John Joseph Mearsheimer, the famous theorist of aggressive realism, believes in the book "The Tragedy of Great Power Politics": to maintain and reproduce its hegemonic order, America always seeks to destroy the balance of power and formulate a new balance of power at the international level. With the benefit of Mersheimer's theory and historical experiences after World War II, also looking at America's behavior and policies towards the war in Ukraine, we can find that the warring parties in the war in Ukraine appear to be Russia and Ukraine, but Russia and America. Based on this, we should draw the forecast for the future of the war in Ukraine according to the will of Washington and Moscow.
In the initial planning they designed to attack Ukraine, Russian officials predicted and planned the occupation of Kyiv within three days and the occupation of the whole of Ukraine within a week. But their brief war was suddenly attrition. The strength of Ukraine's resistance was not in the strength of the Kyiv National Army but in the logistical and political support of the Western Front led by America. America considered the war in Ukraine as a golden opportunity to formulate a new international order. In other words, after the ruins of the war in Ukraine, America dreamed of the formation of the international order after World War II, an order in which all the claimant powers were weakened and exhausted or defeated due to the war, and the intact power of America became the architect of the world order in 1945; an order that was manifested in the structure of the Security Council and the United Nations.
After the collapse of the soviet and the attack on Iraq in 1991, the United States planned a new world order to stabilize the unipolar order. Still, it did not succeed, and the structure of the international system changed from bipolar to unipolar. Now, in the perception of American leaders, the war in Ukraine has created a new golden opportunity for formulating a unipolar system. From their point of view, the freezing and erosion of the war in Ukraine will weaken both Russia and Europe; it will make the European Union more dependent on America, revive NATO, and make joining it more attractive; it will reverse the direction of foreign investments that had been moving from America to Europe and Asia in recent decades, and finally, with the security of international discourse, the power of American action will increase.
The Americans are not worried about China's growing power either because they believe that China will seek to change the order within the framework of the capitalist system for at least the next ten years. China has gained power in the capitalist system and does not have anti-systemic policies. However, it seeks to change the order within the system so that China's share in the international economy will increase increasingly. Therefore, the reason for the erosion of the war in Ukraine is America's will to formulate a new world order based on the model of World War II.
The formulation of the new international order results from the following opportunities in the Ukraine war:
- Ukraine is not a strategic region for the West, whose possible collapse would endanger the strategic interests of the Western countries. Therefore, this is an opportunity crisis for America and the West.
- The continuation of the war in Ukraine will bring Russia into military and political erosion and will reduce Moscow's global prestige, especially in public opinion.
- The Russia-Ukraine war has strengthened transatlantic and European Union member's convergence.
- This war has given NATO a new identity and increased the attractiveness of joining NATO.
- By making the green continent more secure, the war in Europe provides the possibility of more American influence and more military, political and economic benefits for Washington.
- This war has enabled the possibility of pressure levers on Russia and gaining points from Putin in other areas.
- The discourse of economic sanctions against militarism; is a valuable lever for America. The regime of economic and political sanctions against Russia makes this lever more active and global.
- By sanctioning and isolating Russia, competition and possible confrontation with China will also be easier for America.
- By polarizing the international security discourse, the war in Ukraine will reduce Russia's influence in the strategic region of the Middle East.
- The war in Ukraine has reproduced the process of antagonizing Russia and Moscow's allies in the international security discourse.
- Ukraine war by creating a potential military threat; it has provided the basis for sending and selling weapons to Western weaponry companies.
- This crisis has changed energy diplomacy in favor of America and Washington's regional allies.
- Iran's strategic relations with Russia have provided an excuse to accuse Iran of indirectly interfering in the war in Ukraine.
- The start of the war by Russia has also given America an excuse to start a war against another country.
Seyyed Mohammad Hosseini, senior expert of the Institute for Political and International Studies
(The opinions expressed are those of the authors and do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of the IPIS)