Trumps Stance on NATO and Member States Defense Budgets

The re-election of Donald Trump as President of the United States has solidified speculations about increased pressure on the NATO alliance into reality. He recently declared at a press conference in Florida that he would demand NATO member states to increase their defense budgets to 5 percent of their Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

The re-election of Donald Trump as President of the United States has solidified speculations about increased pressure on the NATO alliance into reality. He recently declared at a press conference in Florida that he would demand NATO member states to increase their defense budgets to 5 percent of their Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Prior to this, Mark Rutte, the Secretary General of NATO, had anticipated that with Trump's return to power, pressure on NATO would intensify once again. During his election campaign, Trump had stated that if victorious, he would strive to ensure NATO members allocate 3 percent of their GDP to defense budgets. However, in his new remarks, he has demanded a 5 percent defense budget allocation, which appears to be an unattainable figure and is likely intended more to create psychological pressure on NATO's European partners.

Between 2017 and 2021, Trump consistently emphasized the allocation of 2 percent of GDP by members for defense expenditures, which led most countries to meet this figure under increased pressure. In 2024, Croatia, Portugal, Italy, Canada, Belgium, Luxembourg, Slovenia, and Spain allocated less than 2 percent of their GDP to defense, but the other 23 NATO members reached figures above 2 percent. Percentage-wise, Poland currently leads with a defense budget of 4.12% of its GDP. Interestingly, while Trump demands a 5 percent share, his own country, ranking second after Poland, has allocated 3.43%, indicating that his recent emphasis is more of a bluff and an exertion of psychological pressure. Simultaneously, in quantitative terms, the United States currently accounts for approximately two-thirds of the total defense budget of NATO members. According to the then-Secretary General of NATO, in 2024, European NATO member countries spent $380 billion on defense. The US defense budget is $967 billion, which constitutes 3.43% of the $28.7 trillion US economy. Quantitatively, after the US, Germany, with $97.7 billion, the UK with $82.1 billion, France with $64.3 billion, and Poland with $34.9 billion in defense budget allocation, rank next in order. Overall, figures within the NATO alliance are increasing, but the US President's expectations do not align with on-the-ground realities.

Although Europe has continuously increased its defense budget over the past eleven years, it has consistently suffered from the lack of an independent European defense capability. Between 2014 and 2024, the combined defense budget of Europe and Canada increased from $250 billion to $430 billion, but Europe remains dependent on the US in defense matters within the NATO framework, and the dream of an independent European defense remains very distant.

NATO officials continue to strive to strengthen the organization's relations with the European Union, and regular meetings between the two entities are consistently held. On February 3, 2025, Mr. Mark Rutte, the Secretary General of NATO, participated in an informal meeting of EU leaders in Brussels to discuss European defense. In this gathering, he emphasized the importance of cooperation and partnership between NATO and the European Union and highlighted the transatlantic bond as the foundation of European security. Mr. Rutte outlined the common priorities of NATO and the European Union at this meeting and called for more agile and increased cooperation between the two institutions in the face of growing common security challenges. Rutte deemed support for Ukraine vital and added that Europe should increase its military support for this country. He stated, "We must commit to the reconstruction and revitalization of Ukraine when the time comes." The NATO Secretary General also addressed how the European Union can contribute to maintaining and enhancing NATO's deterrence and defense by increasing investment levels, easing regulations, countering the fragmentation of industrial sectors, and facilitating military mobility. He said, "To succeed in protecting Europe, the European Union and NATO must act in concert and complement each other."

Mark Rutte also emphasized the necessity of aligning "NATO's strategic priorities" with the European Union's at a gathering of the College of Commissioners of the European Union hosted by Ms. Von der Leyen on January 31, 2025.  Highlighting the shared values and interests of NATO and the European Union, and pointing to the increase in security threats worldwide, he assessed the exploitation of the collective power of NATO and the European Union as important.

Although the issue of independent European defense is far from reality, continuous pressure from Trump may lead to an increase in the defense budgets of European NATO member states. Simultaneously, as French President Emmanuel Macron recently stated, Trump's approach to Europe itself leads to greater unity among these countries and will create more cohesion among European Union members in various commercial, economic, and even defense areas.

Reza Haghighi, Expert at the Center for Political and International Studies

 (The opinions expressed are those of the authors and do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of the IPIS)