Orban in Kyiv and Moscow Zero - achievement to end the war in Ukraine

While the conflict in Ukraine is approaching its thirtieth month the attrition nature of the war has taken on a serious tone and a decisive event that will cause a fundamental change in the fate of this asymmetric and destructive war will not take place on the battlefield.

 While the conflict in Ukraine is approaching its thirtieth month, the attrition nature of the war has taken on a serious tone, and a decisive event that will cause a fundamental change in the fate of this asymmetric and destructive war will not take place on the battlefield. However, the parties to the conflict report from time to time limited successes in advancing or the fundamental destruction of each other's strategic infrastructures. On the one hand, the Euro-Atlantic axis fully supports Ukraine. On the other hand, the head of the Kremlin has completed the arrangements for the continuation of the war of attrition, and preparations for the continuation of the conflict are being completed, while various countries, including Türkiye, China, and some African countries and Asians, are also looking for their chance to succeed in mediation and achieve a ceasefire between Kyiv and Moscow. Of course, the efforts made so far have not had tangible results, and the main reason lies in the question of whether the parties to the conflict are ready to choose between bad and worse to end the war.

In line with efforts for peace, Viktor Orban, on July 1, 2024, as the Prime Minister of Hungary, who assumed the rotating presidency of the European Union bloc for six months, visited Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Kyiv on a five-day trip. Also, he met and talked with the Russian president in Moscow for a peace mission a few days before the NATO summit in Washington, which his colleagues in the European Union immediately criticized. It was warned that he does not have a representative on behalf of the European Union for talks. In addition, some officials of the Union consider Hungary's presidency over Brussels to be over before its real start, and in their opinion, Orban has not understood his role well. The skepticism of European Union member states (regarding Hungary's presidency of the European Union Council) is justified, and Orban's actions are only in the direction of promoting Budapest's interests. At the same time, he played a key role in forming the Union of Patriots for Europe with other right-wing European nationalists.

Regarding the meeting between Putin and Orban, European Union foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said that Orban in Moscow does not represent the European Union in any way. Also, the Prime Minister of Finland, Petteri Orpo, described the information that was published on the eve of the visit to Moscow as worrying. He wrote in a tweet: His visit shows contempt for the duties of the European Union Presidency and weakening the interests of the European Union. At the same time, Pavel Havlicek, a researcher of the International Affairs Association, believes that Orban's visit is an abuse that occurs in the power vacuum in Brussels and is considered a dangerous weakening of the European common position. Of course, Orban, for his part, has stated that he knows that he does not have a mandate to negotiate on behalf of the European Union. Still, peace cannot be achieved by sitting on an armchair in Brussels because we cannot sit and wait for the war to miraculously end. Of course, Orban's meeting with Zelensky did not achieve any special results. Basically, the two countries had differences of opinion even before the Ukraine crisis. At the same time, the president of Ukraine did not trust Orban enough as a pro-Russian figure and an opponent of European aid to the Kyiv army.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has stated that Vladimir Putin has categorically rejected any ceasefire negotiations and has instead demanded the irreversible demilitarization of Ukraine as a prerequisite for such an agreement, and as military experts say, Putin has clearly demanded the effective surrender of Ukraine. At the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Astana, Kazakhstan, on July 4, Putin dismissed any prospect of negotiating a ceasefire agreement. The Russian leader has repeatedly presented the West as a possible negotiating partner for a ceasefire agreement to force the West to make concessions on Ukraine's sovereignty but has rejected all parties to mediate the Ukraine-Russia deal. Putin's demand for the demilitarization of Ukraine as a prerequisite for a ceasefire is indeed indicative of his strategy. So Putin wants Ukraine to surrender effectively before any ceasefire. He argues that Russia cannot allow the Ukrainian army to use the ceasefire to rebuild its forces. The Institute for the Study of War believes that Russia will use the ceasefire agreement to rebuild and expand its military for future aggression against Ukraine, and Putin's attitude shows that he is confident that by continuing to make progress in Ukraine, he will win and successfully end the war of attrition.

Summary: The fact is that Moscow and Kyiv have entered a quagmire, the outputs of which have decreased with time, adding to the material and spiritual costs of the parties, and it is not a secret that during Hungary's presidency of the European Union, the war in Ukraine will be on the agenda as the most important and complicated challenge; a war that is continuously and increasingly devouring the huge material and human resources of Europe and Ukraine as well as Russia, and it is unlikely that without the opinion of the London-Washington axis, it will be possible to provide a clear perspective of the outcome of this conflict. Of course, the changes in the European Parliament and the results of parliamentary elections in France and England will definitely have a significant effect on how Europe will face the Ukraine crisis.

Ali Bemaneqbali Zarch, Manager of the Eurasian Studies Department

(The opinions expressed are those of the authors and do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of the IPIS)