Trump An Unpredictable Person in an Uncertain World in 2025

We are really living in an uncertain world. It was very difficult to predict the recent developments in South Korea and Syria. Uncertainty and unpredictability of events have intensified for the following main reasons:

 We are really living in an uncertain world. It was very difficult to predict the recent developments in South Korea and Syria. Uncertainty and unpredictability of events have intensified for the following main reasons:

• The world and WANA (West Asia and North Africa) are getting more and more interconnected, and consequently, more difficult to understand.
• The number of players and forces of change are increasing at national, regional and global levels.
• Unresolved issues have accumulated in WANA and the number of important political/security issues are increasing.
• A multipolar world with more global competition among great powers is less predictable.
• The access to more and more information and misinformation increase. Access to more information may help predictability, however the problem is with disinformation and misinformation.  

Now we have an unpredictable person as the US president that adds to uncertainty.

America First in 2025

During the past one and a half year I participated in many roundtables and meetings all around the world.  Almost all those who I met were waiting for the US elections. Now Trump is back. What does his election mean for the World and WANA in 2025?

In the recent US election nationalists defeated globalists. It was not between democrats and republicans. Trump is economically protectionist; politically, transactional; and militarily, nationalist.  MAGA means that the main priorities of the new administration are domestic; inflation, economic competition, infrastructures, education, science and technology,… That provides many opportunities for the reset of the world.

The first opportunity is that Trump is not a globalist and interventionist, like Bush, Obama and even Biden. Though the US system has got used to intervention and will continue to do its’ job around the world. However, less interventionist approach by the president may provide more opportunities for peace. The us concentration on domestic issues provides an opportunity for others to concentrate on solving their own domestic challenges. Four years’ latter globalists/interventionists may come back with more ambitions.

As he has said and done, Trump may weaponize trade and dollar more in 2025 to gain more concessions from rivals and more control over partners. However, Tariffs and sanctions will push all countries to diversify their economic relations.  

The trend will provide more opportunity for BRICS+. Trump warned BRICS countries against pushing forward for a new currency. It means that BRICS+ is on a right track and the US has received the message from new world order. Weaponization of economic tools makes diversification of economic tools more necessary. For that reason, BRICS will continue its efforts to promote economic multilateralism. More diversification in economics will undermine the US economic hegemony and dollar hegemony that benefits global south.

With more Tariffs and sanctions, business have two options: to diversify or to die.  The US will not be able to weaponize dollar and increase tariffs and sanctions at the same time. The more US increase tariffs, the more countries and companies are forced to neglect the US sanctions and look for new markets.

Furthermore, Trump maybe an opportunity for peace in Ukraine. It is widely expected that president Trump push Ukraine toward a peace deal with Russia in 2025. Peace process between Ukraine and Russia, like the previous war trend, will be consequential and improve energy security and food security in 2025 and 2026. 

West Asia in 2025

Like 2023-4 we still witness two contradictory trends in West Asia and North Africa (WANA): a trend toward more peace and prosperity and the other  that drags the region towards more conflicts. Both trends will remain with us during the next year and beyond.

More US concentration on domestic issues may provide opportunities for peace in WANA, and decrease the US interventions in different parts of the world. Iran and Russia are getting less interested in geopolitical competitions, while Turkey, Israel and EU are trying to increase their roles more.

Turkey removed Syrian burden from Iran and Russia shoulders and now it has to carry it for a long time and a long way.  Syrian developments are consequential for the whole region; It makes no different which direction it takes. Now the main players in Syria are Turkey, the US, Kurds, Islamic groups, Israel and GCC countries. They had two things in common: opposition to Asad and Iran. Iran and Asad are  no longer there. What they have in common?

The importance of economic priorities has increased a lot for many players in the region including Iran, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iraq, Egypt… than geopolitics.  It may lead to more economic cooperation and less competition among them.  Too much concentration on geopolitics has not been helpful for anyone. Geopolitical power without economic and technological power has not been sustainable. For that reason, peace and diplomatic efforts may increase in 2025 and negotiations may happen more. But what they will deliver?

While well wishes and good intentions could be found everywhere, however, there are spoiling forces who do not benefit from peace and try to derail the US policy and push for more confrontation in Eastern Europe and WANA. Some in the US are pushing Washington to separate Iran, Russia and China from each other and target them one by one. This game is familiar enough and will just waste more time and energy in Washington and WANA. The narrative that has been developed in the US and EU about Iran for a long time, is good for marketing weapons. Still, spoilers push the region and the world into a different direction.  If the US is pushed for more confrontation, we may have another decade of wars and conflicts in WANA, East Europe,….  

Nabi Sanboli, a senior expert at the Institute for Political and International Studies

(The opinions expressed are those of the authors and do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of the IPIS)