The year 2024: a busy year in the diplomacy of the Islamic Republic of Iran

The year 2024 will be a complex problematic and busy year in the foreign policy of the Islamic Republic of Iran. In the countrys foreign policy menu affected by international conditions there will be many issues and challenges some of which will be general issues and challenges in the international system and another part will be specific issues of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Part of these developments will be the continuation of the previous developments and some of them will be new developments.

The year 2024 will be a complex, problematic, and busy year in the foreign policy of the Islamic Republic of Iran. In the country's foreign policy menu, affected by international conditions, there will be many issues and challenges, some of which will be general issues and challenges in the international system, and another part will be specific issues of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Part of these developments will be the continuation of the previous developments, and some of them will be new developments.

The most fundamental issue is that Iran's foreign policy will operate in a difficult, evolving, and changing international environment, whose coordinates have important differences with the conditions of the past years. The World Economic Forum's Global Risk Report for 2024 warns that we will face a world that will be affected by continuous shocks. This report depicts the world facing two dangerous crises, climate challenges and conflicts, which affect the whole world.

We live in an unstable and changing world order dominated by highly polarized and antagonistic narratives; former trusts have been eroded, and feelings of security have been replaced by insecurity. The critical situation of the world order is a situation where international cooperation continues to decline. The values and norms that were supposed to lead the world to a better point have become practically ineffective and meaningless with the double behavior of the West and the crimes of the Zionist regime in violation of all the fundamental principles of international law. In a situation where preparation, solidarity, and cooperation are needed to face global crises more than ever, the lack of consensus and cooperation in the polarized world has become a dominant phenomenon and has made the challenges more formidable.

The following are the dominant figures of the current world order and its chaotic conditions:

• Erosion of global norms
• The divided and polarized world without order and organization
• More conflicts along with more impunity
• The distinction between the global north and the global south is becoming more and more obvious.
• The collapse of the global humanitarian system
• Backtracking in international obligations
• Securing the world against the previous trend of normalization
• Re-separating the two spheres of interests and values in favor of the former

This situation, which shows well the erosion of the former order and the struggles and confrontations for the formation of new balances and, as a result of that new order, is a dangerous and threatening environment that prompts countries to use the policy of coalition and alliance and or hedging to take a less expensive way to overcome the situation.

In such a situation, the Islamic Republic of Iran will face a problematic, busy, and possibly adventurous year in its foreign policy. Part of these issues will be the continuation of previous challenges and crises and a new part. Except for unforeseen issues that are always possible, the most important issues and concerns in 2024 will be as follows:

