Putin and Trumps Chess Game: From Zelensky to Jolani

Trumps re-entry into the White House has presented the international scene with unusual and astonishing conditions especially for European leaders Zelensky and other global politicians. Amidst these developments Vladimir Putin the President of Russia has capitalized on these shifts and is pursuing a codified project aimed at resolving the war in Ukraine.

Trump's re-entry into the White House has presented the international scene with unusual and astonishing conditions, especially for European leaders, Zelensky, and other global politicians. Amidst these developments, Vladimir Putin, the President of Russia, has capitalized on these shifts and is pursuing a codified project aimed at resolving the war in Ukraine. To this end, Putin convened the country's Security Council before holding a phone call with Trump to conduct a comprehensive review of the dialogue with the US President. Consequently, in a 90-minute phone call last week, the two sides agreed to initiate negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. According to Kremlin officials, the first official dialogue between the two leaders took place on February 12, 2025, lasting approximately one and a half hours. In this call, Putin and Trump discussed bilateral relations and the state of the war in Ukraine, after which they issued directives to form working groups for negotiations aimed at a peaceful resolution of the conflict. This conversation occurred exactly three years after Putin's dialogue with Joe Biden, the former US President, which took place two weeks before the onset of the war. Following this call, senior representatives from the United States, Russia, and Ukraine engaged in meetings and discussions at various levels in Europe and Saudi Arabia.

In the new circumstances, the most significant concern pertains to Europe and Ukraine, who are not involved in the initial stages of war-ending negotiations. European officials fear that Trump, after the war concludes, will compel Europe to unilaterally guarantee Ukraine's security and reconstruction and deploy forces to the conflict zone to ensure adherence to a peace agreement—a situation that has led the Americans to disregard a role for Europe in crucial geopolitical issues related to the war. In this regard, European Union officials believe this will be a true test of unity, as Trump perceives Europe through the lens of financial resources. However, six European countries, including Germany, France, and Britain, have declared their readiness to increase their support for Ukraine, adding that they are committed to defending "the country's independence, sovereignty, and territorial integrity against Russia's war of aggression." The joint statement, which also includes the European Commission, noted that European officials intend to discuss next steps with American allies, emphasizing that Ukraine and Europe must be involved in any negotiation.

Europe, in this new phase, faces internal challenges and pro-Russian stances from some countries. The strategy of European leaders to circumvent Hungary's veto is being coordinated by the EU's High Representative for Foreign Affairs, the former Prime Minister of Estonia, Kaja Kallas, with the goal extending beyond previous European commitments to military aid. Diplomats emphasized that, given the opposition from some countries, particularly Hungary, these aid packages, still under negotiation, are likely to take the form of joint contributions from individual member states rather than a formal European Union package. These negotiations are taking place as EU officials and leaders prepare for a group visit to Kyiv on the third anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. While the heads of key EU institutions and leaders from Spain and Northern and Baltic countries prepare to travel to Kyiv, they will be in close contact with Emmanuel Macron, the President of France, and Keir Starmer, the British Prime Minister, who are traveling to Washington to meet with Trump. Macron's trip will be an opportunity for him to share the results of a week of consultations with other allies on Ukraine and attempt to better understand the Trump administration’s position.

Kremlin diplomacy has also focused on Syrian developments, with Mr. Putin holding a phone conversation with Jolani, resulting in movements in Damascus-Kremlin relations, including the stabilization of Russian bases in Syria in exchange for financial aid, especially cash. In this context, Mohammadreza Raouf Sheibani, the Special Representative of Iran's Foreign Minister for Syrian Affairs, in a trip to Moscow, met with Lavrentiev, the Special Representative of the President of the Russian Federation for the Middle East and African Countries, and Mikhail Bogdanov, the Deputy Foreign Minister of this country, to consult on the latest developments in the West Asia region, particularly Syria. In this meeting, both sides, while emphasizing their unwavering respect and commitment to the unity, sovereignty, and territorial integrity of Syria, underscored the importance of international efforts towards establishing stability in the country based on the aforementioned principle.

The parties also reiterated their belief that Syria's internal issues must be resolved by the Syrian parties themselves through inclusive dialogues and with the participation of all political, ethnic, and religious groups.

Overall, Trump, with a maximalist approach, is pursuing excessive demands from the Ukraine triangle (access to rare minerals), Europe (increased military spending), and Russia (compromise on important global and West Asian issues, China, etc.). However, achieving a comprehensive solution to the Ukraine crisis without alleviating concerns, securing the consent, and involving the Green Continent is not feasible, and undoubtedly, an imposed peace will be fragile, and Europe will continue sanctions and economic pressure on Russia—something that is not particularly pleasing to Moscow. Undoubtedly, as predicted from the first anniversary of this conflict, the fate of such enigmatic conflicts is determined at the tables of major powers by defining and setting the victims, and among the victims, Ukraine is the main course, and we must be patient to identify the next victims.

Ali Beman Eghbali Zarch, Head of Eurasia Group

(The opinions expressed are those of the authors and do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of the IPIS)