In line with Warsaw's declared strategy, the Ukraine crisis currently represents the most serious threat to Poland's security, and it is no surprise that the country's political leaders openly identify Russia as the main threat to their security. Warsaw was among the first European capitals to officially condemn Russia's military aggression against Ukraine in 2014, and this has become even more important as it has become the most important supporter and Western hub in providing aid to Kyiv.
Poland's National Security Strategy document provides a clear vision of how the country uses its resources to ensure the defense, security, and well-being of its citizens and the government as a whole. This document outlines a roadmap on how Poland integrates into international organizations as a member of NATO and the European Union, or develops bilateral relations with other countries and regional and global cooperation. In other words, this document specifies how Poland uses its resources to maintain the security and well-being of its citizens and how it cooperates with other countries and organizations in the international arena.
With Trump's return to the White House, the formation of the new European Commission, and the continuation of the war in Ukraine, security in all its dimensions will be Poland's priority as it assumes the presidency of the Council of the European Union on January 1, 2025. Agnieszka Bartol, Poland's ambassador to the EU, says: "Energy, defense and economic security will be at the top of the EU's agenda during the Council's next six-month rotating presidency," which seems to be an ambitious agenda to create stability in a period of major changes and challenges (with Donald Trump being elected for a second time as President of the United States, the formation of the new European Commission and the war in Ukraine). The reality is that today the most important concern for Europeans is security in all possible dimensions, both external and internal, and in the next stage there are issues such as competition, food quality, essential medicines and affordable energy prices and immigration. Also, strengthening the defense industry for the European Union is an important priority, and Brussels needs to earmark an additional 500 billion euros for defense in the next decade to avoid falling behind competitors such as the United States and China. Although European defense spending reached a record 279 billion euros in 2023, estimates show that after years of underinvestment, more money is needed to cover financial gaps and invest in new projects such as the European Air Defense Shield.
On one hand, in 2020, Poland began a 15-year process to create national defense and deterrence capabilities. This is, in fact, a pragmatic process in a time horizon in which Warsaw estimates that hostile states will continue to promote aggressive and revisionist policies, and rapidly equip forces with new offensive weapons. In any case, the dangers arising from continuous internal and regional conflicts in the neighborhood of southern Europe and the pressure of illegal immigration remain a challenge to European security. Also at the global level, an important phenomenon is the increasing strategic competition between the United States of America, China and Russia, which affects the entire system of international relations. On the other hand, this country, through the development of a strategic partnership with the United States and other allied countries, has taken action to strengthen the external pillars of its security, and pursues cooperation with Washington in the areas of security and defense, including ensuring the permanent presence of American forces on Polish soil, as well as in the fields of energy, trade, investment and research and development. At the same time, increasing the defense budget allocation so that it should reach the level of 2.5% of GDP in 2025 is a priority.
Moreover, Donald Trump's victory has encouraged sovereign populist currents in this Green Continent, placing the European political establishment in an uncertain position. The European Union can benefit from maintaining extensive trade relations with China, including by refusing to remove some strategic areas requested by the Americans, but this is a very risky approach for a Union that is experiencing a sharp economic decline. More importantly, insufficient GDP, the decline in the technology of EU companies is almost entirely visible in the global landscape in advanced fields such as artificial intelligence, quantum computing, space, and the reduction of its diplomatic influence, and this Union is even behind countries like India, and despite some of its strategic autonomy ambitions, especially expressed by Macron, the European Union is not taken seriously at the global level, and with the arrival of Donald Trump, this phenomenon will be intensified.
Relations with the Middle East, and especially the Islamic Republic of Iran, are an important issue for Poland with the aim of securing its energy and security through the development of infrastructure and the use of EU projects, as well as through the elimination of Russia's monopoly on the supply of gas and oil in Central Europe and the Balkans. At the same time, one of Warsaw's priorities is the export of technical and engineering goods and services to the countries of this region. Of course, it must be admitted that this country, for various reasons, has had good and active relations with the countries of the Middle East, especially dear Iran, in various historical periods, in the relations between Tehran and Warsaw, the hosting of our country's people from Polish refugees of World War II more than 8 decades ago has always been prominent, and undoubtedly, using the capacity of this country in the new round of negotiations between Iran and the European Union can help to make the efforts fruitful.
Ali Beman Eghbali Zarch
(The opinions expressed are those of the authors and do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of the IPIS)