More than four decades after the outbreak of civil wars in Afghanistan in the wake of its occupation by the Soviet Union and nearly two decades after the US-led attack by the International Security Assistance Force, Afghanistan has been constantly grappling with bloody clashes and violence that still persist.

 Considering the developments over the past couple of months, particularly since late last year, it seems that Afghanistan has reached an important and historic milestone in the path to restoration of peace and calm.The peace agreement between the US government and the Taliban that was signed in Doha on February 29, 2020, was a major development that is considered to have influenced the peace process in Afghanistan. According to the agreement, the US has undertaken to withdraw its troops from Afghanistan, while the Taliban has pledged to refrain from terrorist operations against the US and its interests and to prevent the terrorist groups, particularly al-Qaeda, from operating in Afghanistan.

 The Americans said the purpose of the agreement is to reduce violence in order to prepare the ground for a possible ceasefire and launch the intra-Afghan peace talks. To reach that goal, they have agreed on a deal requiring the Afghan government to release 5,000 Taliban prisoners in a prisoner exchange for 1,000 government soldiers held by the Taliban. Since the Afghan government was not involved in the Doha agreements and signing of the peace deal, there was a resistance to the prisoner exchange and the plan on how and when to carry out the deal, so that the prisoner swap did not take place on schedule. However, the Afghan government has accelerated the process of releasing the Taliban prisoners with goodwill and with the purpose of encouraging the other side to cease violence and start the peace negotiations and has so far released more than 4,000 Taliban prisoners. In turn, the Taliban say they have released 600 government inmates and have handed them over to the Afghan government.

It is remarkable that after the achievement of the Doha agreement and over the past four months, the cycle of violence has continued, except for a short period of a few days on the occasion of Eid al-Fitr, and has even escalated dramatically in recent weeks.Reports from Afghan governmental institutions suggest that the number of victims of violence over the past recent weeks has surpassed 250 deaths and injuries. In the meantime, the Taliban have ceased attacks against the American forces and their allies. Therefore, one of the deficiencies in the Doha agreement is that the deal has not imposed any commitment to the Taliban regarding attacks on the government forces or the military and civilian sites.

 In general, it appears that the Doha agreement has strengthened the position of the Taliban in Afghanistan’s domestic arena and at the international level, and has encouraged the Taliban to adopt a harsher and tougher tone against the government in expressing its demands.

 One of the major developments that could have improved the government’s position vis-à-vis the Taliban was the signing of an agreement between the Afghan political leaders, namely Ashraf Ghani and Abdullah Abdullah. While the Taliban was feeling more powerful in Afghanistan’s security, military, and political arenas after signing the Doha agreement, the disagreement between the political leaders over the results of the presidential election and the outbreak of a political impasse had pushed the Afghan government into a difficult situation and a weak position. Fortunately, the two leaders resolved the conflict by signing a political deal in light of a proper understanding of the sensitivity and seriousness of the situation, with the efforts from the discerning and well-wishing Afghan figures, and under the auspices of certain countries, including the Islamic Republic of Iran. At that juncture, the Islamic Republic of Iran made efforts to bring the views of the two Afghan sides closer together for reaching an agreement. Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif made multiple contacts with Mr. Ghani, Mr. Abdullah, and counterparts from influential regional states, such as Russia, Qatar, India, and a number of European countries. The Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs' special envoy for Afghanistan Mohammad EbrahimTaherian also paid visits to Kabul and held intensive consultations with the Afghan officials and influential figures.

The signing of the political agreement has provided an opportunity for the formation of a coalition government or reconciliation with the participation of the political forces inside the Afghan establishment and also for the formation of the National Reconciliation High Council in order to launch the intra-Afghan peace negotiations. However, after a month and a half sincethe signing of the agreement, the process of formation of the cabinet has not been completed and the National Reconciliation High Council has not determined its line-up either. There is no information about any progress in implementing other articles of the agreement. On the other hand, the signing of the political agreement has created disputes among the supporters of both Ghani and Abdullah which may further aggravate the situation and weaken the position of the Afghan government. As a result, the Taliban and a number of other opposition groups and critics have taken advantage of the situation to express their demands more seriously. There was news that HezbiIslami (the Islamic Party) has announced that it would avoid the peace talks if all of the party’s inmates are not released from the government prisons.

 A series of factors such as:

1. The mental and spiritual atmosphere among the Taliban about winning a great victory over the US by signing the peace agreement;

2. Reduction in the military forces of the US and its allies in Afghanistan which has changed the balance of power in the military sphere in favor of the Taliban;

3. The release of the Taliban prisoners that would provide the group with 5,000 loyal and experienced forces;

4. Lingering differences within the government and the delay in the immediate implementation of the political agreement and formation of the new government’s cabinet as well as the National Reconciliation High Council;

5. The lowered morale of the government military and law enforcement forces; and

6. Insufficient action by the influential regional and international actors to help expedite the launch of peace negotiationshave made a vague and complicated prospect for the developments in Afghanistan. A number of reports from the American and international military and civilian institutions have also confirmed such prospects. The following factors appear to be influential and effective in preventing the continuation of such process:

- Expediting the process of completion of the true coalition government and the National Reconciliation High Council’s line-up on the basis of the political agreement;

- Supports from various political groups, including the proponents, opponents, and critics, for the coalition government’s stance on the peace process and accelerating and beginning the negotiations;

- The cessation of irresponsible measures by the United States and the adoption of a responsible stance on the continuation of violence in Afghanistan;

- The continuation of financial and economic support from the countries that have assumed the responsibility and the sponsor states for the Afghan government;

- And the efforts by the regional and international actors to convince the Taliban to reduce violence and immediately start the peace negotiations.

In this course, the Islamic Republic of Iran has played a positive role by supporting the Afghan government through continued friendly relations in all fields and also by encouraging the Taliban to stop violence and accelerate the launch of peace talks through direct negotiations between the Foreign Ministry’s special envoy for Afghanistan and the Taliban authorities in Doha. It appears that the Afghan government can enjoy the existing proper situation for the continuation of the Islamic Republic of Iran’s constructive efforts at present.

(The opinions expressed are those of the authors and do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of the IPIS)