Europes €800 Billion Defense Leap: A Reaction to Perceived Washington-Moscow Collusion
The international arena is currently experiencing peculiar and unprecedented conditions. Donald Trumps unpredictable approach has created a global environment full of contradictions and inconsistencies a situation not unlike the complexities of the digital age.
The international arena is currently experiencing peculiar and unprecedented conditions. Donald Trump's unpredictable approach has created a global environment full of contradictions and inconsistencies, a situation not unlike the complexities of the digital age.
Perhaps this turbulent situation has created conditions for regional powers, such as Iran, to navigate damaging challenges by leveraging opportunities.
In such an environment, we are witnessing increased activism by countries and heads of state. This activism often employs unconventional diplomatic methods, such as telephone diplomacy between leaders, active mediation, and so on, and sometimes pursues non-traditional objectives.
The primary focus of this activism lies in several important issues: the Palestine crisis, the Ukraine conflict, developments in West Asia, and the Euro-Atlantic and Eurasian axes. In this context, countries like the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar are playing a prominent role in this activism.
Russia's special operation in Ukraine in February 2022 was the best option for propelling Europe into America's arms from a defense and security perspective, and it saved NATO from brain death. Currently, the will of the leaders in the White House and the Kremlin strengthens the prediction of Europe's return to the idea of security and defense autonomy. The London, Berlin, and Paris triangle is more than ever contemplating a strong European army with a minimum of €800 billion, relying on the new circumstances and the public opinion of the continent. It must be said that providing an assessment in this regard is more dependent on how the Ukraine crisis ends and Russia's return to the stage of reviving and rebuilding relations with the West and Europe. Of course, efforts by both sides to end the conflict through negotiation and dialogue have begun, but their success is conditional on the emergence of political will from the leaders of both sides and a reduction in the maximalist demands of Messrs. Putin and Zelenskyy.
While France is preparing for the second summit of voluntary states for security and peace in Ukraine, negotiations for a ceasefire in Ukraine continue in Riyadh. In these circumstances, according to the Eurobarometer survey conducted by the European Parliament in winter 2025, 66% of European citizens want the European Union to take on a greater role in protecting them from global crises and security threats. This view is strong among young people. However, at the national level, support for a stronger EU role in the defense sector varies from the highest percentage, 87% in Sweden, to the last two countries in terms of percentage, 47% in Romania and 44% in Poland.
Also, structurally, 62% of EU citizens want the European Parliament to play a more important role, and defense and security (36%) and competitiveness (32%) to be the main political priorities at the EU level. At the same time, nine out of ten (89%) EU citizens believe that member states should act more unitedly to face current global challenges. The survey shows that 89% of participating European citizens believe that EU member states should be more united in facing current global challenges. Roberta Metsola, commenting on the release of the Winter 2025 Eurobarometer survey, stated that two-thirds of Europeans want the EU to play a stronger role in ensuring their protection. The President of the European Parliament believes this is a clear call for action that "we will answer. Europe must be stronger so that our citizens feel secure."
Currently, concern about Russia on the continent, especially among medium and small countries, and particularly those closer to the eastern axis, is at its highest possible level. The expectations of EU citizens are changing rapidly in a rapidly changing geopolitical environment, such that defense and security (36%), as well as competitiveness, economy, and industry (32%) are among the priorities that the EU should focus more on to strengthen its position in the world. Following these two sectors are energy independence (27%), food security and agriculture (25%), and education and research (23%), which confirms that economic and security issues are at the forefront of what citizens want the European Parliament to prioritize. Also, 43% stated inflation, rising prices, and the cost of living as their priorities, followed by EU defense and security (31%), combating poverty and social exclusion (31%), and supporting the economy and creating new jobs (29%).
The idea of European defense autonomy has become a controversial issue within the EU since the beginning of the third millennium, mainly due to the weakness of existing structures and the complexity of their roles, as well as America's commitment on the continent, which led to a consensus around the will for the Europeanization of defense and effectively concealed numerous contradictions and disagreements regarding the strategic, military, and institutional aspects of such security. Also, the lack of coordination and the absence of a strategic roadmap among member states regarding the goals and methods of European defense for a long time meant that the institutions created for this purpose were not very effective; therefore, today, European defense is still mainly based on the presence of American forces since the 1950s and nuclear weapons with a deterrent effect on the continent. However, given Trump's approach and his unconventional actions on the international stage during the first three months in the White House, and especially his excessive closeness to the Russian president, this situation, where the U.S. is responsible for defending Europe, seems unbearable to many European leaders, especially the governments of France and Germany, for political, strategic, and economic reasons. This has led to disagreements among EU member states who favor purely European defense or even a European pillar of the North Atlantic alliance, and others who wish to remain under the full protection of NATO.
Ali Beman Eqbali Zarch, Head of the Eurasian Studies Group
(The opinions expressed are those of the authors and do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of the IPIS)