US-Saudi Arabia relations asymmetric mutual relations

In a world where communication mutual dependence complexity compression natural ambiguity and engineered ambiguity are its main features Utopian thinking and disconnecting with this and that will only lead to the isolation and passivity of countries
9 June 2024
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Seyyed Mohammad Hosseini

In a world where communication, mutual dependence, complexity, compression, natural ambiguity, and engineered ambiguity are its main features, Utopian thinking and disconnecting with this and that will only lead to the isolation and passivity of countries; it is as if you draw a concrete wall around you in the networked world. A rational strategy in today's world is a process that reduces one-sided dependence and ends in asymmetric mutual dependence and, finally, mutual dependence. This process depends on the situation: the creation of long-term and internal interests is what Hunter calls Intrinsic Interest. A look at the US-Saudi Arabia relations process shows the fact that the Saudis have been able to relatively reduce their security dependence on the US over the past decade and turn their relations with the US into asymmetric mutual dependence.

The position of Saudi Arabia's oil in the energy production and security portfolio since 1950 has made Saudi Arabia susceptible to the US's special attention to this country. During the past decades, the US considered political stability in Saudi Arabia as a requirement for energy security, and the US was the protector of the security of the Saudi Arabian government and ignored the primitive governance and fundamental violations of human rights in Saudi Arabia. Oil was the source of the US's internal, long-term, and inherent interests in Saudi Arabia. Still, Saudi rulers had not been able to criticize it properly in their relations with the US until 2010 because Saudi Arabia's strategy before 2010 was a survival strategy. The changes in the global economy, the coming to power of the young generation in Saudi Arabia's government, and the Arab revolutions in Tunisia and Egypt were the three factors that caused the Saudi Arabia rulers to decide to change the country's strategy from a survival strategy to a development strategy. Saudi Arabia rulers clearly saw how Hosni Mubarak stayed behind the door of the White House after facing popular protests and was rejected. Therefore, instead of placing all their eggs in the US security basket, the Saudis decided to distribute them among the Western and Eastern powers. Diversification in foreign relations with regional and global powers and geopolitical balancing took place in this direction, a process that continues now. Facilitating the investment of Eastern and Western powers in Saudi Arabia, expanding relations with China, Russia, and Turkey, investing in international financial institutions, creating a new image of Saudi Arabia in public opinion with tourist, artistic, and sports attractions, secularizing the sphere of domestic politics, reducing the burden of costly and little benefit responsibilities of Wahhabism in the region, and finally, getting rid of the war in Syria and Yemen through the normalization of relations with Iran in order to manage the tension is one of the measures that Saudi Arabia has taken since 2010 with the aim of changing the track from a survival strategy to a development strategy. These trends have had a direct effect on the relations between the US and Saudi Arabia, so the relationship between the two has changed from the state of dependence of Saudi Arabia on the US to asymmetric mutual dependence on the superiority of the US. Now, suppose the US decides to do something and tells Saudi Arabia to do it. In that case, it is simply not done because Saudi Arabia also sets conditions for carrying out US policies. A clear example of that is the US's request to Saudi Arabia to normalize relations with the Zionist regime in recent years. On the other hand, there are significant conditions that Saudi Arabia has set for this issue. It is enough to go back twenty to thirty years ago. At that time, no political analyst believed that Saudi Arabia would make a condition for carrying out US policies in the field of energy and regional policies, but today, the situation has changed. Success in politics is a process, and it seems that Saudi Arabia has gone through this process well, and this process will continue. These days, the most important issue in US-Saudi Arabia relations is the positive role that Saudi Arabia can play for the Western bloc and especially the Biden administration in the region and the Gaza crisis through the normalization of relations with the Zionist regime.

The US has asked Saudi Arabia:

  1. Saudi Arabia's relations with Israel should be recognized.
  2. Saudi Arabia should fully coordinate with the US in oil production and pricing.
  3. In case the confrontation between the US and China is activated, Saudi Arabia should stand in front of the US and end or reduce its commercial and political relations with China.

 

Saudi Arabia, however, has made the fulfillment of the above three demands subject to five conditions.

  1. Based on what the Senate has approved, the US government should conclude a new security agreement with Saudi Arabia. This agreement would be similar to the US's commitment to NATO members.
  2. The US should create a peaceful nuclear infrastructure in Saudi Arabia and allow Saudi nuclear scientists to enrich uranium under the supervision of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
  3. The US should be with Saudi Arabia more than before in implementing its policies in West Asia.
  4. The US should recognize the independent state of Palestine next to Israel.
  5. Israel should end the attacks on Gaza and Rafah.

Seyyed Mohammad Hosseini, a senior expert at the IPIS

 (The opinions expressed are those of the authors and do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of the IPIS) 

 

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