The Silent War in the Taiwan Strait: Applying Sun Tzu’s The Art of War to the People’s Republic of China’s Strategy
Drawing on the perspectives of Sun Tzu in The Art of War[1] this report analyzes the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) strategy regarding Taiwan as a contemporary case study of victory without direct warfare.
Executive Summary
Drawing on the perspectives of Sun Tzu in The Art of War[1], this report analyzes the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) strategy regarding Taiwan as a contemporary case study of "victory without direct warfare." Concepts such as strategic deception, gradual erosion, patient timing, and exploiting enemy chaos are systematically observable in Beijing’s policies—including the gradual economic and military blockade, cognitive warfare, and the diplomatic isolation of Taiwan. Conversely, the United States and its allies, despite their relative military superiority (similar to the dynamic with Iran), are trapped in high costs, strategic uncertainty, and public opinion constraints. It appears that the future of this confrontation will be determined not in the realm of classic combat, but in the space of perception, time management, and strategic patience.
In Sun Tzu’s thought, the highest form of victory is achieved without engaging in battle: "Supreme excellence consists in breaking the enemy's resistance without fighting"[2]. Today, in the Taiwan Strait, the PRC has sought to implement this doctrine by utilizing modern tools such as economic blockade and, more importantly, time management. For Beijing, the policy of "One China"[3]holds the status of a vital and non-negotiable principle. However, contrary to the common perception of some who emphasize military attack, China’s current strategy regarding Taiwan appears designed around "smart erosion and perception management." The ultimate goal is to bring Taiwan to a point where it neither has the capability nor the desire to declare independence. This report examines the application of seven key principles of Sun Tzu in Beijing’s policy and analyzes the strengths and weaknesses of each of the three main actors—China, Taiwan, and the United States.
One. Strategic Deception: Displaying Inability Amidst Capability
Sun Tzu states, "All warfare is based on deception. When able to attack, we must seem unable...[4] " China applies this principle with particular subtlety. Beijing officially emphasizes the priority of a "peaceful solution," while simultaneously conducting annual blockade-style exercises around Taiwan, having military aircraft cross the median line of the strait, and showcasing its advancements in hypersonic missile technology. This duality between action and declaration constitutes a calculated form of deception, ensuring that Taiwan and the United States remain uncertain about the precise location of China's "red lines." Creating ambiguity regarding the timing and nature of a military response paralyzes Washington’s strategists, achieving the objective Sun Tzu recommended: "In battle, use confusion to the enemy's advantage."
Two. Gradual Erosion: The Quiet Shift of Status Quo Boundaries
China, adopting a step-by-step approach, gradually shifts the boundaries of the "status quo" in its favor. This strategy can be observed across three layers:
Economic: Since 2010, the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) has linked the trade relations of China and Taiwan. Currently, approximately 40% of Taiwan’s exports are destined for China. Beijing can gradually leverage this dependency as a pressure tool, increasing Taiwan’s strategic dependence without triggering a sudden shock.
Diplomatic: Over the past decade, at least ten countries have shifted their official diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to China, leaving only eleven nations that currently recognize Taiwan. By implementing the principle of "breaking the enemy's alliances after defeating their plans"[5], China has severely constrained Taiwan’s diplomatic space.
Military: The number of reconnaissance flights and naval exercises around Taiwan increases annually, yet each is designed within a framework that prevents a direct response from the United States. Red lines are being shifted inch by inch, to the point where returning to the status quo ante 2010 has become impossible for Taiwan—even without a single shot being fired.
Three. Cognitive Warfare: Managing Perception and Inducing Despair Regarding Independence
Sun Tzu advises using the enemy’s chaos on the battlefield and sowing discontent among their people. Beijing’s strategy appears to be anchored in inducing a sense of despair regarding the feasibility of independence. Chinese state media and social platforms such as WeChat and TikTok convey a repetitive yet effective message to Taiwanese society: "The United States will not defend you; war is unwinnable; the cost of independence is the destruction of infrastructure and a decline in living standards." This continuous, albeit quiet, psychological operation has had a significant impact on public opinion in Taiwan. According to reliable polls, while only 15% of Taiwanese identified as "Chinese" in 2000, today, despite rising tensions, over 60% oppose immediate declaration of independence. This is not necessarily due to a positive shift in identity toward China, but rather a realistic understanding of the exorbitant costs involved. This represents the "victory through perception management" that Sun Tzu describes as attacking the enemy’s mind before attacking their soldiers.
