Which event in the region is about to explode?

In explaining the causes of revolutions in the world Theda Skocpol believes that the depth of crises and the number of crises do not necessarily lead to revolution. Some countries are suffering from deep crises but so far no revolution has occurred in those countries. On the opposite side some countries were facing ordinary and superficial crises but the superficial and apparently controlled crises led to a great revolution in those countries. In response to this equation Skocpol believes that what causes revolution is firstly the structure and arrangement of crises in relation to each other and secondly the occurrence of an event that can connect crises to each other like a chain and start a big flood like connecting small rivers to each other.
24 January 2024
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Seyyed Mohammad Hosseini

In explaining the causes of revolutions in the world, Theda Skocpol believes that the depth of crises and the number of crises do not necessarily lead to revolution. Some countries are suffering from deep crises, but so far, no revolution has occurred in those countries. On the opposite side, some countries were facing ordinary and superficial crises, but the superficial and apparently controlled crises led to a great revolution in those countries. In response to this equation, Skocpol believes that what causes revolution is firstly the structure and arrangement of crises in relation to each other, and secondly, the occurrence of an event that can connect crises to each other like a chain and start a big flood like connecting small rivers to each other.

The theory of Skocpol revolutions can be extended to the occurrence of major world and regional wars. A look at the events leading to World Wars I and II shows that the structure and arrangement of events were relatively synergistic. Events such as the assassination of the Crown Prince of Austria in World War I or the German attack on Poland in 1939 connected the crises to each other, and World War I spread.

Now, let's take a look at the state of the world today. Are the current intermittent crises in West Asia and Europe structured to create World War III or an all-out war in the region? Can the current accumulated and active crises in West Asia cause a large-scale war in the region? Which event can spark a wide and direct war between Iran and the Zionist regime?

At the global level, what can connect the crises of West Asia with the global crisis is the war in Ukraine. The developments of the war in Ukraine and the approach of Russia and Europe in the last 100 days have been such that the crisis in Ukraine does not synergize with the crisis in the Middle East. During the first days of Israel's war with Gaza, US President Biden tried to connect these two crises, but both the Russians and the Europeans were against it. Therefore, the rhetorical actions (declarative positions) and practical actions of Russia, Ukraine, and Europe went in a direction to create a buffer between the Middle East crisis and the Ukraine crisis.

The American government also agreed with Europeans and Russians in this regard. The Zionist regime was also against linking the Gaza war with the Ukraine war from the very beginning. Therefore, the crisis in Ukraine and the crisis in Gaza do not have any of the two conditions of becoming a third world war because the structure of these two crises are not synergistic with each other, and there are no signs of an event that wants to create a chain between these two crises.

In addition to the above factors, we should also mention the role of China, which is trying with all its capacity to prevent war. China's global policy shows that, at least in the current situation, it sees the occurrence of a world war against its strategic interests.

At the level of the West Asian region, however, the situation is different. A look at the acute crises of the last few weeks is enough to show that the crises were placed in a synergistic arrangement with each other.

  1. Despite some predictions, the Zionist regime continues to advance in Gaza, human casualties have exceeded 25000 people, and the regime plans to create a burnt land in Gaza.
  2. There is no news of serious confrontation and traps between Hamas and Palestinian armed groups in Gaza so far, and this has caused the Zionist regime to continue its barbaric and anti-human crimes. However, it is said that Hamas was not seriously damaged in these attacks and could start counter-attacks at the right time.
  3. The attacks of Israel and Hezbollah in the north of the Palestinian territories have been controlled despite the fluctuations, but at any moment, they may go out of control at the will of one of the parties to the conflict.
  4. The attacks of the Kata'ib Hezbollah of Iraq on American bases continue.
  5. The Yemeni army has opened a new front in the region by attacking ships bound for Israel and originating from Israel.
  6. The attacks of America and England with a coalition of other countries on Yemen and the continuation of Yemeni attacks on ships, which now include American and possibly British ships, have added to the depth of the crisis.
  7. The terrorist operations in Kerman and Iran's response to the headquarters of terrorists in Iraq, Syria, and Pakistan have highlighted another aspect of the crisis in the region.
  8. Iraq's complaint to the UN Security Council and the Arab League's front against the Islamic Republic of Iran has created a new diplomatic crisis.
  9. Pakistan's missile response to Iran's missile attacks created new conditions (Although, fortunately, the crisis was contained and managed by the two countries for the time being).
  10. The continued assassination of Iranian military advisors in Syria shows the desire of the Zionist regime to expand the war with Iran in Syria and Lebanon.

The above axis shows that the first condition for the occurrence of a large-scale regional war has been achieved because the events are synergistic with each other, and the structural arrangement of the crises has been achieved.

The second condition is a planned event or an unplanned event that, like a rosary thread, can connect the current deep and active crises and then cause a regional war that will be beyond the control of many countries. Which side of the conflict will cause this event?

Right now, Israel seems to be planning for this event. Zionist leaders probably think that, firstly, Iran and Hezbollah are not looking for the expansion of the crisis, and secondly, in case of a direct war between Israel and Hezbollah and Iran, the Arab countries will indirectly side with Israel, while others like Iraq, Turkey, and Qatar will remain neutral, and secondly, America will also be forced to enter the conflict for the benefit of Israel.

On the other hand, Iran and Hezbollah do not want to expand the war in the current situation. They have the analysis that Israel will eventually become desperate in Gaza, which is a correct and accurate analysis. Still, Iran and Hezbollah will probably be forced to enter into a direct war with Israel in the face of some planned or unplanned events; then a large-scale regional war will be inevitable.

Which planned or unplanned events can achieve Israel's target and expand the war?

  1. Israel's massive and direct attack on Hezbollah;
  2. Israel's indirect attack on Iran through assassination or sabotage of military installations inside Iran's territory;
  3. Activating ISIS suicide agents in Iran by Mossad spy services;
  4. The escalation of the Yemeni crisis due to the continuation and increase of attacks by the Yemeni army on ships;
  5. Iran's military response to the Zionist regime following the assassination of Iran's military advisers in Syria;

Each of the above events can easily connect the accumulated, structured, and active regional crises and start the widespread war in the region, in which Iran and the Zionist regime are undoubtedly the main parties.

Therefore, the sequence of regional developments and the possibility of planned or unplanned events can put the West Asian region on the threshold of a widespread and all-out war. In this regard, a smart road map should be designed for each of the above five events so that the sinister plans of the Zionist regime to destroy international and regional peace and security will disappear.

Seyyed Mohammad Hosseini, a senior expert at the IPIS

 (The opinions expressed are those of the authors and do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of the IPIS)

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