• The disruption of former balances and deterrence in the Middle East was mainly caused by the Al-Aqsa storm and the Gaza crisis and the need to form a new space of balance. The destruction of the Zionist regime's balance of deterrence in the region, on the one hand, and the loss of a part of the balancing capacity of the resistance movement in the region are important elements of this situation. The brutal attack of the Israeli regime on the embassy of the Islamic Republic of Iran in Damascus was caused by the turmoil of this regime due to the destruction of the balance of the former threat and disruption of the nervous system of this regime, that the response of the Islamic Republic of Iran and the course of subsequent developments will form an important part of the agenda of the foreign policy of the Islamic Republic of Iran in the new year.
• America's strategic wandering: the Biden administration, on the one hand, due to the proximity of the presidential elections and the growing threat of Trump's return domestically, and on the other hand, due to the loss of America's global prestige in the war in Ukraine and Gaza and the further weakening of the rule-based global order by its leadership is under pressure, and it exhibits confusing and disorderly policies and behaviors which can be interpreted as strategic wandering. Under the influence of these conditions, the nervous system of America's foreign policy is involved in cognitive and cognitive problems that lead to wrong and costly decisions. Of course, the Islamic Republic of Iran can also be the subject of these wrong decisions.
• Europe's psycho-strategic crisis: Europe is in a deadlock in its most important and sensitive strategic test after the Second World War, i.e., the issue of Ukraine, for which it has a dignified but also an existential aspect and emotional and unrealistic behaviors still dominate its behaviors. The approach of Trump's threat and the very likely change of American policies in the Ukraine war have put Europe in a more difficult psychological atmosphere. Considering the characteristics of Iran-Europe relations, which are going through challenging times, and at the same time, the inherent value and importance of Iran-Europe relations, managing relations in this situation is more sensitive and difficult.
• The Ukraine War and Russia's strategic decisions: While the Ukraine War has reached an equilibrium point with Russia's relative superiority, Russia's behavior and decisions in consolidating what it has or a development approach in adding to it will have a great effect on the process of international developments, and it can change the situation from the beginning of a challenging political process to the development of a more direct conflict between Russia and Europe. In the meantime, the accusation of Iran's association with Russia will continue to be a major challenge to the country's foreign policy.
• Gaza crisis: The war in Gaza and the aggression of the Zionist regime will continue to be one of the vital issues of the country's foreign policy in 2024. While the Israeli regime has not achieved most of its strategic goals due to unprecedented crimes against the people of Gaza and is involved in numerous domestic crises, the possibility of a full-scale attack on Rafah and its implications on the one hand and the policy of assassinating the leaders of the resistance front as well as our country's advisory forces in the region, on the other hand, will put the Islamic Republic of Iran and the resistance movement in front of unforeseen circumstances. The important thing is not to upset the existing relative balance in favor of the Zionist regime and to maintain the maximum strength of the flow of resistance. Maintaining the superiority of the resistance narrative against the failed compromise narrative will also be a strategic issue.
• The nuclear case and the issue of lifting sanctions: due to the strategic wandering of the Trump administration and the over-emotional behavior of Europe in the issue of the Ukraine war and accusing our country, there is no prospect for the revival of the JCPOA and the agreement to lift sanctions. At the same time, Western pressures on our country in the nuclear case are conceivable. Suppose the situation goes in the direction where the Western parties use the trigger mechanism. In that case, the Islamic Republic of Iran will be in a situation where it will have to make a strategic and decisive decision on the issue of nuclear power.
• The process of regionalism and thematic coalitions: one of the main features of the changing global order is the formation of new coalitions based on the special interests of actors in thematic areas, which at the same time is an attempt to make the global order more pluralistic and the role of actors in it and hearing new voices. In recent years, the Islamic Republic of Iran, by becoming a member of two important agreements, Shanghai and BRICS, as well as the Eurasian Economic Union, has taken great steps in the direction of strengthening these trends and diversifying the country's capacities in foreign relations. The year 2024 can be the year of further stabilization of this trend.
• The issue of Afghanistan: After being forgotten for a long time due to other crises, Afghanistan has returned to the table of negotiations and international diplomatic campaigns, and there has been a traffic of meetings about it. In the meantime, despite the existence of two narratives based on the initiative of the regional contact group and the international contact group, the first narrative, which is mainly proposed and pursued by the Islamic Republic of Iran and has achieved good results, can be used as the focus of work with Afghanistan to change and improve the situation and to stabilize the role of our country in the centrality of Afghanistan's developments.
• Neighborhood policy: Neighborhood policy, as the axial concept of the 13th government's foreign policy work program, has had valuable achievements so far and will continue to play an axial role in the diplomatic campaigns of the diplomatic system in the new year. One of the most important positive developments in this framework was the renewal of relations with Saudi Arabia and efforts to deepen these relations, which had important effects on our country's relations with the southern neighbors of the Persian Gulf. It is expected that in the new year, the country's foreign policy agenda for confidence-building and regional cooperation initiatives in the Persian Gulf should be productive and dynamic.
• Economic diplomacy: In the motto of the year and the words of the Supreme Leader of the Revolution, popularization of the economy and taking advantage of the huge capacities of the people's presence in the economy was the dominant concept. At the same time, in order to realize this goal, the diplomatic system will play an important role in planning and facilitation to activate external capacities as much as possible. One of the main axes of activities in this framework is the use of membership in economic agreements, which will play an important role in passing sanctions and building new capacities in foreign economic relations.
• The US presidential election: One of the most important and perhaps most influential developments that will have serious effects on all of the above is the result of the US presidential election. Trump's return to the presidency, the possibility of which has become more serious and likely than ever, will add new challenges to our country's foreign policy agenda, especially in the economic field, and will take a lot of energy from the country's diplomacy. Naturally, predicting the conditions affected by this development and planning to face it will be an important concern and agenda in the country's foreign policy menu.

(The opinions expressed are those of the authors and do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of the IPIS)