Improvisation and Decision-Making in the Absence of Planning and Foresight

(Observations on the Developments in Syria)

(Observations on the Developments in Syria)

A: Elucidation of the Developments in the Levant and Syria

The security and political developments in the Levant were not surprising. In recent years, futurologists have outlined the drivers of future-making in the Levant, the result of which is the current developments in the region.

What were these drivers?

1. The Supremacy of Geopolitics over Geo-economics in the Levant
2. The Rivalry of Great Powers in the Levant
3. The Rivalry of Regional Powers
4. The Supremacy of Tension-Creating Dynamics over Tension-Reducing Dynamics
5. The Active Palestinian Issue
6. The Kurdish Issue
7. The Aggressive Nature of Turkey's Foreign Policy
8. The Aggressive Nature and Expansionism of Israel
9. The Weakened Syrian State (failed State) Backed by Russian Military Forces
10. Hezbollah's Introversion Following the Beirut Port Explosion
11. Reduced Iranian Support for Hezbollah Following Increased Sanctions
12. The Erosion of Russia's Power in the War in Ukraine

The twelve drivers mentioned above needed a spark to set off synergistic developments. This spark was the Al-Aqsa Storm Operation, which, like the attack on Pearl Harbor and September 11, unleashed the future-making drivers. Therefore, the recent developments in the Levant should be sought within the context of these drivers.

B: Today's Observation

Although there are many uncertainties on the scene of the Levant now, and uncertainties are inherently full of threats and opportunities, "certain elements" can be observed in this scene.

What are the certain elements in the Levant?

1. Turkey, the United States, Israel, and Saudi Arabia are the main players in the Levant region.
2. Lebanon, Jordan, the Palestinian Authority, and the new Syrian government are also bandwagoners of the above four powers.
3. Israel's project is the "West Bankization" of its surrounding environment. The security structure of Gaza is now like the West Bank, and Hamas has agreed with Mahmoud Abbas that after the ceasefire, the administration of Gaza will be handed over to the Palestinian Authority. The regime's actions in Syria and the complete occupation of the Golan Heights and the destruction of Syria's military infrastructure are also the West Bankization of Syria. The siege of Hezbollah in Lebanon by the Lebanese army and UN forces is also in this direction.
4. Syria has vital strategic value for Turkey and will maintain its influence in Syria with all its might.
5. The United States, Turkey, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Lebanon, and Iraq are strongly opposed to instability in Syria and are helping to stabilize the situation inside Syria in order to secure their interests in the light of a contained and weakened Syria.
6. Although the claimants of power in Syria have deep differences with each other, so far no sign of a serious power struggle in Syria has been found.
7. Al-Jolani has so far had relatively rational positions. Tahrir al-Sham is seeking stability and peace in Syria.
8. The United States and Turkey have prevented the confrontation of Syrian Kurds with Tahrir al-Sham.
9. Tahrir al-Sham considers Iran and Hezbollah its main enemies and Israel its secondary enemy. However, they are cautious in making comments about Iran and Hezbollah.
10. Contrary to predictions, so far the stabilizing factors in Syria have outweighed the destabilizing factors.

Seyed Mohammad Hosseini, Senior Expert at the Center for Political and International Studies

 (The opinions expressed are those of the authors and do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of the IPIS)