Since the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, the head of the political office of the Islamic movement Hamas in Tehran, speculations about the goals of the Israeli regime for this terrorist act, Iran's response, and the future of tensions in the region have risen. The assassination of a political figure who had traveled to Tehran to attend the inauguration ceremony of the new president of our country, in the heart of Iran's capital, was the crossing of all red lines by the Israeli regime, a crossing that the authorities of this regime were not unaware of its implications, but the fact is that the conditions of the Gaza war have progressed for them in such a way that they needed an ambitious operation with wide implications.
Many reasons have been proposed regarding why this assassination was carried out and Netanyahu's goals and intentions in designing it. The first point of view from the perspective of regional politics is that the assassination of Haniyeh was a terrorist sabotage operation, the purpose of which was to project the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, increase tension in the region, and drag Iran into a direct war. Israeli authorities were sure, based on the experience of Operation True Promise, that Iran would react to this terror attack. With Israel's response and the start of a war, America would also enter this conflict. In this way, Iran and America would be directly involved in the war. At the current stage, the regional war is in Netanyahu's favor because it marginalizes the deplorable human situation in the Gaza Strip, stops the issue of a permanent ceasefire and the two-state plan, and on the other hand, tension between Iran and the United States causes the possible defeat of the Democrats and the possible victory of Trump; this will strongly secure Israel's future interests.
On the other hand, the timing of this assassination, which took place exactly on the day of the inauguration of the new president of Iran, shows that the Israeli authorities are worried about the approach of the Pezeshkian government in the field of foreign policy, which can lead to the resolution of many tensions between Iran and Western countries. Therefore, by carrying out this assassination and creating conditions of tension and war in the region, they tried to weaken the prospect of any change in Iran's foreign policy and close the way to the progress and improvement of Iran's political and economic situation in the domestic, regional and global arena.
The agreement between the Palestinian groups in China and the mediation of the authorities of this country to form a national unity government in the Palestinian territories and prepare the conditions for the implementation of the two-state plan was one of the other reasons that caused the authorities of the Israeli regime to think of creating chaos in the region and stop the mediating provocations of the big world powers that also consider the interests of the Palestinians.
But the most important point in the design of this assassination, which has been less discussed so far, is the identity and legitimacy crisis of the Israeli regime after the attack on the Gaza Strip. One of the basic strategies of the Israeli authorities to attract international support and aid has been to present a democratic and pacifist image of this regime, to portray Israel and the Jews as oppressed and helpless against foreign threats. But after more than 10 months of the Gaza war, this regime's continuous attacks on civilian places and imposing hunger, thirst, and displacement on the people of this strip and depriving them of minimum human rights, there is no position left for the traditional strategy of the authorities of this regime to show oppressors and retouch their actions.
The public opinion of the Western countries and even the American people, who traditionally supported Israel against the Palestinian groups, are now expressing their disgust with Israel's actions by seeing the suffering and torment of the Gazans in the media every day, and there is no day when we do not see anti-Israeli demonstrations in one of the Western and Eastern countries of Israel's allies. Although the authorities of these countries, as well as international organizations, have tried to have soft criticisms towards Israel and preserve the reputation of their traditional ally, the nations basically do not have these considerations, openly criticizing Israel and its actions in Gaza and expressing their protest and opposition to Israel's crimes in the form of various demonstrations. We saw the peak of this popular show during Netanyahu's recent visit to America and his speech in Congress. At a time when many American representatives applauded Netanyahu continuously and confirmed his anti-human approach against the Palestinian people outside the Congress, the American people chanted against Netanyahu and his policies in Gaza.
This situation was new for Netanyahu and raised alarm bells for him. Israel was supposed to always be the powerful and oppressed state of the Middle East with a positive image, and Iran and its allies are demonic powers that must be confronted. But the fact that was revealed during Netanyahu's visit was that the Gaza war has changed the world's view of Israel. In this situation, the Israeli regime needed a revolutionary action to turn the page, to turn Israel into an oppressed state and a state that is always under threat, and Iran into a rebel state that needs to be controlled.
The irresponsible policy of Western countries and the United Nations during Israel's terrorist attack on the Iranian embassy building in Damascus and that they did not take any punitive measures against Israel such as diplomatic condemnation, stoppage of arms aid, or economic sanctions against this regime, caused the Israeli authorities to conclude that their hands are open to take any action that can change the scene of the game. Their analysis was also correct. Again, as before, there was no condemnation of this regime and no sanctions, and this is the only Islamic Republic of Iran that is invited to exercise restraint and not increase tensions!
In summary, it can be said that the erosion of the Gaza war, the Israeli regime's failure to achieve their goals in this war, and their discredit from the inhumane acts in the Gaza war alongside the positive political developments in Iran and the increased possibility of improving Iran's foreign relations with different countries, encouraged Israel authorities to reduce the speed of the developments against them and move the Islamic Republic of Iran towards aggressive and costly actions. In such a situation, it seems that Iran's best response is to retaliate. Suppose the Israeli regime has not yet accepted the responsibility for Haniyeh's assassination in order to escape from its implications. In that case, the Islamic Republic of Iran must do exactly the same. Especially since Iran has made good progress in the field of micro air vehicles, smart weapons, and remote control, and now it is time to show its capabilities in this field as well. In the era of artificial intelligence, deterrence can no longer be achieved only with missile attacks, and Iran's retaliation can take innovative, low-cost, and, of course, diverse forms.
Mohammad Mehdi Mazaheri, university professor
(The opinions expressed are those of the authors and do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of the IPIS)