The impact of Trump's new administration and its policies has garnered significant attention and raised concerns for many countries around the globe. For over four decades, the relationship between Iran and the United States has been marked by animosity, rooted in both sides institutions. The confrontation between Iran and Israel, particularly regarding the suppression of Palestinians in occupied territories and Israel's constant threats to neighboring countries, alongside U.S. interventionist policies in the Persian Gulf and the broader Middle East, further fuels this antagonism.

During Trump's first term, U.S.-Iran relations were characterized by extreme volatility. Trump faced persistent pressure from established hawkish and Zionist lobbies to impose hard-hitting policies against Iran. The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), associated with President Obama, was disregarded by Trump from the outset. His decision to unilaterally withdraw from the JCPOA—while the deal was widely supported by Iranian citizens at the time—along with the assassination of Major General Qasem Soleimani, an Iranian national hero, left the Iranian government and society no choice but to stand firm and endure the unprecedented pressures from the U.S. However, both countries managed to control tensions and avoid war. By the end of his tenure, Trump had failed to achieve significant gains, except for the severe economic hardship imposed on ordinary Iranian people. Trump has realized that the intense pressure during his first presidency did not dismantle Iranian resistance.

Compared to the past, now, the region has experienced fundamental changes in recent years.

• The conflict between Yemen and Saudi Arabia has calmed.
• Iran and Saudi Arabia have normalized relations due to China's efforts.
• Us allies – except Isreal - understood that Trump will not provide them a security umbrella and the straightest way to a desire stability is regional cooperation.
• The ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas ended the war against Palestinians in GAZA.
• Israel's poor achievement out of the imposed war against Hamas may lead to lessening its inflammatory policies in the long run.
• Iran refrains from provoking tensions with Israel, choosing instead to observe how Israel navigates its recent contentious policies.

Israel's intentions to destroy or unfertilized any Iran-US deal are still prevalent. However, despite certain Israeli achievements, such as enforcing a ceasefire with Hezbollah in Lebanon and assassinating key leaders of Hamas, the significant socio-economic burden of 466 days of war against Hamas and committing genocide and war crimes in Gaza - resulting the warrant of arrest for Israeli Prime minister and Minister of Defense by the International Criminal Court - will have severe consequences for Israel. Unlike the previous term, Netanyahu and hardliners in Israel face diminished influence in Trump's new administration, which may lead Trump to view Netanyahu as unsuitable for advancing its policies in Middle Esat including the Arab-Israeli rapprochement. 

Learning from past experiences and considering the current situation, the prospects for a new U.S.-Iran deal appear more attainable now than at any point since 2016. A limited deal with the new administration could be achievable if the US:

• - Shows respect towards Iran and demonstrates a firm commitment to the deal.
• - Refrains from the temptation to negotiate a broad holistic deal
• - Avoids unrelated topics, such as Iran's regional policies.
• - Honors the lifted restrictions on Iran's military capabilities per the JCPOA's timeline.

Considering entrenched anti-Iran policies within the U.S. establishment and anti-US sentiments in Iran, the normalized relationship between the two countries is far to reach. Iran will be firmly committed to its anti-hegemonic stance, viewing the rejection of the current global order as integral to its identity as an Islamic Republic. In this context, Iran aims to diversify its resources by strengthening its relationships with China, Russia, and other influential nations in the Global South. However, how China and Russia reshape their relationships with the new US administration will be crucial. The Global South, including Iran, is eager to see how these two countries will negotiate with the U.S. and how committed they will remain to multilateralism and the Global South's long-lasting quest for an inclusive and fair world order.

Behzad khakpoor, Senior Researcher, IPIS

(The opinions expressed are those of the authors and do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of the IPIS)