Changing the equations of the conflict with the Al-Aqsa storm operation

The Al-Aqsa storm operation was a full-scale offensive and combined operation. This operation was carried out in the capacity of several battalions and caused a great surprise to the Israeli regime from the very beginning of the operation; like the initiative of Hezbollah in Lebanon in the ۳۳-day war, it gave the initiative to the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) to take another strategic step forward in the path of improving the balance of deterrence.
8 October 2023
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Mojtaba Ferdowsipour

The Al-Aqsa storm operation was a full-scale offensive and combined operation. This operation was carried out in the capacity of several battalions and caused a great surprise to the Israeli regime from the very beginning of the operation; like the initiative of Hezbollah in Lebanon in the 33-day war, it gave the initiative to the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) to take another strategic step forward in the path of improving the balance of deterrence.

Al-Aqsa storm operation was carried out with the aim of violent response to past and present Zionist encroachments on Islamic holy sites, especially Al-Aqsa Mosque and the desecration of the Holy Quran, but we should consider this operation as a new paradigm and matrix in the equations of the conflict between the Islamic Resistance Movement and the Zionist regime because the concepts of the future should be measured based on it and will be different from the previous concepts, in such a way that this operation is unique since the last classical war of the Arab armies with the Zionist regime in 1973. In terms of information, the speed of operations, superior tactics and surprise, the amount of human and material damage to the enemy, the increased inefficiency of the Iron Dome, and the weakness of political and war management can be mentioned.

Therefore, it is important to mention some of its cases in comparison with the past operations of the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement.

First, according to the type of operations formed in the conflicts between the Islamic Resistance Movement and the Zionist regime, the result has been the formation of a balance of terror and limited deterrence. Since the Zionist regime has nuclear weapons, the possibility of balance of power is basically ruled out. Therefore, achieving the balance of terror and limited deterrence is an indicator of the success of the Islamic Resistance Movement in this field, which we must indeed consider the achievement of the proud commander, Martyr, on the way to Quds, Sardar Soleimani (RA).

But what has happened since yesterday is, in my opinion, a strategic balance with a positive balance on the side of the Islamic Resistance Movement because, despite the passage of nearly 48 hours since the beginning of the Al-Aqsa storm operation, Zionism is still confused. The reason for this is that the West, especially the United States of America, has put its unprecedented capacities at the disposal of Zionism through direct and indirect contact. Let's not forget that the Secretary General of Lebanon's Hezbollah had previously emphasized that with every Zionist strategic error and aggression, the Islamic Resistance Movement would design and implement the war deep in the occupied territories. Therefore, power transmission through paragliders and the use of helicopters, quadcopters, and drones were the main and fundamental variables in forming this balance, which in turn is very important. Therefore, the display of the Islamic Resistance Movement in the implementation of military operations in the depth of the occupied settlements in the vicinity of the border belt of the Gaza Strip is a sign of strength, intelligence, and complete full preparation of the Islamic Resistance Movement.

Second, the measures adopted, the high level of cover and the strong information protection of operations, led to the defeat of the Zionist army in the early hours of the operation based on the Islamic Resistance Movement on the principle of surprise. The importance of this event is that Israel was surprised by the illusion of having a spy network inside the Gaza Strip until hours after the operation was carried out, and in addition to the regime, the regime's allies were surprised.

Third, the heavy losses and capture of a large number of Israeli officers and soldiers and the dispersion of the operational area, whose statistics are still avoided, have depleted the capacity of this regime to manage the time and places of operations. Therefore, the Israeli regime must either forget Israeli captives and launch a ground attack on Gaza, in which case it will have to accept the conflict and war on the southern borders of Lebanon and the Golan Heights with Syria, which is difficult and or accept the humiliating compromise by accepting Palestinian conditions.

Fourth, suppose the Zionist regime accepts a humiliating compromise based on the conditions and terms of the Islamic Resistance Movement and Islamic Jihad Movement. In that case, the Israeli civil society will completely distrust Netanyahu's government and his army. Based on this, the army will completely lose its deterrent capacity.

Fifth, let's not forget that the security-defense facilities of the Islamic Resistance Movement have been formed underground in the Gaza Strip, and according to this, the entry of the Israeli army into the Gaza Strip will be a kind of fire game. In this case, we must add heavy human casualties and Israeli soldier's captivity to the statistics of the Al-Aqsa storm operation.

Sixth, the Al-Aqsa storm operation has two special features:

  1. We should consider it as a turning point in the history of the Islamic Resistance Movement and judge the events after this with the indicators before and after the Al-Aqsa storm operation.
  2. The change and continuity features: there is no doubt that after this, the Islamic Resistance Movement will conduct the war with Israel on the same principle and only with a tactical change, and this is one of the secrets of the Al-Aqsa storm operation, which its operational areas will be clearer in the future.

Seventh, the Al-Aqsa storm operation has another distinct feature that should not be neglected, and that is that it squeezed the throat of Abraham Accords impure peace, and on this basis, it should be acknowledged that the normalization processes with Zionism as a puppet power are facing decline.

Mojtaba Ferdosipour, Manager of West Asia and North Africa Study Department

(The opinions expressed are those of the authors and do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of the IPIS)

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