Trumps Combined Threats: From Maneuvering in Mexico and Canada to Instilling Concern in Copenhagen and the Green Continent
The re-establishment of Donald Trump in the White House has ushered in new and significant transformations onto the international stage.
The re-establishment of Donald Trump in the White House has ushered in new and significant transformations onto the international stage. The White House’s declarative and threat-based approach has compelled leaders of various nations, from Russia to Denmark and Canada, among others, to engage in all-out efforts to devise solutions for navigating Trump's political maneuvering and to transcend this sensitive historical juncture. In line with this, Melanie Joly, Canada's Minister of Foreign Affairs, recently announced her intention to present a coordinated response to Donald Trump’s tariff threats against Mexico, Britain, and the European Union, prior to traveling to Washington with the aim of de-escalating tensions after returning to the House of Commons.
The US President, throughout his election campaigns, heavily employed the rhetoric of increasing customs duties on products from certain countries, including those considered the closest allies of the United States, to gain leverage in various dossiers. Melanie Joly told reporters in Ottawa that she has already been in contact with her Mexican counterpart and will be speaking with European officials. According to the head of Canadian diplomacy, discussions aimed at formulating potential differentiated responses to customs duties have taken place from London to the capitals of the European Union. However, the objective is to execute this in a manner that avoids tariffs, a feat they believe is achievable. From the context of the Canadian Foreign Minister's statements, it can be assessed that Ottawa’s focus is on negotiation, as they believe diplomacy can be effective and lead to adjustments in Trump’s decisions. Of course, border control and the prevention of human and drug trafficking also remain challenging issues in the US-Mexico-Canada triangle.
The reality is that on the Green Continent (Europe), the challenges extend beyond tariffs. Alongside the war in Ukraine, the issue of Greenland has become a significant priority in European diplomacy. In this regard, Lars Løkke Rasmussen, the Foreign Minister of Denmark, despite the insistence of the new US President Donald Trump on the annexation of Greenland by the United States, has rejected this claim regarding the autonomous territory of the Scandinavian Kingdom, stating, “Trump will not have Greenland.” He further emphasized, “Greenland is Greenland, and the people of Greenland are protected under international law, and that is why I have repeatedly reiterated that ultimately it is Greenland that determines Greenland's status.” Furthermore, Mette Frederiksen, the Prime Minister of Denmark, recently met with key European leaders to safeguard Greenland from Donald Trump's demands. The German Chancellor, after meeting with Frederiksen, stated that borders cannot be changed by force. Evidence and reactions from Copenhagen officials to Trump's positions and statements regarding Greenland, which has been a territory of Denmark since 1953, and the possibility of seizing this land, even by coercive force, indicate a kind of heightened fear.
In a single day, Frederiksen engaged in intensive diplomacy, meeting with Olaf Scholz, the German Chancellor, in Berlin, Emmanuel Macron, the French President, in Paris, and Mark Rutte, the Secretary-General of NATO, in Brussels. It must be acknowledged that this leader's journey signifies the escalating level of concern in Copenhagen regarding Trump's threats against Greenland, which, according to Trump, is vital for US security in the Arctic and harbors vast mineral wealth. Frederiksen also met with other Northern European leaders last week, stating, "We are part of a strong European community that together can face the challenges ahead because we have faced great challenges before. European cooperation has proven its value in managing a series of crises in recent years." The critical reality is that Europe is in a serious state of new warfare and geopolitical shifts, which could primarily benefit Russia and alter the equations in the Ukraine war. However, there is still no precise and convincing analysis regarding the fundamental reasons for this request and Trump's stance. The important question remains: how can Trump, who opposes war and advises Putin towards peace, contemplate the occupation of Greenland?! In a press conference, none of the European leaders directly referenced the new US President or the large island situated in the Arctic. However, after discussing the war in Ukraine, Olaf Scholz emphasized that borders should not be moved by force. He added, "Denmark and Germany are close friends and share a very similar view of the world." Mette Frederiksen, the Danish Prime Minister, also declared that our continent is founded on the idea that cooperation, rather than confrontation, leads to peace, progress, and prosperity.
Trump first proposed the idea of the United States buying Greenland during his first term as President, which Frederiksen vehemently rejected. Last week, the Danish government decided to allocate approximately 2 billion euros, including funds for purchasing three new Arctic vessels, additional long-range drones, and strengthening satellite capabilities.
It appears that European leaders, within their national and institutional capacities, are making all-out efforts to coordinate and de-escalate tensions with the new ruling team in the White House. Consequently, in the initial telephone conversation between Ms. Kaja Kallas, the EU’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs, and Marco Rubio, the US Secretary of State, the European Union and the United States agreed on the necessity of maintaining maximum pressure on Russia. The two senior diplomats also discussed the need for cooperation to achieve lasting peace in Ukraine. This was the first contact between Kaja Kallas and Marco Rubio following Donald Trump's repeated threats regarding trade and defense. The new US President recently announced that European countries will be subject to customs tariffs, stating that this is the only way to ensure fair treatment for the United States. He also called on Europeans to increase their defense spending to five percent of their GDP.
Overall, in the current international climate, political leaders of various powers and countries are making significant efforts to maximize benefits from Trump's ambitions and self-serving, trade-centric approach. By employing political skill and focusing on a negotiation and concession-exchange model, they aim to prevent potential harm and irreparable damages from a power struggle with the United States. At this historical juncture, our country, too, can achieve considerable success by designing a diplomatic strategy for resolving disputes, particularly with Europe and even the United States, and by participating in peace and stability and sharing benefits in the Eurasian axis, with the goal of strengthening interactions with neighboring countries and the surrounding region.
Ali Beman Eghbali Zarch – Senior Expert in Eurasia
(The opinions expressed are those of the authors and do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of the IPIS)