In 2024, the world will witness the holding of various parliamentary, local, and presidential elections. Due to the holding of elections in the countries of Russia, the US, India, Mexico, the European Parliament, the Islamic Republic of Iran, and so on, the role of this year in international relations and regulation of power at different continental levels can be evaluated as very important.

In this regard, this week, out of 260 million eligible voters in the Green Continent, about 185 million voters in 27 EU member countries participated in the parliamentary elections of this Union. Although far-right parties in the various parts of the Union met with public favor, the votes won by them did not match the predictions. So, suppose there is enough political will among moderate parties. In that case, the pro-EU coalition will still have the majority of seats in the parliament in the next five years. Despite this, the stock market of several European countries, including France, Germany, etc., received a shock of less than 2%, and the market of some countries has been subjected to a downward trend. Also, France has faced a political shock with the dissolution of the parliament by Macron.

Now that more than two decades have passed since the third millennium AD, the EU has become a superior economic power, especially in foreign exchange, which includes a huge part of the center and southeast of the Green Continent. Still, this important institution, along with its expansion and development, has not been able to prevent the emergence of a cycle of problems and challenges, especially in the security and defense sectors related to the war in Ukraine and migration from its middle and weak members. On the other hand, the rapid and uneven expansion of the Union has also been effective in causing problems. In a brief and comparative view, it can be seen that the Union has accelerated the acceptance of new members, especially from the countries of the communist camp, and many of these countries have joined without meeting the necessary components of the Union and by necessity and by taking advantage of political pressure. Of course, the Union was faced with a choice between bad and worse: either it should leave the disillusioned with communism alone and fight with complex processes such as illegal labor migration, organized mafia, and money laundering, etc., or this Union should be a solution for these countries. With all this, the eastern axis has been interested in expanding the Union to the east.

In the central and eastern parts of the Green Continent, conservative parties won the European elections in the EU member states in the Balkans and Hungary. Also, in the European elections in Slovenia, the center-right European People's (EPP) Party of former Prime Minister Janez Janša won the most seats, While Prime Minister Robert Globe's ruling Freedom Movement Party came second with two seats. Interestingly, in Croatia, with a very poor voter turnout, the ruling conservatives have won half of the seats in the EU Parliament. Polls show Croatia's ruling HDZ conservative party (EPP) has won six of the country's twelve seats in the European Parliament. Romania is sending far-right politicians to the European Parliament for the first time. Still, AUR's lower-than-expected votes have made mainstream parties in the country breathe a sigh of relief. In another country in the region, Bulgaria, former Prime Minister Boyko Borisov's GERB Party (EPP) won early Bulgarian and European Parliament elections, while Orban's Fidesz Party in Hungary suffered its worst-ever EU election result. Although the Fidesz party, led by the Hungarian prime minister, won the European elections, it was the lowest EU election result in the party's history, as the opposition won a clear victory.

One of the other important issues in Europe is issues related to defense strategy and energy supply. In evaluating the developments of the Green Continent, the role and influence of great powers such as the US, China, and Russia should always be taken into consideration. The fact is that Europe has always been the birthplace of great powers and in the late 20th century, the eastern part of the Green Continent became a field of competition and conflict between US and Russia, and we have witnessed the most important examples of this competition in important issues such as the collapse of the former Yugoslavia, the determination of the fate of Bosnia and Kosovo, the expansion of NATO to the east, the missile defense shield system, and Russia's special military operations in Ukraine. Also, Europe has always been an importer of energy after World War II. The Union has a strong dependence on the import of fuel and energy, especially oil and natural gas so more than 54% of its energy needs are supplied from imports. Now, the Union imports two-thirds of its own gas consumption, and the indiscriminate migration from east to west, especially after the crisis in Syria and Ukraine, has become an important crisis for the countries of Eastern Europe and the type of interaction of the elders of the Union with these countries. Although countries such as Germany welcome the process of immigration to provide labor, countries such as Hungary and Italy believe that the current process of immigration will change the social, cultural, and religious balance of Europe.

Although the moderate parties will still have the majority of the seats in the new European Parliament, the increase in the power of the far-right can face Ursula Gertrud von der Leyen with serious challenges on the way to regaining the seat of the chairmanship of the Union Commission. Of course, based on preliminary estimates, the grand coalition between the center-right European People's Party (EPP), the center-left Socialists and Democrats (S&D), and the liberal group Renew Europe will have 56% of the European Parliament with 403 seats. Considering that these parties have cooperated at the level of the EU for years and have built a strong wall against the entry of the radical right into the mainstream of politics in the EU, it cannot be said that the strategic policies and functional charter of the EU have undergone fundamental changes. Therefore, there will not be major problems in the continuation of the political and economic life of this important global institution. Although there will be limited changes in some European positions and the share distribution of political parties, The last word is that despite the passage of more than 28 months of war in Ukraine and all kinds of economic, social, and immigration pressures, it must be acknowledged that 70% participation in the European Parliament elections is considered a concrete success for the structural integrity of this institution and relative satisfaction with the performance of the governing institutions of the EU.

Ali Bemaneqbali Zarch, Manager of the Eurasian Studies Department

 (The opinions expressed are those of the authors and do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of the IPIS)