Ross Dawson, explaining the theory of chaos, says: In times of chaos, don't try to predict and instead systematically explore possible futures. After the Al-Aqsa Storm operation, the West Asian region has been involved in an acute security crisis, which has a strong potential to spread and escalate at the regional and international levels. In the monitoring process of each new event, it is necessary to measure the potential of that event to deepen or expand the crisis in the region. After the United Nations Security Council issued a resolution condemning Yemen for attacking commercial ships, a coalition of countries led by the United States and England launched an air attack on Yemeni military positions. Will this attack be a prelude to other attacks and the spread of war in the region?
For the answer, two scenarios can be drawn:
First scenario: Yemen will not face further challenges. It will threaten America and Israel on a rhetorical and declaration level, but in practice, it will stop the scope of attacks on commercial ships.
Second scenario: Yemen will continue its attacks on Israeli, American, and British commercial ships.
If the first scenario is realized, this event will not have the potential to expand the war, but if the Yemeni army continues its attacks and even escalates the attacks, then what will happen?
If the second scenario occurs, then we should compare the acute drivers of war-making and the drivers of crisis management in the region and then give them weight to see whether the worsening of the crisis between America and Yemen will will lead to the expansion of the war in the region and the joining of other actors such as Iran and Hezbollah.
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Acute drivers of war-making
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Drivers of crisis management
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The continuation of the killing of Palestinians in Gaza by Israel
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America's strategy to control the crisis
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The start of the coalition war with Yemen
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Iran's strategy of not directly entering the war
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Increase in Hezbollah's conflicts with Israel
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Hezbollah's strategy of limited war with Israel
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Israel's strategy to expand the war
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Diplomacy of Arab countries to control the crisis
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Attacks by resistance groups in Iraq against America
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Considerations of the internal conditions of America, Iran, Lebanon
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According to the above table, the drivers of crisis management are much more powerful than the acute drivers of war-making in the current situation. It is enough to pay attention to Biden's speech after the coalition attack on Yemen to understand the seriousness of the parties to manage the crisis. Based on this, it seems that even if the war between the United States and Yemen enters a new phase after the possible response of the Yemeni army to the United States, this event cannot create a regional war in the short term.
However, considering the uncertainties and dynamics of transformations in the Middle East region, it can be said that the miscalculations of regional and extra-regional actors can change the direction of drivers of crisis management to acute drivers of war-making. In this context, all parties must address and stop the attacks of the Zionist regime on Gaza as the origin of the recent tensions and instability because this fire can spread to other areas at any moment.
Seyyed Mohammad Hosseini, a senior expert at the IPIS
(The opinions expressed are those of the authors and do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of the IPIS)