Europe Heading Towards Divergence
The UK’s withdrawal from the European Union and the consequent geopolitical impacts, the outbreak of the Coronavirus pandemic and the EU officials’ poor handling of the crisis, Trump’s policies and behavior towards Europe and his attempts to further weaken the European Union, the rise in unilateralism, and the decline of multilateralism would result in division and divergence within the European Union.
The UK’s withdrawal from the European Union and the consequent geopolitical impacts, the outbreak of the Coronavirus pandemic and the EU officials’ poor handling of the crisis, Trump’s policies and behavior towards Europe and his attempts to further weaken the European Union, the rise in unilateralism, and the decline of multilateralism would result in division and divergence within the European Union.
- The UK officially dropped out of the European Union’s institutions on January 30, 2020. The British exit from the European Union would adversely affect the political situation in Europe and strengthen retreat from the EU. Europe will possibly see the withdrawal of other EU members in the years to come.
The UK’s foreign policy before the Brexit was based upon three pillars: transatlantic policy, European leadership, and multilateralism. The UK used to work as a bridge between the US and Europe. But after the UK’s withdrawal from the European Union, multilateralism would be weakened and London could no more proceed with the policy of alignment with the US and influence over the EU’s stances. Britain has moved closer to the US in the foreign policy, security and economic arenas, and has called for a stronger NATO and more access to the US markets.
Moreover, Brexit would have far-reaching geopolitical impacts on Europe’s domestic developments as well as the political, economic, security, defense, financial, and energy issues. Brexit will have negative impacts on Ireland, Northern Ireland, and Scotland. The European Union will become smaller and weaker without Britain, and its influence in the international arena will dwindle if it fails to find a suitable substitute (Russia) for Britain as a member of the union.
- The outbreak of the Coronavirus pandemic
After the outbreak of COVID-19 in China in late December 2019 and the subsequent spread of the disease to a number of Asian countries, the first cases of Coronavirus were detected in Europe in mid-February 2020 and plunged the continent into crisis. Since early March, the EU member states began to close their border, tighten control at home, and take other unilateral and nationalist measures to prevent the delivery of medical supplies to the other member states instead of employing and using the experiences of the other nations and taking coordinated and joint action in the battle with the Coronavirus. The EU officials also procrastinated and dragged their feet, turning Europe into one of the epicenters of the Coronavirus outbreak in the world and making many people fall victim to the pandemic every day. According to the authentic global statistics, Italy, Spain, and France have recorded the highest number of Coronavirus infections and the death toll in Europe. Italy and Spain have the feeling that neither the European Union nor the European allies have supported them. Sixty percent of Italians believe that the European Union has not provided any support for them.
France is also experiencing a situation akin to Britain. Although Germany has acted successfully in managing the crisis thanks to its strong economy, it has received criticism from Brussels and a number of its European allies for lack of assistance that would satisfy their expectations.
The remarks, actions, and performance of the EU authorities and member states in the face of the pandemic reveal how extensively and unimaginably the phenomenon has affected the union. Such hideous virus has unmasked the true face of the European Union in the most beautiful manner and has disclosed the block’s made-up face in foreign relations, economy, trade, culture, industry, health, mass media, information systems, and, above all, the true extent of lack of commitment to morality and solidarity. The remarks made by the president of the European Commission that went viral in the virtual space reveal her deep concerns about the deceptive behavior and the mean and inhumane actions of the EU companies and member states. After the UK’s withdrawal from the EU, the Coronavirus pandemic is the second major crisis that has plagued the union in such a short time and has posed a serious health challenge to the block.
The unilateral measures and nationalist policies of a number of the EU states have not only created deep rifts in European solidarity and have questioned the unity among the EU states, but have also harmed the mutual trust among them. Considering that the Coronavirus pandemic has adversely affected various aspects of human life and has become the biggest crisis in Europe after the Second World War, it may result in divergence and division within the union and the failure of multilateralism. The outbreak of Coronavirus pandemic has seriously questioned the durability of alliances, as a series of theorists have raised a strong possibility of revival of nationalism and strengthening of national governments. They believe that the Coronavirus crisis would push the world towards metamorphosis and another modern order.
- The US government’s policy on the European Union
The United States’ foreign policy during Trump’s tenure has driven the US relations and cooperation with Europe into crisis and a new stage. Trump considers Europe as a serious rival for the US, not an ally and partner. Thus, he is making great efforts to force this rival out of the international and global developments. Trump’s overt support for the British withdrawal from the European Union, dividing the continent into new and old Europe and his push for its dissolution, the withdrawal from the JCPOA as a major achievement of the EU in the common foreign and security policy and ignoring Europe’s security, the withdrawal from a number of international treaties and agreements, strengthening unilateralism and weakening multilateralism, aggravating the trade conflicts, resorting to the policy of sanctions against the world countries, and its consequent impacts on the European economy and trade have caused a split in the relations between Europe and the US.
The fact that Europe needs the US has prevented its independent role. In other terms, Europe has lost its independent identity.
Should Trump win a second term in the US presidential elections, the course of divergence and division in Europe will accelerate.
- Weakening multilateralism and strengthening unilateralism
The Coronavirus pandemic has had significant impacts on multilateralism and globalization. The US government does not consider globalization to be in favor of its national interests at presentand insists on various aspects of American nationalism. The US move to weaken the international institutions such as the World Health Organization amid the Coronavirus pandemic, Trump’s policy on Europe and his attempts to further weaken the European Union, divide the continent into new and old Europe, establish bilateral relations with every single European country, strengthen unilateralism, and weaken multilateralism would have enormous impacts on the future of the EU. The Coronavirus crisis also revealed that unilateralism has priority over multilateralismand that nationalism in Europe has strengthened while regionalism has weakened. Considering that the realities on the ground count in the international system, the UK’s withdrawal from the European Union and its far-reaching geopolitical consequences, the Coronavirus pandemic and its large outbreak in Europe, the EU institutions’ incompetence, the unilateral and uncoordinated measures by the EU member states, and the US’ new policies on Europe indicate that multilateralism is weakening. If the European Union fails to overcome these crises, we will witness further divergence and division in Europe.
(The opinions expressed are those of the authors and do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of the IPIS)