Trumps Unilateralism and the Strategic Thinking of Xi Jinping and Putin

Trumps presence in the White House signifies fundamental changes in the international and regional arena and the nature of interactions between major powers especially in the triangle of the US China and Russia. Trumps success in achieving a ceasefire in Gaza and the beginning of other changes have created new political momentum in Beijing and Moscow

Trump's presence in the White House signifies fundamental changes in the international and regional arena and the nature of interactions between major powers, especially in the triangle of the US, China, and Russia. Trump's success in achieving a ceasefire in Gaza and the beginning of other changes have created new political momentum in Beijing and Moscow, as the Kremlin is pursuing the vital priority of success in the Ukraine war, and the Chinese leader, in addition to economic issues, has the fundamental priority of Taiwan in mind. Xi Jinping, the President of China, shortly after Donald Trump's inauguration, spoke with his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, during which the leader of Beijing announced his readiness to elevate Russia-China relations to new heights.

China has deepened its relations with Russia since the start of the Kremlin's all-out war in Ukraine and has become Moscow's main source of dual-use goods that strengthen Russia's defense industry. However, Beijing has denied allegations of supporting Russia's military efforts. In his call with Putin, Xi added that China is ready to stand alongside Russia to deal with external uncertainties and maintain the stability and flexibility of China-Russia relations, as well as the well-being of the two countries, international justice and equality. It is worth mentioning that currently China is Russia's largest trading partner, and bilateral cooperation between Beijing and Moscow is gradually expanding, and the two countries' 220 billion dollar joint trade is increasing.

The Russian president in this conversation called China Russia's main trading partner because the Yellow Dragon is the largest consumer of Russia's energy resources, and Russia ranks first in terms of oil exports to China. Putin also said that five years ago, together with you, we launched the Siberia gas pipeline, and today Russia has won the first place in terms of natural gas supply to China. The two leaders' conversation took place shortly after the inauguration of Donald Trump, the US President. Since February 2022, Putin has visited China twice, the first time just a few days before the start of the all-out invasion of Ukraine and again in May 2024. Xi visited Russia in March 2023. Beijing has also positioned itself as a mediator between Russia and Ukraine and has sent its envoy, Li Hui, to Europe in several rounds of diplomacy.

It seems that the Kremlin's biggest concern is the intensification of sanctions, as after the new US sanctions against Russian oil trade on January 10, Russian crude oil exports by sea last week saw the biggest decline in the past two months. According to analyzed data of Russian crude oil exports in a four-week period, last week showed a level below three million barrels per day. After the imposition of the latest sanctions, disruptions have been created in Russian crude oil exports, and buyers are looking for other sources of fuel. At the same time, India announced that sanctioned ships whose delivery contracts were concluded until January 10 can unload the cargo at their ports until March 12, when the sanctions period ends. Moscow's export value in the week ending January 19 fell to 1.38 billion dollars. Russian crude oil exports by sea to Europe have stopped, and the export flow to Bulgaria also ended at the end of 2023. Also, Moscow lost about 500,000 barrels per day of exports after stopping exports to Poland and Germany in early 2023.

Currently, Trump's priority is to end the war in Ukraine, a war that he has called foolish and said that if he were in the White House, this war would not have started. Donald Trump adds that Putin is destroying Russia and this is not the way to run a country. In response to Trump's statements, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov last Tuesday criticized the methods announced by Donald Trump, the new US President, to promote US interests in the world, saying that the change of power in Washington does not at all mean a change in US interests in foreign policy. In a press conference in which he was asked about Trump's first decrees and programs, Sergei Lavrov said that this indicates the methods that President Trump and his administration are planning to promote the interests of the United States on the international stage. Lavrov also, in response to a question about Trump's decision to withdraw the US from international organizations and treaties and the new US president's territorial claims against Greenland and Panama, noted that the interests lie in always being stronger than any competitor. Regarding the Panama Canal, he added that Russia once again emphasizes its commitment to neutrality in the international legal regime of this territory in the treaty signed between the US and Panama, and Russia expects specific initiatives from Trump to resolve the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and Vladimir Putin, the Russian president, wants to meet with the new US president.

Now, three years after the order to attack Ukraine and 11 years after the entry of Russian forces into the Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea, the parties to this conflict are tired of this conflict, as Trump admits that Russia and Ukraine have lost one million and 700 thousand forces respectively, so it seems that Russia, with the support of Beijing, is willing to negotiate about security guarantees for Ukraine, but the Kremlin's priority in future negotiations with the United States will be to create a new security architecture throughout the Eurasian space, and at the same time, Moscow wants to have an important role in the European security system in the future because it believes that the Western powers in recent years have used Ukraine as a tool to weaken Russia through military aid provided to Kyiv.

Ali Beman Eghbali Zarch, Senior Expert at the Center for Political and International Studies

  (The opinions expressed are those of the authors and do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of the IPIS)