The Position of Iran and the Middle East in the 2025 Republican Strategy Document
Many American experts describe his foreign policy as ambiguous and complex. A look at his statements regarding China and Russia especially the war in Ukraine reveals this ambiguity. However his foreign policy regarding the Middle East is almost clear and transparent and across the wide range of Middle Eastern issues his approach to the Gaza war the Abraham Accords and the Iranian issue is clearer and more transparent than any other issue.
Many American experts describe his foreign policy as ambiguous and complex. A look at his statements regarding China and Russia, especially the war in Ukraine, reveals this ambiguity. However, his foreign policy regarding the Middle East is almost clear and transparent, and across the wide range of Middle Eastern issues, his approach to the Gaza war, the Abraham Accords, and the Iranian issue is clearer and more transparent than any other issue. He has repeatedly confirmed the policies of his first administration towards Iran (intensifying sanctions) and the Arab-Israeli conflict (the Abraham Accords), and his criticisms of the Biden administration are focused on these two issues. In his view, the Gaza war is the result of the abandonment of the Abraham Accords by Biden, and Iran's actions in the region are also the result of the loosening of the sanctions screw by the Biden administration.
One of the documents that clarifies the roadmap of his administration towards the Middle East, and especially Iran, is the "Republican Strategic Document for 2025". This document, which is in fact the party manifesto of the Republicans for 2025, is a 900-page report that was compiled by the Heritage Foundation in 2022 by more than 900 experts. This report evaluates American domestic and foreign policies in bureaucratic, economic, welfare, legal, and environmental dimensions, and while criticizing the approaches of the Biden administration, it offers policy recommendations to the Republican candidate for the 2024 elections. Many American affairs experts refer to this document as the "roadmap of his administration" in 2025.
This document also refers to US Middle East policies, the focus of which is Iran's position as the US's "other" in the Middle East. In other words, the document, based on antagonism against Iran and defining Iran as the US's main enemy in the Middle East, has formulated US Middle East policies. The document, while criticizing the Biden government's foreign policy in the Middle East, especially towards Iran, says: "The Biden government has provided financial aid to US regional allies to contain Iran, which has not secured US security interests."
In another part of the document, the Abraham Accords are mentioned as the most important foreign policy initiative of the first Trump administration. The document states: "The Abraham Accords were designed with the aim of turning Iran into the 'main issue of the Middle East' and removing the Arab-Israeli conflict from the main focus of the region's issues." Accordingly, the document recommends:
1- US aid in the Middle East should serve US security interests. 2- Instead of granting direct financial aid, the US should pursue a policy of strengthening and supporting the private sector and the trade network between Arabs and Israelis. 3- US aid to US allies should be directed towards strengthening the "Abraham Accords." 4- US aid to countries such as Iraq and Lebanon and Palestinian groups, as long as they cooperate directly and indirectly with Iran, should be immediately cut off. 5- US aid should serve to change the pattern of US intervention in the Middle East from "presence" to "influence."
The contents of this document have been previously raised by Trump and his advisors. While confirming the previous threats of Republican officials against Iran, this document contains a strategic warning for the officials and decision-makers of the Islamic Republic that Trump has chosen his strategy towards Iran and will implement it as soon as he enters the White House. What is certain is that the Islamic Republic of Iran cannot use the behavioral pattern towards the Biden government for the Trump government as well. Iran's pattern towards the Biden government was "neither war nor direct negotiation." It is predicted that the structural requirements will push Iran towards the pattern of "both war and direct negotiation," but before the structure of the international system imposes such a pattern with exorbitant costs on Iran, it is better to design a suitable pattern to deal with Trump's threats in order to maintain Iran's honor, ensure maximum national interests and reduce possible threats.
Seyed Mohammad Hosseini, Senior Expert at the Center for Political and International Studies
(The opinions expressed are those of the authors and do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of the IPIS)