In 2001, the US president George W. Bush ordered the launch of US military campaign in Afghanistan while his decisions had been challenged in the wake of the September 11 attacks and he had strategic doubts more than ever. Washington’s justification for its doubts was the involvement of al-Qaeda, led by Osama bin Laden, in the September 11 attacks. The US said the purpose of the war was to destroy terrorism of al-Qaeda and the Taliban in Afghanistan. It should be remembered that the process leading to the Taliban rule in Afghanistan was itself an outcome of decades of joint planning by the US, Pakistan and, a number of Persian Gulf Arab states for the formation of armed groups in Afghanistan to confront with Soviet Union. After the Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan, these forces turned into a security problem for Afghanistan, the regional countries, and even the countries outside the region. Before the US occupation of Afghanistan, George Bush mounted a massive propaganda campaign to persuade the American people and many world countries that without a US military presence in Afghanistan, the door would be open to terrorists and insecurity would engulf the entire world. Therefore, many countries supported the US military attack on Afghanistan, from the UK to the Russian Federation and mainly the US’ European allies and the NATO members.

 On September 20, 2001, the US said that Osama bin Laden had a role in the September 11 attacks and made a five-point ultimatum to the Taliban considering Bin Laden’s residence in Afghanistan:

1. All al-Qaeda leaders must be handed over to the United States.

2. All foreign prisoners held captive by the Taliban must be freed and handed over to the United States.

3. All Taliban’s terrorist training camps must be closed.

4. All terrorists and their sponsors must be identified and handed over to the officials.

5. The United States must be given full access to terrorist training camps for inspection.

The Taliban did not approve of any of the demands. On September 22, 2001, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates withdrew their recognition of the Taliban as the legal government of Afghanistan. After a warning from George Bush that Pakistan is either with or against the US, Pakistan also withdrew the recognition of the Taliban upon a historic decision made by General Pervez Musharraf. On Sunday, October 7, 2001, the American and British forces launched Operation Enduring Freedom (OEF) and began an aerial bombing campaign targeting the Taliban forces and al-Qaeda in Afghanistan without a mandate from the United Nations. The Taliban forces fled to Tora Bora Mountains and the Battle of Tora Bora, involving the US, British, and a number of Northern Alliance forces took place in December 2001 to completely destroy the Taliban and al-Qaeda in Afghanistan.

 In early March 2002, the United States military, along with the Northern Alliance forces, conducted a large operation codenamed Operation Anaconda. In the operation, nearly all operational forces of the Taliban were killed or fled to Pakistan, and their organization fell apart. However, the US and its allied forces did not pull out of Afghanistan and began to define new missions. Since January 2006, the NATO International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) undertook combat duties from Operation Enduring Freedom in southern Afghanistan. The NATO force was chiefly made up of British, Canadian and Dutch forces, and some smaller contributions from Denmark, Romania, and Estonia and air support from Norway as well as air and artillery support from the US. In the meantime, the United States was also conducting many military operations independently and without coordination with NATO as part of Long Term Freedom Operations, including many blind attacks that resulted in civilian casualties. The US was supported by many countries and allies during Long Term Freedom Operations in 2001–2003. Since 2006, more than 40 countries were involved in the war.

 In 2015, the Afghan Army gradually began to take over the operation, and the foreign forces’ mission changed from operation to training and assisting under the Resolute Support Mission. While there was no more justification for the presence of foreign forces in Afghanistan, the US and Afghanistan signed the Strategic Partnership Agreement, and the US stabilized its long-term presence in Afghanistan. Sometime after the successful military operation against the Taliban, a new chapter of defeats for the United States began in Afghanistan. The Taliban could replenish forces this time and launched a battle against the American forces. 19 years after the beginning of the US war on Afghanistan, the Taliban have gained more power day by day and the Afghan people have developed a growing aversion to the US presence because of the American forces’ performance and behavior in Afghanistan, their untrue reasons, and justifications for the war on terrorism in Afghanistan. The question that arises is whether the US is really incapable of destroying a terrorist group or it has preserved the security crisis in Afghanistan in order to justify the American presence in that country.

 In an article on December 29, 2019, The New York Times looked into the cost of 19 years of US military presence in Afghanistan. According to the report, the cost of the American presence in Afghanistan amounts to $2 trillion. It has also noted that more than 2,400 American soldiers and more than 38,000 Afghan civilians have died in 19 years of war in Afghanistan, while such costly US presence in Afghanistan has only enabled the Taliban to control more areas and has hindered economic development in that country. Afghanistan remains one of the world’s largest sources of refugees and migrants.

 Nearly 19 years after the US military campaign in Afghanistan, an end to the war with the Taliban was declared on February 29, 2020, after the US and Taliban signed a peace agreement. A review of developments throughout these years, all of US decisions and plans on invading Afghanistan and deployment of forces reveal that the US had not entered Afghanistan temporarily. It is still hard to believe that the US has plans to withdraw from Afghanistan.