Four. Strategic Timing: Chinese Patience Versus American Haste
"Whoever waits for the enemy to come to them has exhausted their strength"; this view of Sun Tzu finds a different interpretation in China’s contemporary strategy: whoever waits for the enemy to weaken themselves renders war unnecessary.
Beijing consciously pursues a "long game." The Chinese Navy doubled in size between 2010 and 2020, while the US fleet is facing aging and degradation. China’s Gross Domestic Product ($19 trillion) has now reached nearly 77% of the US economy, compared to just 12% in 2000. With each passing year, the balance of power shifts in China’s favor. The United States is well aware that any delay in a resolute response will increase the cost of future military intervention; however, American public opinion, recalling the experiences of the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, shows little desire for new conflicts. China, exploiting the gap between US "military capability" and "political will," seeks to achieve its goals by paralyzing the enemy’s will over time. This is precisely the "balk[ing] the enemy's plans before attacking their soldiers"[6]
Five. Analysis of Strengths and Weaknesses: The China-Taiwan-US Triangle
People’s Republic of China
- Strengths: Strategic patience, Taiwan’s economic dependence on the Chinese market, clear military superiority in the region (particularly in anti-access/area denial capabilities), sovereign unity, and cohesion in decision-making.
- Weaknesses: A relatively negative image in Western public opinion (a significant number of democratic countries empathize with maintaining the status quo in Taiwan), vulnerability regarding global supply chains (Taiwan’s semiconductor industry is vital to China’s economy), and failure in international narrative-building against the Western-American media front.
Taiwan
- Strengths: A modern and well-equipped military, substantial but informal support from the United States, and a advanced economy focused on key technologies.
- Weaknesses: Lack of strategic depth (a 200-kilometer distance from the mainland with a population of 23 million), heavy export dependence on China, and internal divisions between independence supporters and status quo advocates.
United States of America
- Strengths: Extra-regional military power, a network of Asian alliances (Japan, South Korea, Philippines, Australia), and dominance in international media and global narrative-building.
- Weaknesses: Strategic erosion due to past and recent conflicts, domestic public opinion’s reluctance to engage in war with China (the economic cost would far exceed that of Afghanistan and Iraq), and, most importantly, ambiguity regarding operational commitment (the uncertainty of whether the US is willing to enter a full-scale war with China to defend Taiwan serves as a tool for Beijing to exaggerate the doubts of Taiwan’s allies).
From Sun Tzu’s perspective, the United States is repeating the same mistake it made regarding Iran: "Failing to correctly understand the enemy[7]."
Strategic Conclusion: Victory Without War or a Smart Stalemate?
Will China ultimately incorporate Taiwan into its sovereign territory? The most likely scenario appears to be not through a sudden nighttime attack, but via a more Sun Tzu-inspired path: gradual and irreversible integration. This path involves several stages: economic blockade, diplomatic isolation, cognitive warfare to render independence unfeasible, and finally—at a moment when the United States is unable to respond effectively due to another crisis (e.g., in Europe or West Asia)—imposing a "coerced agreement" in which Taiwan accepts high autonomy in domestic affairs but cedes its foreign sovereignty to China.
Sun Tzu states: "The skillful warrior, when he moves, is never confused; when he acts, is never at a loss[8]." Beijing may be practically practicing this idea. However, a strategic risk exists: if China makes an error in its "timing"—for example, if the United States responds earlier than expected, or if a stable regional coalition forms—or even if Taiwan takes a suicidal action such as formally declaring independence, the situation could spiral out of control. Under these conditions, by the end of the current decade, we may witness a Taiwan that has come under Chinese de facto control, not through a major war, but as a result of thousands of small maneuvers, targeted sanctions, and continuous psychological operations.
Mehdi Salami, Expert at the Research and Studies Deputy
(The opinions expressed are those of the authors and do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of the IPIS)
[1] The Art of War
[2] “Supreme excellence consists in breaking the enemy's resistance without fighting.”
[3] One China
[4] “All warfare is based on deception. Hence, when able to attack, we must seem unable; when using our forces, we must seem inactive; when we are near, we must make the enemy believe we are far away; when far away, we must make him believe we are near.”
[5] “The next best is to prevent the junction of the enemy's forces.”
[6] “Thus the highest form of generalship is to balk the enemy's plans.”
[7] “If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.”
[8] "The skillful warrior, when he moves, is never confused; when he acts, is never at a loss."