888 Days of Destruction in the Ukrainian War - Napoleons Luck of Mediators
The fierce fighting continues in the Donetsk region and parts of Kharkiv and Kupiansk Ukraine but the situation prevailing on the battlefield indicates the continuation of the process of erosion and the rule of fatigue and despair among the military forces. Practically the parties to the conflict conclude that determining the fate of the war in the geography of the war is very difficult or perhaps impossible.
The fierce fighting continues in the Donetsk region, and parts of Kharkiv and Kupiansk, Ukraine, but the situation prevailing on the battlefield indicates the continuation of the process of erosion and the rule of fatigue and despair among the military forces. Practically, the parties to the conflict conclude that determining the fate of the war in the geography of the war is very difficult or perhaps impossible. Therefore, in such a situation, Moscow and Kyiv have shown new signs of interest in sitting at the negotiating table and reaching a peaceful solution, and for the first time, Russian authorities have mentioned the Islamic Republic of Iran as a trusted mediator and other prominent mediators, including China, Turkey, and Hungary, have been active as the rotating president of the European Union.
The Russian operation began on February 20, 2014, with military forces infiltrating Crimea, annexing the peninsula, and fueling the separatist war in Donbas, which was temporarily stopped due to the fragile and weak Minsk-2 agreement in 2015, moderated by France and Germany. What we see from February 24, 2022, is just a new stage on a much larger scale than the war between Putin and the world hegemon that began 15 years ago, and it seems that the special operations of Ukraine go on from the threats against the Republic of Moldova and other European countries and the total belligerent approach of the parties to the talk of the nuclear apocalypse and the third world war in a wide geographical area.
In this situation, it is no secret that the war between Russia and Ukraine will help the cohesion of NATO, and the eastern wing of NATO considers its security more than ever dependent on the role of the United States centered on NATO and the leaders' summit on the 75th anniversary of the organization in Washington had another opportunity to evaluate the latest situation in Ukraine and the necessity of strengthening the organization's forces in the peripheral region of the Black Sea. Therefore, the leaders of the NATO countries at this summit emphasized the unity of the alliance countries to adapt the alliance to the new realities as defined in the new strategic concept approved in Madrid, in which Russia is the most important threat to Euro-Atlantic security. Once again, they paid special attention to the political, security, and strategic importance of the Black Sea. Also, in this summit, the hopes of Ukraine to join NATO and receive security guarantees were revived.
According to the announcement of the Ministry of Defense of Russia, significant losses and casualties have been inflicted on Ukraine as follows:
In total, 744 aircraft, 455 helicopters, 13,300 drones, 744 air defense missile systems, 16,700 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 2,580 MLRS-equipped combat vehicles, 10,200 field artillery pieces, etc., have been destroyed during special military operations.
Also, since the beginning of Russia's special military operations in Ukraine, the casualties of combat operations have been more than four hundred and fifty thousand soldiers, which does not include the wounded and foreign mercenaries who were transferred to hospitals in Ukraine and abroad as well as soldiers who were killed as a result of long-range precision weapons attacks in the rear areas. At the same time, according to the Western media, the number of dead Ukrainian soldiers is unpleasant information for the president of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky. The death toll remains President Volodymyr Zelensky's worst-kept secret, although judging by all external data, there is no doubt that the number of dead and wounded has risen sharply since the end of the summer.
On the other side of the war and according to the official announcement of the Ukrainian side, the losses and casualties of the Russian army are as follows:
In total, 363 aircraft, 326 helicopters, 17,900 drones, 903 air defense missile systems, 8,300 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 16,000 MLRS-equipped combat vehicles, 17,000 field artillery and mortar vehicles, 29 warships, 2400 missiles, 21300 military vehicles have been destroyed, and more than 570000 people were killed and wounded.
The fact is that this war started with the optimism of Moscow and Kyiv without considering its devastating consequences. Today, it has become the center of coercion of the Euro-Atlantic axis and Russia. Some powers and countries, such as the United States, England, China, India, Turkey, some Arab countries, etc., have taken advantage of these conditions and continue this process by supplying Russia's sanctioned needs, buying cheap energy, and especially selling weapons to the conflict parties. In this situation, it should be acknowledged that with the erosion of the biggest war of the third millennium, the parties show a clear desire to approach the negotiating table. However, in the current situation, the expectations of both sides are far from reaching a satisfactory solution for both parties. The last word is that both sides of Moscow and Kyiv have followed all the American presidential elections with sensitivity and believe that if the winner of this competition is Trump, it will play an important role in determining the fate and ending the war.
Ali Bemaneqbali Zarch, Manager of the Eurasian Studies Department
(The opinions expressed are those of the authors and do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of the IPIS)