The message of rationality and deterrence

The meaning and semiotics of the secretary-general of Hezbollah, Seyyed Hassan Nasrallah, on Friday, November 3, with the technique of qualitative content analysis, showed his message was based on two axes of rational behavior and Hezbollah deterrence.
04 November 2023
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The meaning and semiotics of the secretary-general of Hezbollah, Seyyed Hassan Nasrallah, on Friday, November 3, with the technique of qualitative content analysis, showed his message was based on two axes of rational behavior and Hezbollah deterrence.

The most important axes of the message of the secretary-general of Hezbollah were:

  1. Al-Aqsa Storm was planned and implemented by Hamas (military branch), and Hezbollah and Iran were not during the operation.
  2. Al-Aqsa Storm is the natural result of the Gaza siege since 2006 by the Zionists.
  3. The Islamic Republic of Iran supports the Resistance Front but does not lead it.
  4. The pillars of resistance, including Hezbollah, are responsible for Hamas.
  5. Hezbollah's assistance to Hamas has so far been a limited operation in northern Palestine, with one-third of the Israeli military occupied.
  6. If the Zionist regime attacks Lebanon, it will be historical stupidity.
  7. If the United States enters the war (against Iran or Hezbollah), Hezbollah has the necessary tools to hit the United States cruiser.
  8. The United States is responsible for the Zionist crimes in Gaza, and the United States is responsible for these crimes.
  9. Prisoners are released only by negotiation, and the Zionist regime cannot achieve its goals with military operations.
  10. Hezbollah's war strategy may change in the coming days.

From Seyyed Hassan Nasrallah's statements, it can be concluded that Hezbollah, in the current situation, does not intend to open a full-fledged war front in the north of the occupied territories. Hezbollah, of course, has been able to occupy some of the Zionist forces since the operation of the Al-Aqsa Storm and has been hit by some defensive measures. Of course, the Zionist regime, for some reason, does not want to enter the conflict with Hezbollah. Prior to the statements of Seyyed Hassan Nasrallah, the regime's army spokesman Richard Hecht also said that Israeli forces are stationed and ready on the Lebanese border and are in defense.

Also, the phrases Palestinian Operation 100% of Hamas on October 7 and The Freedom of Resistance Commanders in Taking Separate War Measures (used by Seyyed Hassan Nasrallah) show that as long as there is no military attack by Israel and America on Iran or Lebanon, the Resistance Front will not assume offensive status. In fact, if the Zionist regime expands military operations in the ground war and intensifies the human casualties, the possibility of a preemptive attack by Hezbollah will increase (all options are open).

Hezbollah considers the Zionist army to be vulnerable to Hamas's surprise traps in Gaza, and as the Gaza war continues, attacks on US bases in the region will also increase. However, the subject of captives on both sides can be the primary and main basis for forming a ceasefire and bargaining on both sides.

The revelation of the Zionist regime's war crimes in Gaza, the support of global public opinion for the Palestinian people, and the discredit of the Islamic governments who entered diplomatic relations with the Zionist regime are the bargaining chip of the Resistance Front in this crisis. So, the Gaza war will be the war of the narratives, and the parties to the conflict, after the war's end, will make their narrative of the war's outcome. Therefore, we must be fully prepared for the war of the narratives.

Seyyed Mohammad Hosseini, senior expert of the IPIS

 (The opinions expressed are those of the authors and do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of the IPIS)

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