The world of politics has entered the new solar year, which, like the growth of technology, has increased the speed of political and security developments, and the international arena is involved in numerous and diverse crises, including the genocide in Gaza and the war in Ukraine, which is mainly focused on Eurasia. In the Caucasus region, new developments began in 2021 with Azerbaijan's military operations against Armenia, and the ultimate goal in this competition between the Turkish-Azerbaijani axis and Armenia is to have a greater share in dominating the Eurasian region, which has geopolitical and geoeconomic importance. Also, in the fall of 2023, the forces of the Republic of Azerbaijan captured the Karabakh region, and tens of thousands of Armenians were forced to migrate to Armenia. Now, the negotiations between the parties to hand over four villages to Azerbaijan are in the final stages. In the new situation where we are witnessing the emergence of signs of a new hot and cold war between Russia and the West, Central Asia and the South Caucasus are an important focus for the parties. The Russians are trying to increase their role and capabilities in the region in competition with America, Turkey, and even China, and in a full-scale way, monitor the movements of the neighboring countries that tend NATO. Of course, each of these countries declares its goals of providing security and dealing with terrorism, immigration, etc. In fact, it should be said that a new phase of cold and soft war and the shifting of the power puzzle's role has been established in Eastern Europe, South Caucasus, and Central Asia. If some regional powers think of changing the borders, it will have dangerous transregional implications in the third millennium.
On the one hand, the Russians generally believe that the region should not become the main focus and center of NATO's movements. On the other hand, NATO, America, and Western countries also believe that if they do not enter the region, Turkey and Russia will use their basic levers in the countries of the region and economic and energy capacities and capabilities to put more pressure on these countries and develop their influence in these countries. On the other hand, the Caucasus and Central Asia region, being at the crossroads of Europe, Asia, and the Middle East, wants to become one of the centers of the modern world structure, especially in the two vital issues of energy transfer and the fight against terrorism.
Of course, this region has many latent crises, such as Transnistria, South Ossetia, Karabakh, the border conflict between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, etc., which has strengthened the phenomenon of separatism in the region. Dealing with these crises and achieving a long-term solution that provides the interests of all parties is one of the priorities of the Islamic Republic of Iran and other regional powers and even the European Union's foreign policy officials. In the new crisis, the main victims will be the nations and countries of the region, and the important fact is that if the leaders of Azerbaijan, Armenia, and other countries in the region have tact, political sufficiency, and strong governance, they can easily prevent the occurrence of a huge and devastating disaster.
The developments in the region have attracted the attention of important powers, including the Euro-Atlantic axis, and the European Union knows very well that its interests will depend more and more on Asian and European countries in the coming decades. At the same time, Europe has tested its chances to reduce tension, and in this regard, along with several rounds of Azeri and Armenian negotiations in Brussels with the mediation of the European Union's foreign policy official, French President Emmanuel Macron also continued his diplomatic efforts to prevent the escalation of tension between Baku and Yerevan and has talked with the leaders of both sides. However, France, as a major military and diplomatic power of the European Union, has many motivations from its activity in the Central Asia and Caucasus region and the discussion of strategic arrangements on the eastern borders of the European Union because the position of France as a world power does not allow to be indifferent to such a crisis, especially since these two countries are located at the gates of Europe and in the vicinity of Russia and Iran. A region that is one of the priorities of Paris's foreign policy and security, and it is no secret that the South Caucasus is of great strategic importance. Therefore, this region should be linked to the European Union by signing the stability agreement because Europe cannot witness an unstable region on its borders for an indefinite period. The South Caucasus is the meeting point of geopolitical and energy interests and the region of conflict between America, Russia, Turkey, and Iran.
On the other side of the Atlantic, the Americans have long been trying to suddenly enter the campaign as the savior of Hollywood by creating crises and wars in different regions of the world and narrowing the field even on their friends and partners, and in this way increase their sphere of influence. In the new situation, considering the developments and crisis between Azerbaijan and Armenia, the Speaker of the House of Representatives of the United States visited Yerevan and supported the positions of this country, and in a way, repeated the artificial scenario of the trip to Taiwan in this region, by announcing the existence for Ankara and Moscow.
In this sensitive situation, it should be acknowledged that the countries of the Caucasus region and Central Asia, willy-nilly or not, are experiencing a sensitive period that has made their interests a scapegoat of foreign powers, especially Turkey, France, America, Russia, the Zionist regime, and the West. Certainly, the recent developments will have little results for the people of the region, or at least no country will win the recent events.
At the same time, the leaders of small countries in the region should know that based on historical experience in the 20th and 21st centuries, great powers find a way to agree in difficult situations and usually sacrifice the interests of small countries for their own goals and interests. Although the conditions for such a scapegoat are now very difficult, historical experience says that the smart leaders of the surrounding countries should act in such a way that they do not become the scapegoat of the great powers.
In the 13th government, the Islamic Republic of Iran has made significant political and economic movements in the region, which, while increasing the volume of economic and political exchanges and meetings at the level of leaders, confirms the continuation of balanced positions of active neutrality with the aim of active action and consultation with the leaders of the countries of the region and strengthening comprehensive cooperation.
In short, solving the problems of the countries of the region requires rational and competent governance; in addition to closely monitoring the developments and adopting appropriate and timely positions, the important approach of encouraging the parties to resolve the border and territorial disputes of the parties with the focus of negotiation and the basis of conventions and International regulations should be at the forefront of affairs because the full progress and excellence of the region depends on the establishment of stable peace and mutual trust with collective participation. The last word refers to the guidelines of the Supreme Leader regarding the impossibility of accepting any changes in the geostrategy of the region and changing the borders and communication routes of several millennia.
Ali Beman Eghbali Zarch, Head of the Eurasian Studies Department
(The opinions expressed are those of the authors and do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of the IPIS)