On Monday, February 17, 2025, the day after the Munich Security Conference, an emergency closed-door meeting was held in Paris focusing on the issue of Ukraine. The aim of this meeting was for European leaders to exchange views on how to react to potential changes in the United States' policy towards Ukraine, which were anticipated with the return of President Donald Trump. French President Emmanuel Macron invited the heads of government of Germany, Britain, Italy, Poland, Spain, the Netherlands, and Denmark, along with the President of the European Council, the President of the European Commission, and the Secretary-General of NATO to attend this session. This meeting took place the day before scheduled direct negotiations between Trump and Putin in Riyadh regarding Ukraine. European leaders were concerned that Donald Trump, in his negotiations with Russia over a peace agreement, might reach outcomes that would not serve Kyiv's interests and might even be adopted without consulting or obtaining the agreement of the heads of the European Union.

In fact, it is very difficult for Europeans to digest the reality that they were not invited by the US to negotiate with Russia about the future of Ukraine. There is a European proverb that says: "If you are not at the dinner table, you are probably on the menu!" This saying especially applies to Trump's remarks about Ukraine, and European countries believe they are being removed from the game in the most humiliating way possible.

What Transpired at the European Leaders' Closed-Door Meeting in Paris on Monday?

• European leaders considered the Americans' return to the issue of security guarantees – provided they are genuine – an encouraging element. If such guarantees (deployment of NATO member countries' forces on Ukraine's borders) are part of a "deal," Ukraine will have a chance to preserve its sovereignty and strengthen its anchor in the West.
• The deployment of peacekeeping forces to secure the kilometers of shared border between Ukraine and Russia, as well as between Ukraine and Belarus, was at the heart of the discussions. However, Europeans do not agree on this matter. France is in favor, and Emmanuel Macron spoke of providing "strong and credible security guarantees for Ukrainians." Britain and Germany are also ready to send soldiers to Ukraine. However, the Spanish Foreign Minister, after the meeting, said in an interview that Poland, with the third-largest army in NATO, had already announced that it was not willing to send soldiers to Ukraine. According to experts, there is a need to deploy 50,000 to 100,000 military personnel, as well as material support from NATO and the US to Ukraine. This is while Zelensky has requested the deployment of 200,000 European troops.
• Macron emphasized: "We desire a strong and lasting peace in Ukraine. To this end, Russia must cease its aggressions. Therefore, peace must be accompanied by strong and credible security guarantees for Ukrainians. Otherwise, there is a risk of the ceasefire ending like the Minsk agreements" (referring to the ceasefire agreements in 2014 and 2015).
• The Spanish Prime Minister stated on Monday after the emergency meeting that Europe should define its security and defense in the form of public interests and called for the implementation of "joint mechanisms" to finance it, announcing that Spain would allocate 2 percent of its GDP to this. Germany also announced its readiness to allocate 2 percent of its GDP to this, provided that this cost is not considered in the European Union's budget deficit calculations. The President of the European Commission said last week at the Munich Conference that she supports "protective clauses" to exempt national defense spending from the European Union's budget deficit ceiling rules; however, to do this, she needs the support of national governments.
• The French Foreign Minister, Jean-Noël Barrot, stated in this regard: "It is the Ukrainians who decide whether or not to stop the war. Until that decision is made, Europe will support them." He added: "The Ukrainians will never stop the war until they are sure that the peace offered to them will be lasting." From Mr. Barrot's point of view, Europe must guarantee peace, and the United States' role is to bring Putin to the negotiating table.

Thus, Europe is predicted to decide on one of the following four options:

1. Agreement with Russia to achieve peace. Europe believes that the Russians are making a mistake if they miss the opportunity to exit the conflict. In their view, Russia has been weakened, and the Russian economy may face a crisis in the next year or two. Putin insists on accepting a settlement if the "root causes of the conflict" are addressed. From Moscow's perspective, the root cause of the conflict is the Ukrainians' refusal to return to Russia's sphere of influence.
2. Increasing defense budgets and sharing costs with the US.
3. No ceasefire with Russia without a peace agreement, as the Minsk experience might be repeated. Europeans believe Russia has based its economy on a war economy. In the event of a ceasefire in Ukraine, Putin sees this agreement as a moment to rest and to better prepare for a new aggression in the future.
4. Security guarantees supported by the US to be given to Ukraine.

Scenarios that Europe Envisions for the Future:

1. Following the Riyadh meeting, the Trump-Putin meeting will continue, which will not be in Ukraine's favor.
2. Putin, understanding Trump's psychology, will prolong the negotiations, and if he does not achieve his goals, the negotiations will end without result.
3. An economic and social collapse in Ukraine is likely to occur.
4. The optimistic scenario is that Trump will help Ukraine end the war.

After the tense meeting between Trump and Zelensky at the White House, scenario four was practically eliminated. In that meeting, Zelensky was accused of "ingratitude" and a lack of appreciation for US military aid to Ukraine in front of television cameras, and the situation turned in Europe's favor.

After the tense meeting between Trump and Zelensky, Europe no longer feels marginalized. This is why Zelensky went directly from the US to London, where he was welcomed and supported among European leaders.

Key Points:

• Zelensky thanked Europe for its continued support of Ukraine.
• Europe's concern about being excluded from mediating the crisis in Ukraine has subsided. If Emmanuel Macron had only waited four more days, there would have been no need to travel to Washington and seek Trump's approval.
• The belief of the Islamic Republic of Iran regarding distrust of the United States has been strengthened. Trump did not only prove his distrust by withdrawing from the JCPOA regarding Iran; he also acted unilaterally regarding the Ukraine crisis, further confirming his unreliability.
• However, Europe is well aware that it cannot continue the war in Ukraine without US support. This is because the US has the largest number of soldiers in NATO (132,000 soldiers), and the US provides 22 percent of NATO's budget, which is set at $4.6 billion for 2025.
• Europe, which was worried about being sidelined, is now trying to calm the situation by mediating between Trump and Zelensky.
• It is said that Europe might continue the war in Ukraine to weaken the Russian economy so that Russia will be the one to take the initiative for peace.

Masoumeh Seif Afjei Senior Expert at the Center for Political and International Studies

  (The opinions expressed are those of the authors and do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of the IPIS)