The Imperative of Welcoming the Stabilizing Regional Pact Between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan

Given the international and regional context the intense and escalating security and economic crises confronting Iran and analyzed from the perspective of Saudi foreign policy the advantages of the Pakistan-Saudi security pact far outweigh its drawbacks for the Islamic Republic of Iran. The reasons are as follows:

Given the international and regional context, the intense and escalating security and economic crises confronting Iran, and analyzed from the perspective of Saudi foreign policy, the advantages of the Pakistan-Saudi security pact far outweigh its drawbacks for the Islamic Republic of Iran. The reasons are as follows:

1. From an international politics perspective: Stability in the Middle East is a direct objective for the US, Russia, Europe, and China. American strategists have consistently emphasized in recent years that the US must shift its primary focus toward China, Russia, and Europe. Consequently, it must reduce its entanglement in the Middle East and enter the competition with China and Russia with a stable Middle East. Trump's perpetual assertion that "by attacking Iran, we succeeded in guaranteeing stability in the Middle East" aligns with this, implying, "I, as the US President, am establishing stability in the Middle East to transition America to its primary mission." Accordingly, the Pakistan-Saudi security pact, by virtue of the stability it fosters, will be supported by the great powers of both the West and the East.

2. From a regional politics perspective: This pact is also stabilizing. There is a near-elite consensus that the balance of power in the Middle East, post-October 7th, has shifted in favor of Israel and against Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey. Now, Turkey and Saudi Arabia also fear Israel's hegemonic ambitions. Based on this, the Pakistan-Saudi security pact can, to some extent, shift the balance of power against Israel.

3. The more security pacts increase among the region's countries, the lower their security dependence on interventionist external powers becomes, and the order of endogenous regionalism (or intra-regionalism) is strengthened. This security pact could serve as the central nucleus for the formation of a "Middle East NATO" in the future.

4. Pakistan's activation in the Middle East increases its levers of action against India. Accordingly, this pact can also be stabilizing for the security equations of the subcontinent. The more actors become involved in the India-Pakistan conflict, the more limited the possibility of their military confrontation becomes.

5. From the perspective of Saudi foreign policy: This pact aligns with the diversification of Saudi foreign policy, its "Look East" pivot, and the reduction of its security dependence on the US. In this pact, Saudi Arabia is pursuing a "Security-for-Economy" model. It provides economic incentives and aid to Pakistan and accepts more Pakistani forces, and in return, extends Pakistan's nuclear umbrella over itself.

6. With this pact, Saudi Arabia wants to increase its bargaining power against Israel (in the event of potentially joining the Abraham Accords), Turkey, and Iran.

7. Israel's attack on Qatar and the subsequent US inaction was one of the greatest boons for the Islamic Republic of Iran. It strengthened Iran's position among Arab countries and eroded America's standing with them. The motivation of regional countries, including Saudi Arabia, for concluding such security pacts should not necessarily be interpreted as countering Iran.

8. After Saudi Arabia, other Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries will likely use this model. They might join this pact or enter into security pacts with other countries (for instance, the possibility of the UAE concluding a security pact with India cannot be overlooked, and likewise for other Gulf states).

9. Perhaps the only danger this pact poses to Iran would be in a potential future war initiated by Israel and the US against Iran. In that scenario, Iran's hand would be hindered in attacking American bases in Saudi Arabia.

10. Iran should not feel threatened by Pakistan. Geopolitical imperatives, geographic determinism, the strategic bond between Iran and Pakistan, the populations (both Shia and Sunni) friendly to the Islamic Republic of Iran, and cultural ties have always acted—and will continue to act—in favor of improving Iran-Pakistan relations.

In conclusion, Iran must welcome this pact and view the proliferation of such security agreements as conducive to regional stability and the strengthening of endogenous regionalism. Should an opportunity arise for our country to join such a pact, it should declare its consent.

Seyyed Mohammad Hosseini, Senior Expert at the Center for Political and International Studies, Ministry of Foreign Affairs
(Responsibility for the content of this article rests with the author and does not reflect the views of the Center for Political and International Studies.)