The first two clauses in Part One of the peace agreement between the US and the Taliban has defined the procedures and timetable for the withdrawal of American forces from Afghanistan and five military bases. According to the agreement, the number of forces will be reduced to 8,600 in the first 135 days, and the US and the Western allies will complete withdrawal of all remaining forces from Afghanistan within the remaining nine and a half months. The 14-month timeline for a complete withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan will finish when the US presidential election will have ended. No matter who will be elected the US president, this agreement may not be implemented under the new conditions for various reasons. What is more likely is that the Trump administration will be taking advantage of the agreement to run its election campaign ahead of the upcoming presidential election, and will then renege on the agreement with the Taliban on the paper under various pretexts and will go back on its promise of complete withdrawal from Afghanistan, so that the pullout will not take place. It is not clear what will happen in Afghanistan during these 14 months. According to statistics, the US has spent more than $2 trillion in Afghanistan in 19 years, mainly on the construction and equipment of five military bases in Afghanistan. In the recent developments in Iraq, when the Iraqi Parliament ratified a bill on the expulsion of American forces from the Arab country, Trump and the other US officials immediately proposed the idea of receiving compensation for withdrawal from Iraq and for the expensive military bases, but such compensation has not been claimed in Afghanistan. Is the US going to hand over the five well equipped military bases in Afghanistan to the Taliban, which has described itself as the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan in the peace agreement? If these bases are handed over to the Taliban, and then the very same matters of US concern recur, i.e. the return of al-Qaeda to Afghanistan, what excuse will the US make up this time to prevent Afghanistan from turning into a hub of international terrorism? Afghanistan is predicted to face bloody days and months ahead, some signs of which have already become evident. The fatal attack that ISIS launched in Kabul on March 6 on a gathering marking the anniversary of the death of Abdul Ali Mazari does not bode well at all. It appears that the US has started a dangerous game in Afghanistan which would result in a civil war in Afghanistan in the short term and will further complicate the situation in Afghanistan.

However, the situation is unsteady on the other side as well, as there is no guarantee that the Taliban will honor the peace agreement with the US even if the American forces withdraw from Afghanistan completely. Only a few days after signing of the peace agreement, the Taliban or its sponsors have made comments suggesting that the Taliban seeks to halt the US military supports for the Afghan government forces in order to retake power with the use of violence and military action and implement the idea of establishing an Islamic Emirate without consultation with the other actors. The assertion made by the Taliban's leader Mullah Hebatullah Akhundzada that “nobody should be afraid as we will forgive everyone” is a sign of the Taliban’s determination to form a government rather than an expression of the Taliban leader’s view about people of Afghanistan, otherwise, what power and position does the Taliban leader have to grant amnesty for the Afghan people?

 Such paradoxes are also obvious in the legal aspects of the peace agreement. There is a noteworthy issue in Article 5 of Part Two in the agreement, which says the Taliban will not provide visas, passports, or travel permits to the enemies of the US. Such authority is only within the purview of a government. Accordingly, the US has somehow acknowledged in the agreement that the Taliban will form a government in the future. The US has not recognized the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan as a state, but as soon as the Taliban takes power and declares its government the Islamic Emirate, all countries recognizing that state will have to use this name.

 There are also a series of other legal deficiencies in the agreement, raising the serious question that how the US, which claims to be the top power in all fields, has signed such a deal with so many legal deficiencies. In Part Two of the agreement, which mentions the Taliban’s commitments, every single commitment from the Taliban demonstrates the capacities of a powerful government in charge. According to one of the articles, the Taliban is committed to preventing any group or individual from using the soil of Afghanistan to threaten the security of the United States. Is such commitment given by an opposition group whose forces have neither a definite uniform nor a fixed position and base? Therefore, not only does the US lack the competence to sign such an agreement with a group but also has interfered in the internal affairs of Afghanistan by dealing with an opposition group. The US has entered into an agreement with a group that has no political, security, and military position in Afghanistan. Were the American authorities and experts not mindful of the fact that signing such an agreement with an opposition group would be an insult to the Afghan government and a disregard for the achievements of the US and the West in Afghanistan over the past 19 years, as they proudly talk about the establishment of legal institutions in Afghanistan? It seems that Trump cares neither about the political future of Afghanistan nor about ending two decades of futile war in that country that has killed thousands of innocent people. What matters to Trump at present is the instrumental use of the Afghanistan issue as a trump card in the electoral campaign. In fact, the US president has sacrificed the future of political developments in Afghanistan for his own election campaign objectives. Trump seeks to attract the American voters ahead of the 2020 presidential election by claiming that he has fulfilled one of his campaign promises, has brought the US troops back to home, and has rid the US of the heavy cost of the war in Afghanistan.

A comparison between the five conditions that the US had set for the Taliban in 2001 and the peace agreement of 2020 reveals that after sustaining such heavy financial losses and casualties, the US is still seeking the fulfillment of the five conditions which had set in 2001 and have never been observed by the Taliban. What is predictable in the current situation is that the Taliban might misuse the status quo in Afghanistan, where a lack of transparent election results and suspicion of election fraud under Ashraf Ghani’s administration has created a deep rift between the governmental forces, and where a reduction of US forces to 8,600 will make them useful only for protecting the American bases, without the ability to carry out military operations. The Taliban is expected to gradually force the Afghan security forces out of the regions from which the American troops will withdraw. The establishment of a multipolar system in Afghanistan could allow the Islamic Emirates to expand the regions under its control rapidly and play the role of an unofficial government. The Taliban may also show self-restraint for a while, wait until the US withdrawal, and then launch the measures to take power. Of course, waiting for 14 months would not be so long for the Taliban and its supporters who have already waited for 19 years.

(The opinions expressed are those of the authors and do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of the IPIS)