The World and Fabricated Wars Intensifying Armament Capabilities
The restless and changing world in the third decade of the third millennium is witnessing significant geopolitical and geoeconomic transformations especially in the Eurasian and Middle East regions.
The restless and changing world in the third decade of the third millennium is witnessing significant geopolitical and geoeconomic transformations, especially in the Eurasian and Middle East regions. Amidst the current military and security crises, the war in Ukraine and the ongoing genocide in Gaza have gained particular prominence. These two events have had significant impacts on the political and defense landscape of various countries, particularly in the realm of increased military spending and intensified arms competition.
In response to the war in Ukraine, which began three years ago, European capitals have resolutely committed to increasing their defense spending. This move was largely driven by the pressure from Donald Trump, the former US President, who emphasized the necessity for allies to invest more in military equipment and indicated that aid would be limited for countries not meeting this condition. This stance suggests that Washington is re-evaluating its defense role regarding Europe and is pressuring countries lagging behind the determined financial targets to fulfill their commitments.
Currently, Belgium (1.29%), Italy (1.5%), and Spain (1.24%) are among the countries traditionally ranked lowest in defense spending, but they have now committed significant amounts to reach the 2% of GDP target. Canada, at 1.45%, has also not yet reached this goal. Meanwhile, some key NATO security and defense players like the United Kingdom (2.33%), Germany (2.1%), and France (2.03%) have exceeded this target. However, data indicates that a significant portion of this budget is directed towards reinforcing NATO's eastern flank, particularly the Baltic states and Poland bordering Russia.
Washington is now pushing NATO members to further increase their defense spending, and discussions are underway to set a target higher than 2%. NATO diplomats suggest that an agreement around 3% to 3.5% of GDP for the new target is possible, although the final decision will be made at the leaders' summit in The Hague at the end of June. In this context, Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson stated that the usual defense spending target could vary between 1.5% and 3.5% depending on the regional situation. He also added that continuous discussions are ongoing within NATO regarding setting targets for civil defense, general readiness, and support for Ukraine.
Last year, the 32 NATO members collectively spent a total of $1.303 trillion on defense. This figure not only exceeded predictions but also represents an unprecedented record level of expenditure. Additionally, 22 members successfully reached the target of allocating 2% of their Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to defense.
According to statistics published by this Western military alliance, the total expenditure by members in Europe and Canada reached $468 billion, 38 percent of which was spent on procuring major equipment. The United States alone spent $818 billion in this area.
These figures also indicate that in 2023, the year prior, NATO members spent $200 billion less on defense, signifying a remarkable 19 percent increase last year.
Initial estimates released at the beginning of the year predicted that 23 countries would achieve the 2% target; however, ultimately, 22 countries succeeded. The reason for this discrepancy was Montenegro's failure to reach the determined target.
The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) announced in its latest report that global military expenditure reached an unprecedented $2.7 trillion in 2024. This increase, representing the largest growth since the end of the Cold War, is primarily attributed to ongoing wars and armed conflicts. According to the report, the rise in spending was particularly noticeable in the regions of Europe and the Middle East. This growth marks the tenth consecutive year of increased global defense spending, indicating a high level of geopolitical tensions worldwide. The SIPRI report also emphasizes that over 100 countries increased their defense budgets during this period.
According to the recent report, the European region, including Russia, saw the largest increase in military expenditure, which rose by 17 percent in 2024 to reach $693 billion.
Specifically, in 2024, Russia allocated $149 billion to its military, experiencing a 38 percent increase compared to the previous year and a doubling of its defense budget compared to 2015. Ukraine's military budget, for a country facing Russian aggression, increased by 2.9 percent to $64.7 billion. Although this figure represents only 43 percent of Russia's equivalent resources, Ukraine has the highest military expenditure as a percentage of GDP globally, dedicating 34 percent of its Gross Domestic Product to defense.
Meanwhile, Germany also increased its military spending by 28 percent, reaching $88.5 billion. This increase enabled Germany to surpass India and claim the fourth rank globally. Furthermore, for the first time since German reunification, the country has become the largest defense spender in the Central and Western European region.
The United States, as the world's largest military spender, increased its defense budget by 5.7 percent in 2024. Total US expenditure reached $997 billion, accounting for 37 percent of total global military spending and 66 percent of the combined expenditure of NATO member states.
In the Middle East, military spending also followed an upward trend. Specifically, the SIPRI report shows that the Zionist regime of Israel saw a 65 percent increase in its military expenditure in 2024, reaching $46.5 billion. This represents the largest annual increase for Israel since the Six-Day War in 1967 and is linked to the ongoing war in the Gaza Strip. In contrast, Iran's military budget decreased by 10 percent, reaching $7.9 billion in 2024.
Concurrently, in Asia and Oceania, China holds a dominant presence as the world's second-largest military spender after the United States. The country now accounts for half of the total military expenditure in the region. According to the SIPRI report, China increased its military budget by 7 percent in 2024, bringing it to $314 billion. These expenditures are in line with the country's extensive investment in modernizing its armed forces, expanding cyber warfare capabilities, and strengthening its nuclear arsenal.
In conclusion, we face a world marked by instability and rapid, surprising changes. A portion of this stems from the increasing role of human technical knowledge and technological advancements, while another part is a result of the profiteering by the owners of the arms industry and trade. Consequently, this has strengthened the position of the defense and security sectors within global governance structures. This situation does not portend a future filled with peace and tranquility for humanity and has led to significant resources being allocated to defense sectors instead of being utilized for the welfare and development of various societies.
By: Ali Beman Eghbali Zarch, Head of the Eurasia Studies Group
(The opinions expressed are those of the authors and do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of the IPIS)