Iran and the Trump Challenge
With the commencement of Donald Trumps presidency on January 20 2025 nations across the globe from both East and West recognized the imperative to adjust their foreign policies. Mirroring his first term Trump’s policies were not confined to countries adversarial to the United States rather they impacted European nations particularly Denmark as well as Canada China Mexico Panama and numerous others. From a political and international perspective the significant aspect of Trump’s actions during his second presidential term lies in his approach to international challenges.
With the commencement of Donald Trump's presidency on January 20, 2025, nations across the globe, from both East and West, recognized the imperative to adjust their foreign policies. Mirroring his first term, Trump’s policies were not confined to countries adversarial to the United States; rather, they impacted European nations, particularly Denmark, as well as Canada, China, Mexico, Panama, and numerous others. From a political and international perspective, the significant aspect of Trump’s actions during his second presidential term lies in his approach to international challenges. A distinctive characteristic of Trump is his method of pursuing objectives. When encountering any nation or region he perceives as problematic, he initially makes a grand assertion to shock public opinion and display his authority. Subsequently, in negotiations, he presents his actual goal and proposal, which is considerably smaller than his initial claim. For instance, a primary concern for Trump was China’s expanding influence in Central and South America through the Belt and Road Initiative. He endeavored to dissuade regional countries from this project. This objective began with a significant claim of reclaiming ownership of the Panama Canal but ultimately evolved into a joint deal. Leveraging this threat and political and economic pressures, he successfully compelled Panama to terminate its collaborations with China.
This approach of Trump has extended to Gaza as well. The seemingly unreasonable plan of transferring the people of Gaza to other countries appears to be a major bluff by the Trump administration, designed to shock public opinion in the Palestinian territories and other nations, thus preparing them to accept subsequent proposals.
However, for the Islamic Republic of Iran, the critical aspect is to discern the objectives and tactics of the US administration and, subsequently, to capitalize on regional and international conditions and opportunities that have arisen, and continue to develop, due to Trump’s approaches.
In this regard, Iranian decision-makers and diplomats must recognize that Iran is not exempt from the policies and overall approach of the Trump administration. Consequently, Iran should anticipate excessive demands from him. In recent days, we have witnessed the resurgence of the "maximum pressure policy" from the US government, along with speculations about Trump's diverse and excessive demands from Iran.
Therefore, Iranian diplomats, aware of Trump's general disposition and approach, must understand that such demands are part of his initial maximalist policy, intended to pave the way for securing lesser demands in subsequent stages. It is expected from the foreign policy apparatus and seasoned diplomats of the country not to be deterred at this juncture and to undertake the necessary actions to secure national interests and mitigate crisis and tension for Iran. Given the unfavorable economic situation of the country, it is imperative for Iranian diplomats to pursue diverse informal negotiations through various channels and ultimately find pathways to an honorable peace and agreement with the United States and other JCPOA member countries.
Another significant issue is recognizing and optimally utilizing the regional and international opportunities created by Trump's approaches. Currently, due to Trump’s stances regarding the trade war with China, Canada, and Mexico, the acquisition of Greenland, reduced aid to NATO, a changed approach to Ukraine, and inhumane positions on the forced displacement of the people of Gaza, European and Arab countries, as well as China, are also dissatisfied with the Trump administration.
Therefore, a favorable environment has emerged for Iran to enhance its position through bargaining and negotiation with these countries and to engage with the US from a stronger stance. Especially considering the disagreement that the "displacement of the people of Gaza" theory has created between the US and Israel with Saudi Arabia, conditions are ripe for Iran to conduct numerous dialogues and consultations with the Arab countries of the Persian Gulf region and to earnestly pursue a "plan of amity" with these countries. Success in this area will undoubtedly influence Iran's position in future negotiations with the West, dispelling the notion that Iran is in a weak position and that numerous issues can be imposed upon it.
While the aforementioned points can assist the nation’s decision-makers and diplomats in adopting a prudent policy, ultimately, realism, an accurate understanding of the conditions and domestic and international capacities and constraints, and considering the country's expediency alongside Iran’s dignity and authority, remain fundamental principles in confronting the Trump administration and the current perilous circumstances.
Mohammad Mehdi Mazaheri, University Professor
(The opinions expressed are those of the authors and do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of the IPIS)