Although the uncertainties are abundant and the current scene of the Gaza battlefield is complex, the events needed for World War III are sufficient. Still, the necessary drivers for World War III are insufficient.
A look at the events leading to World Wars I and II shows that the intensity of the wars and hatred of the parties to the current events is no less than those leading to World Wars I and II. In World War I, the assassination of the Austrian Crown Prince put Austria a war with Serbia. Russia, then in support of Serbia and Germany in support of Austria, came to a conflict to begin World War I. In World War II, Japan's militarization against China and the Italian invasion of Ethiopia had prepared the world for another war. Still, the German invasion of Poland in 1939 and the arrival of France and Britain in support of Poland caused World War II. Events are now sufficient for the start of World War III:
Firstly, Europe in the Ukrainian issue is involved in a war of attrition with Russia;
Secondly, Russia finds its global prestige at risk and, in addition to being involved in a war of attrition, also faces Western sanctions;
Thirdly, in the Middle East, Hamas's conflict with Israel has been activated, and there is a fateful war in the region;
Fourthly, the Resistance Front also supports Israeli needs, United States funding and weapons, and Hamas, and there is a possibility of war being widespread.
However, deterrent drivers of World War III are active at the point of confrontation. Despite the ambiguities and uncertainty in the current complex environment, they have created hope that current war events do not expand and do not lead to World War III, but what are the deterrent drivers for World War III?
- The growth of human rationality and awareness of the widespread damages of war in the international community compared to the past is the most important obstacle to the spread of war.
- In the current situation, we have no character like Hitler in current events. Even Netanyahu is reluctant to preserve and survive.
- The moves of the Resistance Front in Iraq, Yemen, Syria, and Lebanon were deterrents to the United States entering the war in favor of the Zionist regime.
- The United States' actions and statements by the White House officials are also signs of the United States' deterrent to the Resistance Front so that they will not enter the war in favor of Hamas.
- Approximately evidence shows that in the present situation, Lebanon's Hezbollah is reluctant to open the war front in the north of the occupied territories against Israel.
- Israel has a developmental temperament, but in the current situation, it is fighting for prestige and survival.
- The costs of spreading the war for the United States and China are far greater than its cross and case profits.
- The networking of the World Value Chain transforms the expansion of war in global coordinates for all countries sharing in this network into a loss equation.
So, events for the start of World War III can be contemplated, but spending on the events does not lead to war. Rather, drivers are needed to start a large event to connect events as a rosary thread. In World War I and II, drivers such as German territorial development, the militarization of revisionists, Hitler's psychoanalysis and personality, limited human rationality, etc., played the role of diverse connecting events, but now these drivers are weak.
Seyyed Mohammad Hosseini, senior expert of the IPIS
(The opinions expressed are those of the authors and do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of the IPIS)