Introduction

The Qatar-Syria-Turkey gas pipeline project, which was rejected by Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in 2009, has once again come into focus following the political developments in the country. This project, aimed at transporting natural gas from Qatar to Turkey and then to Europe, is of great importance in strengthening energy relations between the Persian Gulf and Europe, as well as diversifying energy sources for European countries.

In 2009, the Emir of Qatar, Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani, proposed the construction of a gas pipeline from the Persian Gulf to Turkey and announced that his country was interested in implementing the project. This pipeline, with an approximate length of 1,500 kilometers and an estimated cost of 10 billion dollars, was intended to transport natural gas from the joint gas field of Iran and Qatar (South Pars in Iran and North Dome in Qatar) through Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Syria, and Turkey to Europe.

However, Bashar al-Assad refused to sign the proposed agreement with Qatar. The main reason for this decision was to protect the interests of his ally, Russia, which at that time was one of the main suppliers of natural gas to Europe. By this decision, Assad tried to reduce Europe's dependence on Russian gas.

Now, with the changing political conditions in Syria and the reduction of European countries' dependence on Russian gas, the implementation of this project is back on the agenda. Analyzing the geopolitical dimensions and potential consequences of this project can help to understand future developments in regional and global energy equations.

Feasibility of Project Resumption After the Fall of Bashar al-Assad

Turkey, as one of the main actors in this project, has expressed its desire for joint cooperation in the field of energy with Syria after the recent developments in the country. In response to reporters' questions after the cabinet meeting in Ankara, Turkish Minister of Energy and Natural Resources, Alp Arslan Bayraktar, confirmed his country's support for energy investments in Syria.

Referring to the project of natural gas transfer from Qatar to Europe through Syria and Turkey, he said: "For a Syria that has now achieved unity and stability, the realization of this project seems possible." He also added: "If this happens, the route must be safe. We hope that this will happen, because this is our wish."

In fact, Ankara seeks to play a pivotal role as a regional energy hub in interaction with global markets, and this project can provide new opportunities in this regard. However, the successful realization of this project requires prerequisites, the most important of which is the establishment of internal stability in Syria. Without resolving the political and security crises in this country, there will be no guarantee for the security of the pipeline and the continuation of the project.

The Project's Importance for the European Union in an Era of Reduced Dependence on Russian Gas

In recent years, political and economic developments in the energy sector have significantly reinforced the need for diversification of energy sources for the European Union. According to data from the Council of the European Union, the share of Russian gas in the EU's gas imports has decreased from more than 40 percent in 2021 to about 8 percent in 2023. This reduction is mainly due to the EU's efforts to reduce its dependence on Russian gas and increase the diversification of energy sources, particularly through imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and alternative gases. In this context, Qatari gas, as one of the world's major sources of natural gas, accounts for only about 5 percent of the EU's total gas imports. Reducing dependence on Russian gas and increasing LNG imports, despite their advantages, face challenges such as higher transportation costs and vulnerability to geopolitical disruptions.

Given the recent developments in global energy policies and changes in the EU's relations with Russia, after fifteen years, the possibility of resuming the project of transporting natural gas from Qatar to Europe through a pipeline passing through Syrian territory has been raised again. In these circumstances, the importance of energy transport through pipelines, especially given Qatar's huge natural gas reserves that have not yet been fully exploited, becomes even clearer. If the security of the route through Syria is ensured and regional stability is guaranteed, this project can become one of the main pillars in supplying Europe's energy and strengthening energy relations between the Persian Gulf region and Europe.

Strategic Implications of the Project for Iran

The implementation of this project could pose serious threats to Iran, particularly in the areas of energy security and regional economy. Given Qatar's vast gas resources and advanced infrastructure, this project has the potential to turn Qatar into a major energy supplier for Europe. On the other hand, Iran, due to sanctions and infrastructural problems, is unable to compete with this project. As a result, this project could lead to a reduction in Iran's share of global energy markets and limit the country's geopolitical position in the region. Iran may be sidelined from regional energy and security equations, while Qatar, Turkey, and Syria will take a significant place as the main players in gas transit to Europe.

Conclusion

The Qatar-Syria-Turkey gas pipeline project is undoubtedly a strategic plan with broad economic and geopolitical dimensions that can play an important role in the world after the political developments in Syria and the reduction of the European Union's dependence on Russian gas. This project can not only serve as a major source of energy supply for the European Union, but also, especially in the field of strengthening energy relations between the Persian Gulf countries and Europe, will lead to fundamental changes in the global energy structure. Especially in the post-Russian sanctions era, European countries are looking for alternative gas sources, and the Qatar-Syria-Turkey pipeline can be considered as a suitable solution to meet their energy needs. However, the success of this project depends on various factors, including stabilizing the security of the gas transit route from Syria and resolving the country's internal crises. The security of the pipeline and guaranteeing political stability in Syria, especially in areas controlled by opposition or terrorist groups, create challenges for the launch of this project. In addition, political agreements between the beneficiary countries, including Qatar, Turkey and Syria, as well as the interactions of this project with major global energy players, including the European Union and Russia, are raised as key issues for the success or failure of this project. If these challenges are resolved and security conditions are stabilized in Syria, this project can be one of the important pillars in ensuring Europe's energy security and strengthening economic and political relations in the West Asia region.

Rostam Ziaei, Expert at the Economic Diplomacy Think Tank

   (The opinions expressed are those of the authors and do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of the IPIS)