-increasing production of electric vehicles and wind turbines, in whose construction rare earth elements are used.

Key Rare Earth Elements in Technological Competition

Three rare earth elements, in particular, play a decisive role in global technological competition:

• Neodymium has revolutionized permanent magnet technology. These incredibly strong magnets are essential in wind turbines, electric vehicle motors, hard drives, and many military applications, including smart weapon guidance systems and cruise missiles. A single F-35 fighter jet alone requires about 920 pounds of rare earth elements, with neodymium playing a crucial role.
• Dysprosium, often added to neodymium magnets, helps maintain their magnetic properties at high temperatures. This feature makes dysprosium very important for electric vehicle motors and precision weapon systems. Forecasts indicate that by 2030, global demand may exceed available supply, making this shortage the supply chain of advanced technologies vulnerable.
• Lanthanum, although less frequently highlighted, plays a key role in the production of catalytic converters, oil refining, hybrid vehicle batteries, and specialized optical applications. This element's ability to absorb and emit specific wavelengths makes it valuable for various technologies.

Dr. Victoria Sampson from the Strategic Materials Advisory Council emphasizes: "These elements are not just industrial materials; they are strategic resources that will determine military readiness, energy transition capabilities, and technological sovereignty."

Global Distribution and China's Dominance

The geopolitical importance of rare earth elements has been amplified by the high concentration of their production in China. China controls approximately 70 percent of global production and 85-90 percent of the processing capacity of these elements. This dominance was not achieved by chance.

China recognized the strategic value of these elements decades ago. This is reflected in the statement by Sophia Turner, an analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, outlining China's strategy in dominating this field. In 2010, during a territorial dispute with Japan over the Senkaku Islands, China restricted exports of rare earth elements, causing prices to surge by up to 500 percent. This action demonstrated that these resources could be used as a tool for exerting geopolitical influence. In response, Japan developed alternative supply chains and recycling technologies, and by 2022, it was able to recover approximately 1,200 tons of rare earth elements annually from electronic waste.

Great Power Competition over Rare Earth Resources

Access to rare earth elements and the ability to process them have become a major front in the strategic competition between the United States and China. China's "Made in China 2025" program specifically focuses on dominating industries that are dependent on rare earth elements.

In contrast, the United States has strived to rebuild its domestic capabilities. In 2021, the Biden administration ordered a comprehensive supply chain review and identified dependence on rare earth elements as a critical vulnerability. Investments include $35 million for the development of a processing facility in Mountain Pass, California – the first American facility capable of converting rare earth oxides into metals.

The European Union has also made the security of rare earth elements a strategic priority by launching the European Raw Materials Alliance in 2020. The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) – comprising the US, Japan, Australia, and India – is also increasingly engaging in the rare earth elements sector to counter China's dominance.

Donald Trump's View on Rare Earth Elements: Confrontation with China and the Strategy of Industrial Independence

Donald Trump, both during his first presidential term (2017-2021) and in his recent pronouncements after returning to the White House in January 2025, has adopted a decisive and nationalistic approach to the issue of rare earth elements. His policies in this area are fully aligned with his overall "America First" strategy and Washington's national security considerations.

Trump has described rare earth elements as vital materials for American power and has deemed China's dominance in this market a threat to national security and a strategic defeat for the United States. During his 2024 election campaign, he warned: "How did we let China take total control of these critical resources? They have every rare earth element needed for our missiles, jets, and advanced technologies in their grip. This situation is unacceptable, and I will fix it."

Policies of the Trump Administration in the Field of Rare Earth Elements

During his first presidency, Trump declared the issue of rare earth elements a national emergency in 2019 by issuing Executive Order 13817 and directed the Department of Defense to take action to expand domestic production of these elements. Among his key actions in this area was supporting investment in MP Materials, the only active rare earth element mine in the United States.

To counter America's dependence on China in this sector, Trump has pursued several key strategies:

1. Economic Nationalism: Ending Dependence on China: During his presidency, Trump pursued measures such as sanctions, trade tariffs, and multilateral agreements to reduce China's influence in the rare earth element market. In 2020, he sought to form an alliance with countries like Australia, Canada, and Vietnam to create alternative supply chains. In his new term, Trump aims to reduce America's involvement in other parts of the world and focus on containing China, such as by changing policy towards Russia and Ukraine. Therefore, the US is preparing for a trade war over rare earths with China. In a February 2025 speech, Trump announced his goal of complete independence from China in the supply of rare earth elements by the end of his second presidential term. In this regard, he unveiled a $15 billion national rare earth element program focused on developing domestic mines, expanding processing infrastructure, and strengthening domestic and international supply chains.
2. Reducing Environmental Restrictions: Facilitating Domestic Production: One of the major challenges in the extraction and processing of rare earth elements is the stringent environmental regulations in the United States. Trump considers these restrictions an unnecessary obstacle to American industrial independence, stating during a 2024 election rally: "We can't close down our industry for the sake of a plant or animal while China pollutes the land every day."
3. Influence in Resource-Rich Regions: From Afghanistan to Ukraine: In his first term, the Trump administration looked to global strategic resources to meet America's rare earth element needs. These efforts included examining the reserves of Afghanistan and paying particular attention to the mineral resources of Ukraine, indicating a broader White House policy in this area.

Critics argue that Trump's approach is overly simplistic and does not adequately address the environmental challenges, high costs of domestic development, and complexities of the global supply chain. In particular, the extraction and processing of rare earth elements is an expensive, polluting, and time-consuming process, making it difficult to reduce dependence on China in the short term.

The Future of Rare Resource Competition

The outlook for rare earth elements is rapidly evolving. New discoveries, processing technologies, and international agreements may alter the current landscape. However, the fundamental reality remains: rare earth elements have transformed from obscure materials in the periodic table to vital resources in the international order. Their distribution, processing, and application will influence military capabilities, energy transition, and technological advancement in the coming decades. The competition for these resources could lead to either conflict or cooperation. What is certain is that rare earth elements have now firmly established their place in the vocabulary of international relations.

Elaheh Sadat Mousavi Nejad, Expert at the Center for Political and International Studies.

(The opinions expressed are those of the authors and do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of the IPIS)