The geo-politics of the black sea has a paradoxical destiny. This region which has been away from heavy clashes over the last 150 years has been witnessing struggles to rebalane regional power after the soviet union collapse. The Nato is making efforts to strengthen its eastern flank; while Russia sees the region as its strategic bastion. While there is a risk of Russia Nato confrontation, the eastern european countries along the black sea shores have multidimensional concerns over security and energy supply as well as potential Russian and even Turkish threats. Although these countries like to see an end to the wars and clashes, considering their limited political, economic and defense capabilities , they have little leverage to influence the violent developments in the Karaback region.

The geo-political destiny of the black sea is a paradoxical one; in contemporary history, although, the region has been away from intense confrontaion over the last 150 years because it had not been dragged in the two world wars or the “cold war” , major developments and efforts have been launched to rebalance power in the reigon. The mediterranean overfolwed from its natural birthplace, the black sea, thousands of years ago and was named the great Mediterranean sea; but after the former Soviet and Turkish domination ended, the reconstruction of the “ new west” and the “new east” confrontation has reconfigurated the region again. The region has a colorful tapistry of counries with various cultures, religions, ethnicities and nations. In the west and south, Romania, Bulgaria and Turkey are members of the Nato; in the north, with an undemarcated Russian-Polish border, there is great potential for instability and insecurity. The region has experienced many historical crises including  Transnistria, Ossetia, Abkhazia, Karaback and the Donbass which are still like fire under ashes that could erupt every moment in a wider area of the black sea region. In addition, the coastal states and their allies’ militray activities have been  ramped up on land , in the sea and in air as well and there has been an accumulation of the most modern forces and weaponry. Also , the regional tensions have intensified by resurfacing chronic showdowns between Turkey and Greece , though, its main flank being toward the eastern mediterranean. In another part, the Armenian Azeri dispute has reemerged and Turkey is a serious contender in the developments while Russia intelligently watching the currents with a delay.

The black sea is an strategic bastion for Russia and strategic region for the Nato, and beside the recent clashes in Karabach and the possibility of escalation of clashes in eastern Ukraine or the surroundings of Crimea or the sea of Azov, this region has gained extraordinary importance for coastal countries especially Russia, Turkey and Romania. Of course, for the present, Russia’s top priority is a perspective for more growth and strengthening its equipment and sea capabilities. The Nato’s military presence and its activities and especially the US presence in the black, could result in moer militarization of the region and a greater risk of direct confrontaion of Russia and Nato. with an area of about 450,000 square km, this sea has become a space for confrontation and with the Crimea annexation to Russia, the sea of Azov has practically becom a “Russian lake” in its 30,000 square km of area. Renovation of the Russian military infrastructure and equipemnt in the northern black sea, makes the region the “strategic southern bastion” of the Russian federation which has been designed to block west’s influence and advance toward the eastern part of Europe which neighborrs Russia’s borders. With the annexation of the Crimeam peninsula to Russia, Romania and Bulgaria feel a pressing need for cooperation within the framework of the North Atlantic Treaty (Nato). Jens stoltenberg, secretary general of Nato, has declared the black sea a “strategic region” and says Nato will strengthen its presence in the region. Shortly , on Sep 5, 2020, Sergey Shoygu, the Russian secretary of defense, in response to the statements made by the Nato secretary general and ponting to the rising Nato navy presence in the black sea said:” There are navies and flottilas of noncoastal countries in the region and we are closely watching them. What are they doing here? Naturally, we will stop at nothing to protect  our country against any threats.”

In a research carried out , titled” One Flank, One Threat, One Presence: A Strategy for NATO’s Eastern Flank” ,the authors have made practice recommendations and offered  methods for global aligning of NATO’s Eastern Flank which stretches from the arctic down to the Caucasus including the Baltic and black sea littorals. It is the longest and perhaps the most vulnerable sector of the Alliance and is exposed daily to military probing, subversion, disinformation, cyberattacks, and overt diplomatic and economic pressure. This tiered approach to deterrence capabilities created a degree of incoherence along the Eastern Flank, and offering a coherent strategy in the Baltic and black sea regions by balancing the capabilities for creating a united flank is necessary. To this end, NATO has to step up the priority level of the region and reach a consensus about the threats arising from air and missile raids, and integrate the various defense capabilities of its eastern flank. The piece recommends that the US and Nato need a more effective coordination across the Baltic region and have to develop their inteligence, surveillance and detection capabilities in the black sea.

Also Nato has to strengthen Romania as the focal point of the region by helping improve its railway and road infrastructure and speeding up the efforts to complete its regional command and control capabilities, because along the easter flank, Romania is the most vulnerable member of Nato. On the other side, the eastern flank’s strategic participation in the black sea region must be strengthened by diplomatic and political initiatives  to clear distrust and suspicions among the relations of the countries in the region and other ally countries through dialogue and measures. Trust and security in the strategic relations between Russai’s western borders and Nato along with a safe and sustainable environment will be achieved only within the wider framework of the relations between the Atlantic alliance and the Russian federation by considering the security interests of all countries in the wider black sea area . Generally, the black sea bordered east european countries have multidimensional concerns over security and energy supply as well as potential Russian and even Turkish threats. Although these countries like to see an end to the wars and clashes, considering their limited political, economic and defense capabilities , they have little leverage to influence the violent developments in the Karaback region.

  (The opinions expressed are those of the authors and do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of the IPIS)