The US presidential election future scenarios

By determining the congressional elections results, American domestic politics news will have effect on the ۲۰۲۴ presidential election.
23 November 2022
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Seyed Vahid Karimi

 By determining the congressional elections results, American domestic politics news will have effect on the 2024 presidential election. Few predictions for the future American government are imagined, which paying attention to them can be a key for adjusting the foreign policy with the United States.

Many countries from now have openly and secretly announced their support for one of the possible candidates or put on their agenda. Some countries are trying to applyiung influence and choose the desired candidate by investing in the US presidential elections. As such an issue was raised so much during the presidency of Donald Trump.

The November elections results of the US Senate and Representatives House were surprising for Democrats as handed over the Congress to the Republicans, because they were waiting for a red wave. One of the reasons for the Democrats scandalous non-failure in the recent elections is the people of color issue. In other words, one of the reasons that Donald Trump, the previous president, emphasizes and continues on fraud in elections; is a way to stimulate people of color by providing more facilities to participate in elections in different states.

The population composition of the voters in the United States has been paid less attention in the results of the elections in the United States. Opinions about the majority of people of color or white Europeans are varied, and official statistics based on the people of color majority and their dominance over whites or "rednecks" which Trump is from that family group are not available, and official institutions refuse to provide correct statistics based on the people of color majority.

A lot of evidence indicates that The US has long been in the hands of the color of people majority in terms of population composition; but the red neck whites try to hide it with different tricks. If the majority population of color of people in the US is announced and recorded, it will definitely have a significant impact on domestic politics and the future congress and presidential elections. As it is evident from the election issues, besides the economic issues, there are issues discussed and presented to the voters that are interesting to the people of color or in opposition to them in order to bring them to the poll boxes by arousing the people of color and dissuade them from disinteresting to vote.

However, in the 2024 elections, two phenomena; Trump personality and Biden's old age are of great importance. Because with Trump's candidacy in the 2024 election, competition and public opinion excitement will increase, and these conditions will benefit the Democratic Party. Also, the old age of Joe Biden is another element in public opinion that may ultimately lead to the loss of the Democratic Party.

The US political system is based on Check and Balance. Usually, the White House and Congress are in political conflict, which will make the Democrats have more chance for appropriation of the White House compared to the Republicans. Also, American voters traditionally believe that if the White House is in the Democrats possession; congress is in the hands of the opposition party, i.e. the Republicans, to monitor one another. In this frame work, one of the possibilities for the US presidency future in 2024 is the re-election of the Democrats for the White House. Because for the next two years, the Congress will be in possess of the Republicans.

For example, the current president Biden will refer any shortcoming in the implementation of social welfare for the people to the excuses and obstructions by the Republicans in the Congress in the future presidential competitions, thus attracting the votes of the American people in opposition to the Republican Party.

The Trump elimination from the electoral competition is the next possibility and scenario. Because Trump is currently being prosecuted because of the political and economic charges in several US courts. These conditions cause that the possibility of his elimination from the presidential candidacy not far-fetched.

The next scenario is the replacement of Joe Biden by another candidate from the Democratic Party. Although current predictions indicate that if Trump is become candidate nominated, the Biden chance of being chosen for the Democratic candidate are high; so, Biden will not withdraw from the presidential candidacy until Trump's condition is clarified. Unless he is sure about the end of Trump's political life.

Another possibility is the selection of a new candidate by the Republican Party, which compared to Biden or his successor, has a better, progressive and strong economic and social welfare program.

Therefore, the results of the future presidential elections in the United States are considered important for third countries in setting relations with the United States; because there is a huge difference in the Republicans and Democrats foreign policy. Democrats are introverts and Republicans are extroverts. Democrats are cautious in foreign policy and won't take action without Republicans, especially if they possess Congress and commissions. This is despite the fact that important international political agreements have always been made by Republicans. Of course, agreement with the Republicans does not mean solving the conflicts, but Republican Party’s being "doer" compared to the Democrats in foreign policy is desired. In this regard, finally, the JCPOA agreement between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the democratic Obama administration and its revival during the time of Biden did not have a favorable result for implementation, and create obstacles by republicans was evident. As it is heard, the Saudi government also wants Republicans to dominate the White House elections in 2024.

(The authors are responsible for the content of the content and do not represent the views of the Center for Political and International Studies)

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